My cancelation prediction...

[KCheatle]

I predict Disney will cancel at least June and July, and possibly August, 2021 cruises this Wednesday. Here's why I am predicting this:

1. Disney canceled February and March 2021 cruises on December 4, 2020 and January 14, 2021, respectively. However, the cancellations for April, 2021, were announced on January 27, 2021, and the cancellations for May, 2021, were announced on February 24, 2021. These were exactly 4 weeks apart, and both on Wednesdays. This Wednesday will be 4 weeks out from the last cancellation.
2. Disney just announced additional itineraries which cover June and July for 2022. People who are mad that their June or July 2021 cruise was canceled now have the itineraries to re-book essentially the same cruise next summer. This will appease guests who cannot cruise except during the summer months. Also, it will keep the guests' money in Disney's account as I assume they expect these people will just bump their cruise instead of asking for a refund. Disney needs the money in their account to keep this operation going.
3. Disney is opening booking on the new summer 2022 itineraries this week. Today it has already opened to Platinum members. By March 25, 2021, it is open to all guests. I expect Disney wants to give a bit of a boost to it's Platinum and Gold members because, by Wednesday, the lines will be inundated with canceled cruise guests who want to re-book on these itineraries.

We'll see how this plays out!

 

[ToTBellHop]

Regardless of how it plays out, anyone booked through 8/31 should certainly move over to next year this week to get the lowest prices. No point in waiting for Wish if you have a FCC since you sacrifice your extra 25%, anyway.

 

[monothingie]

Disney has already said they will not resume cruising until the Fall 2021. My best guess would be 10/1. With soft openings in September.

DCL is going to be the last major operator to resume cruising, because they can afford it. They're going to let others play canary in the coal mine. If everything goes well with RC and Celebrity, DCL will stick to their timeline.

That being said, Royal and Celebrity are committed to resuming cruises out of a non-US home port in June. They've implemented a vaccine requirement to board the ship, in addition to negative's Covid Tests. They are also only booking half the ship with outside balcony's only to start. Also by bypassing US and leaving out of a foreign port, US restrictions do not apply since they are foreign flagged and don't enter the US. They've already said that if successful, the demand is there and they will ramp up capacity and sailings.

This is also a power play for these major cruise lines to push the US into moving forward in adjusting the CDC guidance on cruise ships. The US home ports generate $billions for local economies, if the large cruise lines can successfully move their home port operations off shore and bypass the US entirely it will place tremendous pressure on the government to make changes.

 

[ChuckElias]

I'm waiting for an announcement on the 23rd.

DCL could sail from England as early as May 17!

https://disneycruiselineblog.com/2021/03/pathway-to-the-resumption-of-domestic-cruising-in-england-on-track-for-mid-may-2021/

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[KCheatle]

I'm waiting for an announcement on the 23rd.

DCL could sail from England as early as May 17!

https://disneycruiselineblog.com/2021/03/pathway-to-the-resumption-of-domestic-cruising-in-england-on-track-for-mid-may-2021/

forums.wdwmagic.com

I'm wondering if their phone lines are overwhelmed with people trying to book the new 2022 itineraries and so they pushed back the cancellation because they can't handle that on top ot if all??