• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

Old Key West 2057

Naplesgolfer

Active Member
Original Poster
I am considering a purchase of more DVC points. ( resale) Ione of the possible add on’s is more Old Key West but with a 2057 end date. Some of my current points are OKW 2042. ( owned since 1996). I am concerned about the uncertainty of what happens from year 2043 -2057. There are 2-3 plausible way’s Disney deals with most points expiring at 2042. If they use the 3/4 or more of the points they will own as hotel rooms for the last 15 years I can’t imagine that’s being any different than what happens now. We might even get more amenities.
Am I missing a downside??
 

nickys

Well-Known Member
Advertisement
I am considering a purchase of more DVC points. ( resale) Ione of the possible add on’s is more Old Key West but with a 2057 end date. Some of my current points are OKW 2042. ( owned since 1996). I am concerned about the uncertainty of what happens from year 2043 -2057. There are 2-3 plausible way’s Disney deals with most points expiring at 2042. If they use the 3/4 or more of the points they will own as hotel rooms for the last 15 years I can’t imagine that’s being any different than what happens now. We might even get more amenities.
Am I missing a downside??
A downside of what? There is a whole separate thread of discussion about what happens in 2042 in general. And the OKW question keeps rearing it’s head. But the truth is, no one knows.

But if you already own there, why are you concerned with the extension. There are 2042 resale contracts out there if that’s what you prefer. But all new points sold there have a 2057 end date, and that is the actual end date of the resort.
 

Naplesgolfer

Active Member
Original Poster
My concern is the unknown of how they maintain or change the resort , policies and amenities when Disney has 90% of the points in their hands in 2043. I am adding at AKL too but was thinking of adding more OKW but would only add the 2057 points at this time.
 

nickys

Well-Known Member
My concern is the unknown of how they maintain or change the resort , policies and amenities when Disney has 90% of the points in their hands in 2043. I am adding at AKL too but was thinking of adding more OKW but would only add the 2057 points at this time.
Do you know for sure they will have 80% of the points then? Just curious. I’ve not seen an actual figure before.

Tagging @helenabear in on this. But they will have to maintain the resort. And as far as I understand it, they can’t simply make 3 buildings DVC and the rest non-DVC, because people own a percentage of a specific unit. So the ownership will be spread out over the whole resort.
 

Naplesgolfer

Active Member
Original Poster
Do you know for sure they will have 80% of the points then? Just curious. I’ve not seen an actual figure before.

Tagging @helenabear in on this. But they will have to maintain the resort. And as far as I understand it, they can’t simply make 3 buildings DVC and the rest non-DVC, because people own a percentage of a specific unit. So the ownership will be spread out over the whole resort.
I just get concerned they could use ROFR. To buy up 2057 points in let’s say 2/3 of the resort over time and only do Direct sales in the other third. They could end up with 2/3 to 3/4 of the buildings in 2043. I don’t know but the unknown bothers me.
 

nickys

Well-Known Member
I just get concerned they could use ROFR. To buy up 2057 points in let’s say 2/3 of the resort over time and only do Direct sales in the other third. They could end up with 2/3 to 3/4 of the buildings in 2043. I don’t know but the unknown bothers me.
If they ROFR they would be on the hook for the dues. So they’re not likely to do that unless they have buyers lined up. Plus they can’t designate some buildings only as DVC.

I get the general concern, but since you own there I don’t see why the “extra” concern. Why would you not sell the OKW points to get rid of the worry?
 

Naplesgolfer

Active Member
Original Poster
If they ROFR they would be on the hook for the dues. So they’re not likely to do that unless they have buyers lined up. Plus they can’t designate some buildings only as DVC.

I get the general concern, but since you own there I don’t see why the “extra” concern. Why would you not sell the OKW points to get rid of the worry?
I am only concerned about 2043-2057. My OKW points end in 2042.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
There are 2-3 plausible way’s Disney deals with most points expiring at 2042. If they use the 3/4 or more of the points they will own as hotel rooms for the last 15 years...
Did you see @FCivish3's post in your "What will happen in 2042?" thread?

It is not clear how much of OKW is owned by people who have extended, and what percentage is going to expire, but there will probably be a not insignificant portion of it that will be looking for new owners after 2042. On the other hand, Disney has been exercising ROFR on Old Key West at the rate of about 80 contracts per year. Clearly, if they keep this up for 10 years, then through their ROFR they will end up converting most of the 'expiring contracts' into 'non-expiring contracts,' since most of them will have been extended by 2042. 80 per year for 10 years is 800 units, which is more than the total number of units at OKW. Still, however many unextended units remain, those units will be added to the sales inventory, BUT, they will be short term sales of 15 years or so. I DO believe that Disney will try to sell them, just in order to avoid paying the Maintenance Fees, but they won't be able to sell those points for full price. And if they think current 'Resales' with discounted prices is adversely affecting their more expensive Direct sales, then I see OKW at 15 years as being an even bigger problem. There are certainly many people, who would jump on an OKW contract giving them 15 years for $70 per point, rather than a more expensive 50 year contract somewhere else at $200 per point (equivalent, adjusted for inflation). So, unless they 'convert' most of the expiring contracts into extended contracts by then, it could be a problem for them. My guess is that they are doing just fine, by picking up OKW with ROFR at the rate they are, and so this probably won't be a problem.
I'm frankly amazed that they are ROFRing at that pace, as it implies that they are selling 80 OKW contracts a year direct. I didn't imagine it to be that high, but I accept @FCivish3's figures.

