My WDW prediction

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I still think the target reopening will be the start of fiscal 2021 so late September/early October.

Another thing to consider is when the second spike will happen. The first spike is a couple weeks away. Having said that, if we all can be strict and keep to all the rules; constant hand washing, do not touch face, self isolation, then maybe there will not be a second spike!🤞
 

Nottamus

Well-Known Member
No predictions....just a hope:

that it will be safe to go, and totally acceptable to go to WDW on our planned 11/1/2020-11/14/2020 trip.

It seems we, as a county, have a lot of work to do to get to that point.
 

JIMINYCR

Well-Known Member
Since our May trip is going to be cancelled soon, I predict DW and I will be playing the pro and con game of rebooking for Sept. I'll be taking the pro side, DW will be taking the con side. I'm an eternal optimist, DW always the pragmatist. I'm a risk taker, DW not. Sometimes I win, sometimes I listen to DW and she wins. We balance each other well. It will all come down to finances and how badly/ long our business is going to be affected by the virus robbing us of business, our state's stay at home shut down edict, and how much we will dip into our savings. Financially, we are in good shape and will come out of this doing much better than most folks.
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
FYI: The second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu was much worse than the first wave. The second wave was also worse than the third. Please note, however, that many labeled the Spring (March 1918) outbreak as the first wave, the Fall (Oct-Dec 1918) as the second wave, and the Spring (Feb 1919) wave as the third wave.
Don't be silly and quote reality and facts on here ;)
 

Shouldigo12

Well-Known Member
I think WDW may have to temporarily open under a seasonal model, and they'll have to come up with some method to control crowds.
 

KCheatle

Well-Known Member
Truth be told, I'm a bit hesitant to even prognosticate about WDW reopening because I have legitimate concerns it may not reopen. I don't mean to sound like a doomsdayer, but things could be really, really bad for them. The US went into an isolation mode in order to flatten the curve. What that means is that we basically took this inevitable disease process and drew out the timing of exposure so that the hospitals would not be overwhelmed with patients all at once. Drawing it out as we did will save countless lives, which is amazing and should be our #1 priority. However, drawing it out will cause businesses to feel the effects for several months as people continue to remain in quarantine and isolation. I do not think the US will be on a down slope for a very long time, and even once we are, I think it will take a while to get to a point on the down slope where businesses will be re-opening. I certainly hope WDW and other businesses can bounce back after this long of a period of time being down, but I fear its much like a person who has stopped breathing: for a few minutes you're fine without air, but the longer you go the more damage is be done, and at a certain point you will not be able to recover.
 
My prediction of Hope is that by October 20th WDW will be open again. My trip was booked in December, with no idea what lay ahead.....

My other prediction is a lot of rides will break down on that first day of reopening.....
 

DisNerd86

Member
Truth be told, I'm a bit hesitant to even prognosticate about WDW reopening because I have legitimate concerns it may not reopen. I don't mean to sound like a doomsdayer, but things could be really, really bad for them. The US went into an isolation mode in order to flatten the curve. What that means is that we basically took this inevitable disease process and drew out the timing of exposure so that the hospitals would not be overwhelmed with patients all at once. Drawing it out as we did will save countless lives, which is amazing and should be our #1 priority. However, drawing it out will cause businesses to feel the effects for several months as people continue to remain in quarantine and isolation. I do not think the US will be on a down slope for a very long time, and even once we are, I think it will take a while to get to a point on the down slope where businesses will be re-opening. I certainly hope WDW and other businesses can bounce back after this long of a period of time being down, but I fear its much like a person who has stopped breathing: for a few minutes you're fine without air, but the longer you go the more damage is be done, and at a certain point you will not be able to recover.
I can see this being a fear, given the large share of Disney's overall revenue driven by Parks and Resorts, particularly the domestic parks. But the notion that the parks would not reopen at all seems pretty far fetched. Disney would not compound the losses they are experiencing right now with further loss on the disposition of the park assets. Life in America may not return to what we all remember as normal, but we will eventually get back to a new normal, which will include people consuming in person entertainment. Tons of small venues/restaurants/businesses will not be able to recover from this, but Disney is big enough to find ways to come back. (I hope, obviously things are still developing, but for my own sanity I will continue to hope.)
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
My prediction of Hope is that by October 20th WDW will be open again. My trip was booked in December, with no idea what lay ahead.....

My other prediction is a lot of rides will break down on that first day of reopening.....

