Not a blonde moment this time :P

[mousermerf]

Is the cone not supposed to be based on the possible locations of the eye at a certain time?

At this point their guesses have been up to 48-96 hours off course. They are not using their data properly and are making wild guesses.

 

[SpongeScott]

Is the cone not supposed to be based on the possible locations of the eye at a certain time?

At this point their guesses have been up to 48-96 hours off course. They are not using their data properly and are making wild guesses.

I didn't know you were a weather genius too.

THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.

 

[wannab@dis]

They're just people guessing at this point.

And it's politics. They wont dare project it heading toward Lousianna, even though it seemingly is not making the turn they insisit that it will.

Their projection is not direct from some model. They take what they want from a bunch of models and make their projections.

At this point several states should be within the possible target zone, because they dont know where it's going, but they are, for political reasons, only projecting it toward FL. It may be the most likely, but it is not the only possible target.

Politics? You're kidding right?

Only thing that I've seen that you may be right about... they don't use an individual model. They use a weighted average of models with educated guesswork based on experience.

Projections were never meant to be 100% accurate days out and the error rate is unavoidable.