Anyway, as OKW resale prices decline as 2042 looms, I could see Disney taking even more contracts in ROFR. I imagine that people looking for a "moderate" DVC resort will finally get their wish 30-years late with the short-dated OKW contracts being sold at moderate prices. I suppose we'll get a feel for how well direct pricing holds up as the deadline approaches for the 2042 resorts.

I could also see DVC making a final contract extension offer close to 2042. I imagine they'll get more uptake in 2040 than they did back in 2008.

Bottom line: I'd go through with your transaction and I wouldn't worry too much about what happens in 2042. I'm more concerned about what will happen as 2057 approaches, but we'll get a preview of that with the 2042 resorts. But really, I suspect I'll be more concerned with arthritis or diabetes by then than what's going to happen with my OKW contract. Ha!

Disclosure: I own at OKW. Bought my contract extension in 2008 for $15, then regretted it, then later rescinded my regret. Now I don't know how I'm supposed to feel about it. :)
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
Do you know for sure they will have 80% of the points then? Just curious. I’ve not seen an actual figure before.

Tagging @helenabear in on this. But they will have to maintain the resort. And as far as I understand it, they can’t simply make 3 buildings DVC and the rest non-DVC, because people own a percentage of a specific unit. So the ownership will be spread out over the whole resort.
From what I understand, they cannot split the resort. The POS shows what areas are a part of the resort and as far as I have read, they can only add to a resort, not subtract.

The only unknown for Disney is how much they will be responsible for in terms of MFs. I think this is why ROFR for quticlaim deeded OKW contracts are so high. They want to resell so members are paying the MFs, not Disney.

To be honest in terms of direct pricing OKW is pretty darn good and should sell well. The value there is high IMO
 

nickys

Well-Known Member
From what I understand, they cannot split the resort. The POS shows what areas are a part of the resort and as far as I have read, they can only add to a resort, not subtract.

The only unknown for Disney is how much they will be responsible for in terms of MFs. I think this is why ROFR for quticlaim deeded OKW contracts are so high. They want to resell so members are paying the MFs, not Disney.

To be honest in terms of direct pricing OKW is pretty darn good and should sell well. The value there is high IMO
I think that, finally, I am beginning to understand the situation, thanks to your constant restatement of the facts! This must be the first time you’ve actually endorsed my opinion :hilarious: I commend your patience. :)
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
They could bring back 20K Leagues Under the Sea ...... ;)
The question of sea levels should be in the political thread because if the sea level does raise that much by 2042 the US and the world economy will be ruined. It is not even worth talking about. We should keep the discussion to WDW and all it's good and bad issues. And yes I wish they would bring back the subs.
 

Gainesvillain

Active Member
The question of sea levels should be in the political thread because if the sea level does raise that much by 2042 the US and the world economy will be ruined. It is not even worth talking about. We should keep the discussion to WDW and all it's good and bad issues. And yes I wish they would bring back the subs.
I disagree with you that climate change is a political issue, however it was just a joke . . . Didn't mean to derail the thread 😇
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
I think that, finally, I am beginning to understand the situation, thanks to your constant restatement of the facts! This must be the first time you’ve actually endorsed my opinion :hilarious: I commend your patience. :)
Oh trust me, it took me a long time to figure it out and I was in the middle of it all when it happened LOL! I'm a mom though, of a kid who asks a lot of questions. I also volunteer at schools often and have been room parent for 6 years, ran a festival for 5 that used middle school kids for volunteers... compared to all that you're nothing ;)
(really no patience tried at all - it is complex)

In 2057 Old Key West and Older Key West will be underwater 😉
Oh hush your mouth - that's my home you are talking about ;)

They could bring back 20K Leagues Under the Sea ...... ;)
Arrrgh - see above. Noooooo to 20k leagues! I hated that ride :eek:
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
I disagree with you that climate change is a political issue, however it was just a joke . . . Didn't mean to derail the thread 😇
You are right that it's not political but it still doesn't belong here. I know climate change is a fact. Some may argue on the percentage that is man made but the climate has changed. One interesting fact is the in the 1400s Englas made the best wine. Then came the mini-ice age ending the wine production in northern Europe and thus the beer and other alcohol. Also the pope approved the burning of witches. But that should not be discussed here either. I just put it in for the humor.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
I think this is why ROFR for quticlaim deeded OKW contracts are so high.
What do you mean by quitclaim deeded OKW contracts? Do you mean contracts that haven't been extended to 2057?

Is ROFR lower for contracts that in that uncertain, neither extended nor quitclaimed after 2042 state?
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
What do you mean by quitclaim deeded OKW contracts? Do you mean contracts that haven't been extended to 2057?

Is ROFR lower for contracts that in that uncertain, neither extended nor quitclaimed after 2042 state?
I say it this way for a reason - those who have contracts that end are signed quitclaim deeds. Remember the entire resort was extended to 2057. Only those who signed the quitclaim have theirs ending in 2042.

For those without a quitclaim, but haven't paid, I have no idea. Again you didn't pay to extend, you paid to not sign a quitclaim. There aren't many of us out there in this situation I think. Every once in a while you see a quitclaim form go through the OC comptroller.

I was discussing this elsewhere and someone else was thinking that it won't be a big deal for them because they might make more money renting out the points instead of getting MFs. So who knows.
 
Top Bottom