That is likely the point where the second wave hits... We are expecting all of our fall/winter plans to be blocked if we open back up in June/July/August time frame at all
 

AllAboutStitch

New Member
I am thinking along the lines of an opening anywhere from early June to the beginning of July. To say any longer, is just unrealistic. The park’s will be open in some shape or form by then. At first I thought that the people who said a June or July opening were out of their minds. In fact, if you look at the scientific evidence, it all points to that or later. I firmly believe that now. All of The people booking fall trips need to take into account that this is probably going to resurge in the fall. Dr Fauci said that he is ”Almost positive“ that it will resurge. It probably won’t be as bad because we will know how to treat it better. There is still a possibility that the parks may close again in the fall this year until things calm down then. We had a trip scheduled on April 28-May 5. We scheduled that before Coronavirus was even a thing. We then rescheduled to the first weekend in May, but we realized that that too was not going to happen. As of now, we have not rescheduled a trip yet, but we are looking to go shortly after the parks fully open. Am I betting June first, no. I think a more realistic estimate would be around the 14th of June. Phased opening for Florida residents who are AP’s May happen before then. Theme parks along with bars and restaurants will probably be lower on the list to open up the soonest. I think Disney is trying to open up the soonest they can, when they deem it safe. People saying that Disney is not going to open until the risk of contracting COVID-19 is zero, clearly don’t understand that if that were to happen, then Disney would never open up again. Even if there is an effective vaccine for this virus, that doesn’t mean that there is zero risk of contracting it. It is here, and it is staying for the foreseeable future.There is Also NO way on earth that Disney could sanitize and clean all commonly touched surfaces in their parks. Think about it, there is safety restraints, lap bars, ride vehicles, touchscreens, kiosks, restrooms, tables, doors, the list could literally be a mile long. There is also no good way that they could keep people 6 feet apart. Restrooms, entering and exiting the park, and biggest of all, lines and attraction queues. They can’t have virtual queues for every ride and line. The people that are waiting would still have to be somewhere, and that place is the rest of the park, along with everyone else who is there. That brings another issue, park capacity, they would have to reduce park capacity down to 30-40% of what it normally is to be effective. Even if they were open, most people would want to just hold out until it is fully and really open. That is why it is not opening in the next 5-7 weeks. I think that they would have to do a soft opening of some sort like mentioned above. Some things look good on the drawing board, but they May not always work. They aren’t just going to wing it, and that is why a soft opening is necessary to Ensure the safety of the guests and cast members. Again these guidelines could and probably will change in between now and the time June rolls around. Trust me, I want the parks to open, like really really Bad, but I don’t want them to risk anyone’s health, safety, or life. These next few weeks before and after the peak are crucial to having anything start to open up. But in the meantime, the country must open up and Disney will open up. If they do close, and a trip is booked then, waiting until 2021 is probably a better idea. This could also affect the holiday crowd, making that time less crowded. But I do hope that you and your family will be walking down Main Street USA on December 6 2020, as do I with mine👍

Fully agreed, and well said!! That's precisely why my family is waiting until 2021. By then we'll be closer to a vaccine, businesses, and the US as a whole (and the world frankly) will have figured out better sanitation procedures and will basically have come to accept that this is part of life. This virus is out there just like influenza, TB, and others. Eventually we'll have a vaccine for it, and another one will come along later. We just have to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and keep living life. We can't hunker down forever. Disney can't sustain being closed for months just like any other business can't. Entire countries can't. It's just something humanity has to accept as part of life in this world.

What Disney COULD do is allow guests to bring in sanitation wipes, encourage use of hand sanitizer (stations all over the park, double what they currently offer), and help encourage kids to wash their hands more through the characters. Just little things like that can go a LONG way.
 

AllAboutStitch

New Member
We can go by 2021, but it has nothing to do with the virus and everything to do with finances that 2020 cannot happen.

Fully agreed! Same here. We're not planning until spring 2021 anyways. Wasn't in the cards for us this year. Too many other obligations and too much construction going on. (we're an EPCOT family)
 

AllAboutStitch

New Member
I think WDW may have to temporarily open under a seasonal model, and they'll have to come up with some method to control crowds.

That's where I'm thinking they go. They've already furloughed thousands of cast members. They'll likely be re-opening on smaller crews until they can re-hire people back. Even then, you'd want to be seasonal until you "smelled-out" the situation and assessed safety. Just makes common sense. I'm betting once they get a grip on a vaccine that is fully approved, things start to relax a bit. The UPMC is already VERY CLOSE to one. They've been animal testing for the past two weeks with 100% positive results.
 

