Not a blonde moment this time :P

[pinkrose]

Posted by James Spann on June 9, 2006, 6:01 am
in Weather Discussions ( ABC 33/40 Weather Blog)


The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.

Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.

WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.

However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.

For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle)

 

[Woody13]

Tropics Remain Disturbing
Friday, June 09, 2006 2:46 PM EDTMore News

http://spotlight.accuweather.com/dyndoc/spotlight/_QXA1500/news-story.asp/flasher.gif?article=2 This is the area of concern. Right now it's merely a conglomeration of heavy thunderstorms. In the tropics, individual thunderstorm cells are called hot towers, which are often a harbinger of worse things to come. When enough thunderstorms join together to share their resources, a tropical storm often takes shape. The cloud mass over the western Caribbean is likely to shear into two pieces this weekend, and it's not clear yet which section of the storm will become the dominant one. Shown here are two of the most likely scenarios. The tropical system may cross the northern tip of the Yucatan then drift southwestward, becoming a big rain producer in Mexico. The other possibility is the main part of the storm follows track two or something close to it. This scenario would suggest heavy rain for Florida and perhaps along a portion of the Eastern Seaboard. AccuWeather.com will have more on this breaking weather story through the weekend.

 

[SpongeScott]

I kinda prefer Track 1.

 

[Woody13]

I kinda prefer Track 1.

We're currently in a severe drought (normal rainfall year to date: 26.19 inches **current rainfall year to date 13.8 inches) and our area has a burn ban as well. If you don't have an irrigation system, your lawn is brown or dead. Most people around here want it to come visit us. :wave:

 

[SpongeScott]

We're currently in a severe drought (normal rainfall year to date: 26.19 inches **current rainfall year to date 13.8 inches) and our area has a burn ban as well. If you don't have an irrigation system, your lawn is brown or dead. Most people around here want it to come visit us. :wave:

If it would stay Cat 1 or lower, bring it on. I do have a sprinkler system, but I know we can definitely use the rain.

 

[Woody13]

If it would stay Cat 1 or lower, bring it on. I do have a sprinkler system, but I know we can definitely use the rain.

Indeed, great minds think alike. :wave:

 

[pinkrose]

Indeed, great minds think alike. :wave:

We coud us the rain as well, so we're hoping it ends up here.

 

[pinkrose]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

823
WTNT31 KNHC 101246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[SpongeScott]

Here we go! :lol:

 

[pinkrose]

Here we go! :lol:

Yup, looks like you'll be getting is Scott. At least it won't be much more than a lot of rain that you need.

 

[Tim G]

Anyway... It's too early to start my Weather man function

 

[Woody13]

 

[SpongeScott]

 

[disneyfanatic05]

As of 10:00 AM EST The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression One to Tropical Storm Alberto

 

[pinkrose]

Here's what our abc3340 weather team posted today...

LANDFALL: Alberto presents a difficult forecast. A weak storm like the one we currently have is steered predominantly by low levels winds, which would strand the storm in the central Gulf. Major forecast models still expect the system to be steered northeasterly in advance of a trough dropping into the Gulf Coastal region. This still is the official forecast, and carries the storm to the Florida Big Bend area Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. The storm crosses Florida and emerges into the Atlantic, paralleling the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. It then races northeastward as a fairly potent non-tropical low as it moves over cooler water.

IMPACT ON COASTAL SECTIONS: If the official track materializes, Alberto will bring tropical storm force winds to the Florida Coast north of Tampa. Minor storm surges of 2-4 feet will affect the coast south of landfall. Very heavy rains will accompany the storm. To the north of the landfall, a few showers may affect areas as far west as Panama City. Clouds were already rotating over the Florida Panhandle and will continue though tomorrow along with the showers. A decent northerly breeze will kick in also. The threat of rip currents will be elevated.

 

[pinkrose]

 

[mousermerf]

I completely don't beleive the storm projections anymore.

It was supposed to be over my area by right now in the earlier paths and now it's might get here by Tuesday.

 

[SpongeScott]

I completely don't beleive the storm projections anymore.

It was supposed to be over my area by right now in the earlier paths and now it's might get here by Tuesday.

and that, my friend, could be your undoing one day.

They are projections, not facts. A lot of data is used to predict these things and the forward movement changes over the course of time.

You can't control the weather, you can only make an educated, scientific guess as to what you think it might do.

 

[mousermerf]

They're just people guessing at this point.

And it's politics. They wont dare project it heading toward Lousianna, even though it seemingly is not making the turn they insisit that it will.

Their projection is not direct from some model. They take what they want from a bunch of models and make their projections.

At this point several states should be within the possible target zone, because they dont know where it's going, but they are, for political reasons, only projecting it toward FL. It may be the most likely, but it is not the only possible target.

 

[SpongeScott]

They're just people guessing at this point.

And it's politics. They wont dare project it heading toward Lousianna, even though it seemingly is not making the turn they insisit that it will.

Their projection is not direct from some model. They take what they want from a bunch of models and make their projections.

At this point several states should be within the possible target zone, because they dont know where it's going, but they are, for political reasons, only projecting it toward FL. It may be the most likely, but it is not the only possible target.

The NHC never makes their projection from just one model.

Why wouldn't they dare project it to hit Louisiana?

I'll bet your AP against mine that it hits Florida. :animwink: