On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

flynnibus

Premium Member
Last year in Sweden, I compared paystubs with a colleague there.

His take home - as a percent of his salary - was within a few dollars of mine.

Meanwhile he doesn't have to worry about health copays, deductibles, etc.

But you don't have 25% vat on most items... and massive taxes on food/achohol and all kinds of social 'steering' taxing.

Those societies don't have obcene income taxes on the middle of the pack.. it's on the high earners. They basically try to lift everyone to a good median level... and get more extreme the further you get away from the sweet spot. They aim for high quality of life, and excess is taxed excessively.
 

mkt

Maleante Izquierdozo
Premium Member
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But you don't have 25% vat on most items... and massive taxes on food/achohol and all kinds of social 'steering' taxing.

Those societies don't have obcene income taxes on the middle of the pack.. it's on the high earners. They basically try to lift everyone to a good median level... and get more extreme the further you get away from the sweet spot. They aim for high quality of life, and excess is taxed excessively.

Honestly, I didn't find prices for food and alcohol to be too far away from what I already pay in an expensive city. I actually found some hard liquor bargains at Systembolaget.
 

mikejs78

Premium Member
Here's the thing about Disney's parks in China: They're in trouble. It is political trouble and it is financial trouble every time the CCP gets involved.

I'm not shocked nothing was said about the parks today (Shanghai is open notwithstanding), but there will not be silence on this issue for much longer. Disney is in a *very* weak state and the people they ****ed off across the ocean are taking advantage of it. To say nothing of the drama the Trump government can make.

There are billions of Disney's dollars at risk in these assets. Real dollars. Not asset credits or write-downs for the earnings statement.
Repeating the same incorrect fact over and over again doesn't make it true, just because you want it to be so. They mentioned Shanghai several times and its contributions to income - not just that "they're open". They did not mention Paris or Tokyo.. So by your logic, those parks are in trouble and Shanghai is doing just fine.
 

brb1006

Well-Known Member
Here's the thing about Disney's parks in China: They're in trouble. It is political trouble and it is financial trouble every time the CCP gets involved.

I'm not shocked nothing was said about the parks today (Shanghai is open notwithstanding), but there will not be silence on this issue for much longer. Disney is in a *very* weak state and the people they ****ed off across the ocean are taking advantage of it. To say nothing of the drama the Trump government can make.

There are billions of Disney's dollars at risk in these assets. Real dollars. Not asset credits or write-downs for the earnings statement.
Me waiting for the new thread

You're just teasing us with the new thread aren't you? ;)
 

brb1006

Well-Known Member
Multiple things happening at once.

Disney didn't brag to Wall St that its gonna eliminate 10% of its workforce in a giant reduction. They also are also laying off seemingly anyone involved with new projects at the parks as they are not happening. Indeed, Disney's grip on spending is so tight they aren't even paying contractors by and large.

Universal Creative is basically a skeleton crew operation until the world improves. Some of the gossip alleges that 70% of UC got laid off.

Next year, you're gonna see thousands less Orlando resident CMs in Orlando. They will lose their jobs. They will be gone. Tourism is not coming back -- not like people are wishing it will. Disney did everything they could not to extend guidance to how the parks could perform in the future. For good reason.
If that's true, then Happy 50th Birthday Walt Disney World
 

mikejs78

Premium Member
We’re not going to get it because people keep “calling him out” because Disney didn’t reveal much in the way of bad news.
If massive layoffs had happened, there's no way we wouldn't have heard about it. Despite the doom and gloom, Disney beat expectations, has a huge amount of cash on hand, and managed a small profit. Shanghai is doing better than WDW. It makes sense to question @pheneix at this point - nothing he's said has panned out.
 

Brer Oswald

Well-Known Member
If massive layoffs had happened, there's no way we wouldn't have heard about it. Despite the doom and gloom, Disney beat expectations, has a huge amount of cash on hand, and managed a small profit. Shanghai is doing better than WDW. It makes sense to question @pheneix at this point - nothing he's said has panned out.
To be fair, he did say that they didn’t happen yet before the conference. If I were running TWDC, I probably would wait on the lay offs until after the earnings call.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
If massive layoffs had happened, there's no way we wouldn't have heard about it. Despite the doom and gloom, Disney beat expectations, has a huge amount of cash on hand, and managed a small profit. Shanghai is doing better than WDW. It makes sense to question @pheneix at this point - nothing he's said has panned out.

Well... Iger *could* be sitting the dark stewing in shame!
 

Mrtko

Member
That's what Net Positive means as per the definition they are using. If they can cover at least the variable costs then they are better off staying open than being closed. EG. If fixed costs are $100, and I can sell a ticket for $120, with variable costs of $110, I am covering my variable costs and contributing $10 towards fixed cost. Not a way to run a business long term obviously, but in the short term, given the current world situation, it's the best of the possible worst-case scenarios.

PS - sorry if I'm insulting your intelligence with the simple example. Not my intention at all, but I don't know your level of financial literacy
Simple is good and your reply was appreciated.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Disney is fine.

This is what they say every earnings call. They did before the pandemic, and they will continue to do so.

Earning Calls exist to tell investors what they want to hear and drum up media attention. It's mostly PR/marketing fluff.

What was trending on twitter after the call? Mulan's Disney+ release.

They don't want you thinking about hard numbers. Or the long term impact of this recession. Just what's new at DIS.
 

MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
As usual, the truth will be somewhere between the OP’s doom and gloom and a pixie duster’s alternate reality.

For the parks, as I’ve said before, they announced there were reopening, bookings were fine, then COVID cases spiked and travel restrictions appeared, causing many cancellations. They briefly considered reclosing until COVID numbers started improving. Now, with the state and local government’s blessing, they are no longer entertaining reclosure, so we are in a phase of mitigating losses. They will continue pushing off resorts reopening until they are needed, will perhaps (probably) cut hours in September, and use this to show improvement in the next quarter. Pushing off current projects a quarter or two, trimming excessive details in Epcot projects, and employing a number of CMs appropriate to guest levels is prudent. Bookings are healthy in 2021.

In the end, the BRAND is strong. People want to go. And they will. The company will survive.

Universal has a slightly more perilous situation but will also be fine. They opened earlier and suffered more as COVID spiked. Now, more locals are going to WDW because they’ve “been there, done that” with masks at Universal. WDW is more novel. And if there was ever any doubt, Central Florida vacationers come, first and foremost, to Walt Disney World. There’s more nostalgia. So for those who want to get a vacation away from COVID, most are choosing WDW.

Sometimes, you have to say, “does this pass the smell test?” Someone makes it out like the parks are closing up shop the same week as Disney recommences construction on multiple major projects that are underway. If you are ready to close up shop, do you send workers back to Ratatouille, Guardians, Play, other Epcot projects, Tron, Grand pathway, Toy Story restaurant, etc.? Do you still open your largest moderate resort? Do you work to bring new entertainment to DHS? Do you unveil new product lines? C’mon.

With that said, I do think they need to wake up and start offering discounts to help promote more bookings. No brainer. A $5000 vacation that has been discounted is better for the company than a $6000 vacation that people don’t book.
 

pheneix

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Worth nothing that these two positive items I highlighted in a post last night were indeed the headlines of the day that saved their report.

But please, keep telling me how I got it all wrong. :cool:
 
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