Predicting Galaxy’s Edge crowds

zooey

zooey

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I’m planning on going to disneyland in September next year, and unless they push it I believe SWGE will have been open for a few months. Post Labor Day, post school being back in session, and post D23 expo. Crowd Calendar says 2s & 3s.
Obviously that sounds too low.
So my question is there a ballpark example of a new offering even close to this popular and how did that affect the park in an ongoing way that we could compare data? I guess the best would be Harry Potter and how that affected Universal before and after. Or maybe Cars Land but I realize that’s not even the same league.
Not sure if there’s any mutterings of internal expectations as I’m sure Disney has done their own internal study.
Anyway, just trying to gauge how different this trip could be than the information I have now and the experience I’ve had in the past. Thank you!
 
winstongator

winstongator

Well-Known Member
I’m going to be in SoCal in July, so a slightly worse but similar calculation. Ok, it’ll be much worse then with kids out of school. I’d look to Pandora at WDW as some estimate. Lines were crazy for a while, but I rode Flight of Passage standby about 6 weeks post open with a 2 hr 15 min wait - to show the craze, that wasn’t ‘that bad’. The big difference is that flight of passage was my main draw to the land that day, but Star Wars will get people coming with no intention of riding either. For wdw, and toy story land when the land hit its guest limit they were only letting people in if they have fast passes (correct me if I’m wrong). I don’t know how they’ll do that in DL. Is there going to be a giant line outside the land just to get in? I don’t think they want crowds suffocating the themed areas.

Jim Hill and Len Testa have discussed how Disney might manage the crowds, but its been speculation.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I don't think anyone on this forum knows for sure what crowd levels will be 11 months from now. But overall there is not really an off-season anymore, at least not a traditional one. I say expect the worse and hope for the best.

So expect 7-10s and hope for 4-6s, but will likely not be 2-3s that is almost guaranteed.
 
The Pho

The Pho

Well-Known Member
On these forums, I've seen it reported that Disney's internal projections are expecting 6-8 hour lines to get into the land and on one of the rides 12 months in. Which is well beyond anything prior.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The Pho said:
On these forums, I've seen it reported that Disney's internal projections are expecting 6-8 hour lines to get into the land and on one of the rides 12 months in. Which is well beyond anything prior.
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I'm doubtful on that for DLR, not 1 year after opening.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I don't buy the worst case scenarios if I'm being honest. It's going to be a mad house when it opens, it's going to be very busy three months in, but I think the implication is that it's going to be a mad house for an entire year is false. If it's honestly that busy for a full year the opening period is going to see literally all day waits with people camping out overnight to get in. That (hopefully) seems ridiculous. Grand opening weekend, yes, but after that?

I've done quite a few these big offerings in the 1-3 month post-opening timeframe (Pandora, Diagon Alley). Including Carsland at the end of August, which (for a non-D23 year) is probably pretty similar to start of September.

The new offering itself is still going to be very busy, regardless of crowds. Expect 3 hour lines at peak. I do NOT think there is going to be ongoing capacity closures to the land itself after the immediate opening period. Select VERY busy days (like holidays or when the park is actually getting close to phased closures) may have capacity closures to the land.

The rest of the park itself will be totally status quo and/or pleasant at that time of year. Fastpass will be consumed quickly (as it was for RSR in this period of time), but totally obtainable. If you are going for several days you easily should be able to obtain a couple of rides on both attractions and probably will want to face each standby at an optimal time for the sake of seeing the queues.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
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planet z crowds​
 

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Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Of course if everyone thinks it will be packed then everyone will stay away. This happen at USH with Harry Potter. Hopefully the rest of the park will feel light. I think it will be mostly crowed because of ride down time and capacity issues.
 
R

Ryan120420

Well-Known Member
Phrubruh said:
Of course if everyone thinks it will be packed then everyone will stay away. This happen at USH with Harry Potter. Hopefully the rest of the park will feel light. I think it will be mostly crowed because of ride down time and capacity issues.
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The thing with USH and Potter is USH eliminated Annual Passes 11 months prior to WWOHP opening. They brought APs back a month or two before opening at an extremely high price with a ton of blackout dates and restrictions compared to the old APs. These changes made for a lightly crowded USH during the first few months of Potter. It also caused USH to make what seemed like an endless amount of changes to their AP structure for the first year of Potter until they found the balance they were looking for.

Other than separating the blackout calendars, Disneyland really hasn't made a drastic change in either the AP price or benefits like USH did and we are less than 8 months out from opening day.

The park is going to be an absolute madhouse.
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Ryan120420 said:
The thing with USH and Potter is USH eliminated Annual Passes 11 months prior to WWOHP opening. They brought APs back a month or two before opening at an extremely high price with a ton of blackout dates and restrictions compared to the old APs. These changes made for a lightly crowded USH during the first few months of Potter. It also caused USH to make what seemed like an endless amount of changes to their AP structure for the first year of Potter until they found the balance they were looking for.

Other than separating the blackout calendars, Disneyland really hasn't made a drastic change in either the AP price or benefits like USH did and we are less than 8 months out from opening day.

The park is going to be an absolute madhouse.
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Disney did exactly that before DCA's opening. How that turn out?
 
Mouse Trap

Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
I think anything prior to WDW SWL opening will be absolutely crazy. A few months following WDW’s open I think there will be a noticeable drop off. I would t be surprised to see the majority of the Park feel slightly more crowded, with the real madness being concentrated at SWL.
 
S

shambolicdefending

Well-Known Member
Ryan120420 said:
Other than separating the blackout calendars, Disneyland really hasn't made a drastic change in either the AP price or benefits like USH did and we are less than 8 months out from opening day.
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Well, I think the blackout calendar changes are pretty significant. And, Disneyland usually does their annual price increases in February so I think a drastic price hike is still very possible.
 
beachlover4444

beachlover4444

Well-Known Member
They built Avatar flight of passage with a queue meant for atleast a 3 hour wait. That attraction had a 2-3 hour wait time since it's been open. It's almost impossible to get a fast pass for. Even still now when castmembers give out extra fastpasses for issues etc those are not good for that ride. I would think for atleast the first year, SWGE will have atleast a 2 hour wait any time of the year. It's the new thing everyone is gonna wanna see and ride. That kinda means other ride times should go down hopefully.
 
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Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
SaskDaddy said:
What is the likelihood of MaxPass being an option for these attractions when GE first opens?
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98-100%

There is like a 2% or less chance they won't use MaxPass when it very first opens. In fact some around here have predicted that FP for SW:GE will be MaxPass only.

However I kind of like the idea of no FP/MaxPass at all for like the first week. Everyone should sit in the same line and suffer like everyone else. :p
 

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