Orlando Housing Values Over Time

[DocMcHulk]

I am going to try and explain this as best as I can.

Over the last few days, my wife and I have toyed with the idea of potentially moving to Orlando within 5 years (more toward 2015). So, just for kicks we started pricing out homes down there to see what we could potentially get. We came across some REALLY impressive houses in our projected price range ($150,000). They seemed... well, too good to be true for me. So, I did a little research via Zillow.com. Many of these house were once valued/listed at $270,000-$310,000 around 2003-2007. Prior to that, many of them were similar in price to what they are being listed at currently.

So, if I am projecting out housing prices to 2015, what do I do? Do I assume that the 2003-2007 prices were a cause of the our of control housing market and therefor a statistical outlier and assume the 2000 price is more realistic. Or, do I assume that when the market and economy go back up, a good assumption is to find a middle ground in the prices?

Yes, I know every market has it's own variables. Just looking for a little help.

 

[rsoxguy]

Florida is reliant upon the rest of the Nation for a financial recovery. You must keep in mind that we are basically a large playground. We service the rest of the nation with recreational goods (a very broad statement, I know, but basically true). When people's disposable income increases, you will then see the changes to the economy in Florida. Your best gauge is to look at the economic outlook for the Nation, and add two years for Florida. As of now, the real estate market continues to drop for the Sunshine State.

 

[DocMcHulk]

As of now, the real estate market continues to drop for the Sunshine State.

I feel bad for a lot of the home owners down there. Some of these houses I was looking at online were once bought or valued at near $300k and are now at $150k. It's crazy.

 

[Erika]

The May 2010 issue of Money Magazine predicts a recovery year of 2031 for Florida. That's getting back to peak prices, though, so it's a little extreme. And pretty broad, covering the whole state, not individual areas.

I'm in Arizona which is even worse. 2034 for us, whoo-hoo! :lol:

 

[cdunbar]

The May 2010 issue of Money Magazine predicts a recovery year of 2031 for Florida. That's getting back to peak prices, though, so it's a little extreme. And pretty broad, covering the whole state, not individual areas.

I'm in Arizona which is even worse. 2034 for us, whoo-hoo! :lol:

Lovely! :hammer:

 

[Master Yoda]

For the most part you need to throw the data for 2003-2007 out of the window. Housing prices during that time were so far away from normal that it is not even funny and the data is largely useless. House prices will more than likely not be at that level again for 20 years or more. Orlando was one of the harder hit areas in terms of house price drop, but like the rest of the country, is starting to recover. Ideally you would want to get into Orlando sooner rather than later. If you are trying to predict housing prices for 2015 I would think your best bet would be to take the prices you see today and then adjust based on the rate of inflation. I do not see house prices increasing any faster than that for some time.

 

[DocMcHulk]

Thanks for the feedback everyone.
2015... here we come!

 

[DisneyGator]

I'm going to say that Yoda is probably on the right track. I bought a townhome in Orlando in 2003. Around 04-06, I could have sold it for nearly double what I had paid for it--double!!!! If I only knew, right?? I eventually sold the home last year for about 13% less than I paid for it in 2003.

I did buy the home pre-construction, and it was in a very desirable neighborhood and location, so I know that there are parts of Orlando that were hit harder....but I hope this helps!

Orlando is a great place to live though, I really do love it. I wound up moving about an hour away to the east coast, which is where I am originally from, but I would definitely consider living in Orlando again in the future. And trust me, if you move, you will LOVE being so close to WDW!!!! Sometimes it actually drives me crazy knowing that I am only an hour from the parks and I am stuck here at work! :ROFLOL:

Good luck!!

 

[Monty]

An interesting thread. My retirement plan includes selling my home here and using the proceeds to purchase a vacation home in the vicinity of WDW. I would then rent here year-round, but spend my winters in the vacation home, renting it out during the warmer season when I'll be back in Canada.

Based on the current market, my plan is absolutely brilliant! The Canadian housing market was slowed, but not depressed by the economic downturn [our banks have been considerably more regulated than those in the US]. So while my house did not increase in value as much as expected, it never went down. If the market around WDW isn't expected to recover much beyond inflation over the next few years, my plan works even better than originally forecast.

Even a moderate recovery over the next ten years is a blessing for me. I retire in 2019.

 

[DocMcHulk]

Even a moderate recovery over the next ten years is a blessing for me. I retire in 2019.

We can be neighbors. lol

 

[DocMcHulk]

The more and more I look at these houses available, I'm REALLY wishing I had my IT certifications done. I'd move tomorrow if I could.

 

[Master Yoda]

The more and more I look at these houses available, I'm REALLY wishing I had my IT certifications done. I'd move tomorrow if I could.

I know the feeling. Real estate in and Orlando is a steal right now. There was simply an insane amount of development underway when the bubble popped and a good bit of that remains unsold.