AllAboutStitch

New Member
I can see this being a fear, given the large share of Disney's overall revenue driven by Parks and Resorts, particularly the domestic parks. But the notion that the parks would not reopen at all seems pretty far fetched. Disney would not compound the losses they are experiencing right now with further loss on the disposition of the park assets. Life in America may not return to what we all remember as normal, but we will eventually get back to a new normal, which will include people consuming in person entertainment. Tons of small venues/restaurants/businesses will not be able to recover from this, but Disney is big enough to find ways to come back. (I hope, obviously things are still developing, but for my own sanity I will continue to hope.)

Agreed! They wouldn't spend all that money, put all that time into Walt's vision, just to dump it, cut and run. It may be, at worst-case, a gradual, phased re-opening one park at a time, with seasonal operations. It could be some time until they get back to full year-round operations like they did before.
 

MurphyJoe

Well-Known Member
I'm predicting the legendary non-expiring tickets to make a short comeback. With non-expiration it wouldn't matter if the parks are open or closed as Disney would still have some ticket sales at greater than current gate prices to help company revenue.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Good idea with non expire tickets. They could keep all the same with the tiered pricing, just make them non expire. Each tier must still adhere to the weeks of the calendar for that tier, but just won’t expire, OR, you can use your ticket for the week in the calendar for your tier AND the weeks of LESS priced tiers maybe.

The non expire will bring in much needed cash to the Disney parks. Kinda like the real reason stocks were supposed to work but do not; invest in a company to help it grow for the long term.

The non expire ticket will work in a similar way; I give you my money now because I know I will get a return on my investment down the line because I believe in the company.
 
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ELG13

Well-Known Member
May of next year come hell or high water!!! This is my second trip I've had to cancel/postpone in a row so it will be 2 full years we haven't made it 😭
 

CLEtoWDW

Well-Known Member
Truth be told, I'm a bit hesitant to even prognosticate about WDW reopening because I have legitimate concerns it may not reopen. I don't mean to sound like a doomsdayer, but things could be really, really bad for them. The US went into an isolation mode in order to flatten the curve. What that means is that we basically took this inevitable disease process and drew out the timing of exposure so that the hospitals would not be overwhelmed with patients all at once. Drawing it out as we did will save countless lives, which is amazing and should be our #1 priority. However, drawing it out will cause businesses to feel the effects for several months as people continue to remain in quarantine and isolation. I do not think the US will be on a down slope for a very long time, and even once we are, I think it will take a while to get to a point on the down slope where businesses will be re-opening. I certainly hope WDW and other businesses can bounce back after this long of a period of time being down, but I fear its much like a person who has stopped breathing: for a few minutes you're fine without air, but the longer you go the more damage is be done, and at a certain point you will not be able to recover.
It’s one thing to be a “doomsdayer” and it’s another thing to spread baseless statements. Your statement of “you don’t think the US will draw down the slope for a very long time.” This is complete and total fallacy. I can tell you based off of pure data the slope will be falling within the next 2-4 weeks and our virus replication numbers (RO) will continue to fall. Additionally, when the replication number falls to be in line with what is defined as “neutralized” social gatherings will be permitted again and life will resume. Presently, the models I trust the most have that occurring the week of May 17th. At that point we will gradually begin rolling openings of the economy and by June 1st we should be 80-90% functional. That’s why I put my target period for reopening at WDW of early to mid June. This gives Disney plenty of time to get everything online again and allow for cast members that come from abroad to report back to work. I do believe Disney will slow play the reopening and we won’t see parks go “full go” until mid July.
 

Walt Disney1955

Well-Known Member
Lots of things to think about here when it comes to not only Disney but theme parks. Disney likely will be fine, they have deep enough pockets although eventually their shareholders are really going to pressure the company. But think about a place like, say, Sea World. I don't know how much dough they have, but since they are already constantly under attack from animal rights activists they may have some more difficulties the longer this thing goes on. Don't be surprised if there are a couple things that aren't there anymore after they return. Don't be surprised even if Disney cuts back on a few things. It will suck I am sure.

But it is the Six Flags parks I wonder about. Not always the most financially stable parks to begin with, I think the places that would normally be open now are going to get hurt quite a bit. The ones in the warmer climates. A park like Darien Lake is okay for now, because they wouldn't be opening anyway until May 8th, but if this cuts into their season, well, that's a bad thing.
 

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