News NOAA forecasts 'extremely active' hurricane season for the remainder of 2020

stratman50th

Well-Known Member
Aaahhh, spaghetti models!
14481728_1319852578026257_2598662916729165117_o.jpg


Florida Humor...
 

stevebwv

Active Member
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2015


:)
That's one example.
You are aware NOAA is a government agency whose job it is to provide the federal and local government with information for emergency preparedness, and not some media company trying to sell something, right?



You weren't trying to predict the weather.
1. Government agencies are not immune from proving their worth. If the danger they are tasked to study increases what happens to their funding? It won't go down.
2. At what level of accuracy does the prediction become worthless? If their prediction is correct 50% of the time it is essentially worthless. We benefit just as much if we prepare for an average season. Is it +10% at 60% accuracy worth the worry and cost? Is it 70%? That is a valid consideration whether you like it admit it or not.

I know it is much easier just to accept whatever is laid out in front of us form "experts" (in this case meteorologists that are true experts in their field) but we all benefit from critical thinking.
 
NOAA is notorious for its over-predictions. Just as in all news, it is all about the clicks and fear sells like nothing else.

Right. Every year
All it does is take the facts into account and produces a model based off those facts. It's not suggesting landfall or where the storms will hit. It's literally providing insight into what the facts say.

It's crazy how people are so much against any kind of reporting and immediately just label it as someone trying to sell fear.


It is trying to sell fear. How is it that nearly every year, for the last 20 consecutive years, is going to be more active than normal? At some point, the "more than normal" would become the "new normal", and each successive year would no longer be "the worst EVER!!!!"
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
Right. Every year

It is trying to sell fear. How is it that nearly every year, for the last 20 consecutive years, is going to be more active than normal? At some point, the "more than normal" would become the "new normal", and each successive year would no longer be "the worst EVER!!!!"

Umm...

2015


:)
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
You are aware NOAA is a government agency whose job it is to provide the federal and local government with information for emergency preparedness, and not some media company trying to sell something, right?

Have you been consuming the news for the last 4 years? (Or decades if you are observant).

Many agencies are filled with political agendas. Often very one sided. 🌀
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
Right. Every year



It is trying to sell fear. How is it that nearly every year, for the last 20 consecutive years, is going to be more active than normal? At some point, the "more than normal" would become the "new normal", and each successive year would no longer be "the worst EVER!!!!"

Oddly the last 20 years have been at or below historical norms. Named storms criteria has been far less than consistent. But narratives too often sidetrack facts.

Still, a major storm can happen any year. Nothing to take lightly.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Over half of NJ lost power due to the winds. A good third of them will have a 3-7 day wait to be restored.

Lines down *everywhere*. Just about every house has a pile of tree limbs on the curb for pick-up.

And that's just Tropical Storm force winds.
Delaware has extensive damage to trees, buildings with major roof damage, lots of telephone/electrical poles down...they had 2 tornado touchdowns.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
That's one example.

Let's see, I already posted about 2015. So..


2019

2014

How about no fear mongering in the Pacific for this year?


See, this is the problem when people have a *belief* and then espouse them publicly when they could have done some simple googling so as not to look foolish.

So, not only is there data and proof that NOAA doesn't say every year that this year's hurricane season is going to be bad, but....

Where's the proof that they are actually making stuff up in order to fear monger? I mean, what's happening? Who's ordering false seasonal forecasts? The head of the agency? The entire board? Is every meteorologist and climatologist at NOAA in on the conspiracy to pump out false information every year? And if not, don't you think any one of them would blow the whistle? Or wouldn't the European agencies that track this publicly dispute NOAA's proclamations?

And what exactly is the benefit of this supposed fear mongering? Does it get them more Federal money each year? Is there any proof of any benefits that derive from 'fear mongering'? What do the people employed at the agency have to gain by lying about the strength of a hurricane season?

Of all the conspiracies I've seen proposed on these forums, this is one of the silliest.
 

Mike730

Well-Known Member
Let's see, I already posted about 2015. So..


2019

2014

How about no fear mongering in the Pacific for this year?


See, this is the problem when people have a *belief* and then espouse them publicly when they could have done some simple googling so as not to look foolish.

So, not only is there data and proof that NOAA doesn't say every year that this year's hurricane season is going to be bad, but....

Where's the proof that they are actually making stuff up in order to fear monger? I mean, what's happening? Who's ordering false seasonal forecasts? The head of the agency? The entire board? Is every meteorologist and climatologist at NOAA in on the conspiracy to pump out false information every year? And if not, don't you think any one of them would blow the whistle? Or wouldn't the European agencies that track this publicly dispute NOAA's proclamations?

And what exactly is the benefit of this supposed fear mongering? Does it get them more Federal money each year? Is any proof of any benefits that derive from 'fear mongering'? What do the people employed at the agency have to gain by lying about the strength of a hurricane season?

Of all the conspiracies I've seen proposed on these forums, this is one of the silliest.
I typed out nearly the exact same long post but then deleted it in favor of just posting the data. I agree on all counts, especially the quoted below.

See, this is the problem when people have a *belief* and then espouse them publicly when they could have done some simple googling so as not to look foolish.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
And what exactly is the benefit of this supposed fear mongering? Does it get them more Federal money each year? Is there any proof of any benefits that derive from 'fear mongering'? What do the people employed at the agency have to gain by lying about the strength of a hurricane season?

Of all the conspiracies I've seen proposed on these forums, this is one of the silliest.

6a00d8341bf80a53ef0240a4ff1a63200d.jpg
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Let's see, I already posted about 2015. So..


2019

2014

How about no fear mongering in the Pacific for this year?


See, this is the problem when people have a *belief* and then espouse them publicly when they could have done some simple googling so as not to look foolish.

So, not only is there data and proof that NOAA doesn't say every year that this year's hurricane season is going to be bad, but....

Where's the proof that they are actually making stuff up in order to fear monger? I mean, what's happening? Who's ordering false seasonal forecasts? The head of the agency? The entire board? Is every meteorologist and climatologist at NOAA in on the conspiracy to pump out false information every year? And if not, don't you think any one of them would blow the whistle? Or wouldn't the European agencies that track this publicly dispute NOAA's proclamations?

And what exactly is the benefit of this supposed fear mongering? Does it get them more Federal money each year? Is there any proof of any benefits that derive from 'fear mongering'? What do the people employed at the agency have to gain by lying about the strength of a hurricane season?

Of all the conspiracies I've seen proposed on these forums, this is one of the silliest.
It’s unbelievable how everything, WDW.. news..scientists..few other hundred I’m forgetting right now, is either fear mongering or fake. It’s no wonder we can’t have a group of 5 people agreeing 2+2=4. Sooner or later we are going to have to believe the people that know a little bit more about something then we do and go with it.
 

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