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[ToTBellHop]

I'm willing to bet attendance is soft all across Orlando. People are delaying vacations entirely. I've been planning to go to Anaheim/Los Angeles for a while now and still debating if I should go this year, or just do it all next year until after SWL opens.

I suspect it will get worse before better. We are skipping WDW altogether in 2019 to go to Disneyland in August of that year instead.

 

[winstongator]

Let me clarify: I wasn’t making an economic comparison to ten years ago...I was talking about operational and price strategies and how things have changed. Without droning on...I think 3 major changes have completely altered the experience and expectations:

1. The self labeled “moving to luxury” movement over the last 5+
2. The spacing of crowds over a 12
Month calendar...it’s been very effective with a mixed strategy or marketing and limited period hooks throughout the year.
3. The prebooked, autmoted ride and reservation systems...that’s a bigger game changer than I had originally anticipated because it’s driving crowds unknowingly to additional sales.

Housing market flattened out 1/2007...Lehman went 8/12/08...big bottom out mid 2009-2012 when the masses went WDW “coupon crazy”...those were of course unique bellweathers

WDW, like all businesses, is going where the money is. Share of income to the top 10% is up considerably since the 50's, 60's and 70's. True in other countries too. Spreading the crowds is good, but I think it is more trying to pull the new attendance into the less crowded times.

I'm willing to bet attendance is soft all across Orlando. People are delaying vacations entirely. I've been planning to go to Anaheim/Los Angeles for a while now and still debating if I should go this year, or just do it all next year until after SWL opens.

Have you seen the attendance numbers for 2017?

 

[drod1985]

I suspect it will get worse before better. We are skipping WDW altogether in 2019 to go to Disneyland in August of that year instead.

Are you going specifically for the opening of Galaxy's Edge? Cause DLR is gonna be wild with the GE opening around that time.

 

[Tavernacle12]

I'm willing to bet attendance is soft all across Orlando. People are delaying vacations entirely. I've been planning to go to Anaheim/Los Angeles for a while now and still debating if I should go this year, or just do it all next year until after SWL opens.

This is only anecdotal, but this is the first year neither my family nor my best friend’s family have gone to WDW since, like, 2012. Some years we even went multiple times (we are not locals). I’m only going next year because my family is paying, and won’t go back after until SWL dies down (late 2020 at the earliest).

Not enough is new AND too much of what I love, at least, has been changed. AND prices have gone up. I’d love to go on HM and wander aimlessly around World Showcase but not enough to spend what I’d need to get there.

That being said, if Disney gave us some deal with cheap all-star rooms and tickets we’d be back in an instant.

 

[aladdin2007]

This is only anecdotal, but this is the first year neither my family nor my best friend’s family have gone to WDW since, like, 2012. Some years we even went multiple times (we are not locals). I’m only going next year because my family is paying, and won’t go back after until SWL dies down (late 2020 at the earliest).

Not enough is new AND too much of what I love, at least, has been changed. AND prices have gone up. I’d love to go on HM and wander aimlessly around World Showcase but not enough to spend what I’d need to get there.

That being said, if Disney gave us some deal with cheap all-star rooms and tickets we’d be back in an instant.

I sometimes wonder if that is starting to catch up with Disney, I hear a lot of people I talk to say well thats not the same, or they did away with that, or that is gone, nothing is like it use to be there etc etc.....At some point it doesn't feel like Disney anymore, and in some ways in some areas it sure is going that direction. Resort rooms being just one example. Things are becoming too generic and less Disney, and I think its starting to show. My own feeling and observations of course, but anyone else feel the same?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I sometimes wonder if that is starting to catch up with Disney, I hear a lot of people I talk to say well thats not the same, or they did away with that, or that is gone, nothing is like it use to be there etc etc.....At some point it doesn't feel like Disney anymore, and in some ways in some areas it sure is going that direction. Resort rooms being just one example. Things are becoming too generic and less Disney, and I think its starting to show. My own feeling and observations of course, but anyone else feel the same?

I argue this all the time and get Econ textbook nonsense...

When they are pushing all the mods and values up...cause the whole place is “luxury” now ...

And they are increasing ticket and food prices to upper end cost levels

And they are focused on upsells and special tickets only and haven’t paid any attention to normal operation or that the number of attractions per crowd has declined...


...then there’s going to be a reckoning. Disney parks are MASS market things...you need high volume to make it work. Which means there will always be the need to have it at least affordable to those that don’t fancy themselves elite. Because “elite” have other places to go to...and there isn’t an endless supply moving forward.

 

[WDWTank]

I like HS because of Fantasmic! I have not went to Epcot in months. There is only so much of Frozen I can see.

Did they not do the Arts festival this year?

I thought that they did the Arts festival.

 

[Biff215]

I suspect it will get worse before better. We are skipping WDW altogether in 2019 to go to Disneyland in August of that year instead.

I was considering the same thing for our summer trip until I realized SWL would be open at DL and not WDW. While you could argue DL is better equipped to handle the crowds (more attractions than DHS), it does sound like it’s going to be insane there anyway.

Guess I’ll enjoy the potentially smaller crowds at WDW before avoiding it completely in 2020. Might have to go with a non-Disney trip that summer for the first time in over 20 years.

 

[Tavernacle12]

I sometimes wonder if that is starting to catch up with Disney, I hear a lot of people I talk to say well thats not the same, or they did away with that, or that is gone, nothing is like it use to be there etc etc.....At some point it doesn't feel like Disney anymore, and in some ways in some areas it sure is going that direction. Resort rooms being just one example. Things are becoming too generic and less Disney, and I think its starting to show. My own feeling and observations of course, but anyone else feel the same?

I HATE the new All Stars rooms. Not that the old rooms were amazing, but they actually felt like Disney, instead of generic trash. Having recently been to DisneySea the fact that WDW shares so much packaging with Land frustrates me even more (among other things, obviously, but that fits this thread best).

 

[surfsupdon]

I was just at Epcot on Thursday and Saturday, June 7 and 9. It was TERRIFIC!

I literally have never seen it so empty. Even around noon Soarin was a 30min posted wait, but actual was 12. TT singles line was about 10, MS, Imag, LwtL and Nemo were walk ons in the afternoon. I got on Frozen as well in about 20mins.

It was a great day and worked out really well bc I didn’t book Epcot FP for my 4 day trip. Luckily too, bc you didn’t need them!!

 

[ToTBellHop]

I was considering the same thing for our summer trip until I realized SWL would be open at DL and not WDW. While you could argue DL is better equipped to handle the crowds (more attractions than DHS), it does sound like it’s going to be insane there anyway.

Guess I’ll enjoy the potentially smaller crowds at WDW before avoiding it completely in 2020. Might have to go with a non-Disney trip that summer for the first time in over 20 years.

You may be on to something. Perhaps I’ll delay California to 2020...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m gonna throw this out there for discussion: I don’t think the Star Wars boost is going to be as large as everyone is assuming...just a hunch.

 

[Captain Barbossa]

I’m gonna throw this out there for discussion: I don’t think the Star Wars boost is going to be as large as everyone is assuming...just a hunch.

I don't think it's a hunch. I think you're correct.

 

[Epcot '92]

I’m gonna throw this out there for discussion: I don’t think the Star Wars boost is going to be as large as everyone is assuming...just a hunch.

Even though a mediocre IP (not the land, the IP itself being mediocre) caused a 15% attendance increase at DAK? I still think SW:GE is going to at least give it that much of a bump.

 

[LSLS]

Even though a mediocre IP (not the land, the IP itself being mediocre) caused a 15% attendance increase at DAK? I still think SW:GE is going to at least give it that much of a bump.

So the question would be (and I dont have a clue the answer) is how much of that 15% increase was an increase to wdw and how much were people simply cutting a day (or half day) at another park while already there. Basically was there a jump in wdw attendance, or was that pretty stagnant? So will Hollywood studios see a jump that is offset by lower crowds at the other parks.

 

[winstongator]

Even though a mediocre IP (not the land, the IP itself being mediocre) caused a 15% attendance increase at DAK? I still think SW:GE is going to at least give it that much of a bump.

That’s 15% from 7 months. Prob closer to 25% if pandora opened Jan 1.

I’m gonna throw this out there for discussion: I don’t think the Star Wars boost is going to be as large as everyone is assuming...just a hunch.

Depends on what people are estimating. You’ll get full year impact of GE in 2020, as well as continued bump from TSL.,I’d bet DHS draws 14 million in 2020 - 30% more than 2017.

Where I see a more modest bump is from TSL. I don’t see anyone refreshing MDE constantly to get a slinky dog fp, or there being 4hr lines for it. I do expect those things to happen for GE as they did for FoP and Pandora.

 

[coasterphil]

I'm willing to bet attendance is soft all across Orlando. People are delaying vacations entirely. I've been planning to go to Anaheim/Los Angeles for a while now and still debating if I should go this year, or just do it all next year until after SWL opens.

A drop in visitation for Orlando in ‘18 was expected by the CVB and others. So far that seems to be exactly what’s happening. No big draw from any of the major players and lots of stuff on the horizon worth holding off for. The pressure from increasing airfare and gas prices thanks to rising oil isn’t likely to do any favors either.

 

[winstongator]

So the question would be (and I dont have a clue the answer) is how much of that 15% increase was an increase to wdw and how much were people simply cutting a day (or half day) at another park while already there. Basically was there a jump in wdw attendance, or was that pretty stagnant? So will Hollywood studios see a jump that is offset by lower crowds at the other parks.

The numbers are available:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/2017-theme-park-attendance-data.943129/
MK up marginally, DHS slightly down, Epcot up (thought no one goes there anymore). If anything Pandora kept overall WDW attendance from declining.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Even though a mediocre IP (not the land, the IP itself being mediocre) caused a 15% attendance increase at DAK? I still think SW:GE is going to at least give it that much of a bump.

Here’s what I think:

DAK was half opened and In so need of a major addition that it was the perfect spot for a bump...and the land (sans boat ride) is really good. Perfect storm.

Disney is now actively messing with the Star Wars ip...which wasn’t broke prior to 1999 and is now continually being “re-interpreted”...which is the opposite effect.

And I think it’s gonna underwhelm...just a hunch. The two coast dynamic may not play here as well as we thought. The first 100% complete land clone in Disney history.

There will be a bump...but I can see it sputtering.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s 15% from 7 months. Prob closer to 25% if pandora opened Jan 1.


Depends on what people are estimating. You’ll get full year impact of GE in 2020, as well as continued bump from TSL.,I’d bet DHS draws 14 million in 2020 - 30% more than 2017.

Where I see a more modest bump is from TSL. I don’t see anyone refreshing MDE constantly to get a slinky dog fp, or there being 4hr lines for it. I do expect those things to happen for GE as they did for FoP and Pandora.

I actually think toy story will generate more foot traffic than expected...Star Wars will get more trips booked...but I think there are dynamics at play that may not make it the 6 hour wait, $350 a night pop room, waitlist for tickets type deal that I see nearly assumed to be the case daily....it might not be the game changer first predicted.