DHS Monster Inc Land Coming to Disney's Hollywood Studios

[Disstevefan1]

1. Tropical Americas - complete 2027 - breaks ground in January so depending on when in 2027 it opens could take less than 3 years
2. Monsters Land - projected to open 2028 - construction expected to start in 2025 so likely 3ish years to build
3. CarsLand - projected to open 2029 but nothing official on that from Disney - construction expected to start in 2025
4. Villians Land - projected to open 2030 but nothing official from Disney - construction also starts is 2025

I don’t think Disney is guaranteeing anything will take less than 3 years. The only project with an announced opening timeframe is Tropical Americas at AK opening 2027. They have already started moving things in for construction and ground breaks in January when the carnival area closes. So that project is slated to take less than 3 years even if it opens December 2027. Since it’s only a retheme of an existing ride and one new ride with limited demo needed I think it’s doable.

I think Monsters may actually be even less work than Tropical Americas since it’s a rethemed show instead of a rethemed ride along with a new ride and rethemed restaurant so if they really break ground in 2025 as expected there is no reason to assume Monsters won‘t be done by 2028. So depending on when ground breaks in 2025 and when it opens in 2028 I’d say 3ish years with an outside shot at being under 3 years

Cars and Villians have extensive demo work, river to fill in, all new infrastructure to build. Those lands will almost certainly take more than 3 years but since they are slated to break ground in 2025 and open in 2029/2030 there’s room there for a longer construction schedule.

If anything comes close to a three year build time it would be the Tropical Americas. The important thing to remember we can split hairs on build times, but to the regular guest, Primeval Whirl has been closed since 2019.

In my mind, the time it takes to replace an attraction is the date the previous attraction is closed to the date the new attraction is open. Let’s say they manage to open the tropical Americas by 2028, that is about 9 years in the case of Primeval Whirl.

And shut up, I liked Primeval Whirl, and never skipped it while at AK

 

[JD80]

I actually think it’s pretty smart. Most visitors have limited vacation time. If we imagine the average vacation is 7 days, next year, people will be giving 1 of those days to Epic probably at Disney’s expense. So, while the actual number of visitors will likely increase next year, the average number of days in a Disney park per guest will likely fall. So, it’s a smart time to take some rides down and have new ones ready to launch annually starting in 2027 once Monsters Unchained is no longer flashy and new.

I see a handful different scenarios that are a net positive for Disney.

1. People that want to do their first WDW trip will still go to WDW.
2. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW.
3. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW and maybe take one less park day for EPIC
4. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW but split their vacation with Universal 50/50
5. People that don't go to WDW will go to Universal and spend one day at WDW.
6. People that don't go to WDW will go to Universal and spend multiple days at WDW.

Here's my basic thinking: If you were already going to WDW with young kids or for the first time you are probably more likely not to split your vacation up. Disney will lose some park days to those going to EPIC (Uni will be smart to try to draw more days away from people wanting to only do 1 EPIC day).

Here's the kicker, those parks days lost to EPIC via people on a WDW vacation are going to be gained back by people visiting EPIC and splashing 1+ days at WDW that weren't going to go to WDW. There are going to be more people in Orlando because of the new park that normally wouldn't be there and WDW will get a taste of that.

These are generalities though. Obviously everyone doesn't fit in to any of the 6 above.

 

[JD80]

Not to mention that Epic ticket packages currently require days at the other two parks. So it would probably be 3 days at Uni and Disney gets whatever is left over.

I don't think it stays that way. You should be able to get day tickets the closer or after opening.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It's amazing that you took a data point, namely, all of Pandora took 3 1/2 years, and then came to the conclusion that anything else Disney builds will take significantly longer.

That's not how logic works.

Ha, no logic here. I am a human not a Vulcan.

I guess Pandora was talked about so far in advance I conflated the build time.

I guess I also got jaded from how long it took Disney to complete the EPCOT mistake.

I hope with your pure logic you are correct and all the project are built and opened in record time.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Yes, besides the things that aren't answers to EU, that's right.

"Answers to EU" are things opening in 2024, 2025, and 2026. Otherwise we can just go ahead and declare The Living Seas an answer to EU. So Disney's answers to EU are Tiana and...

And since we're makin' things up, I'm going to go ahead and claim the "general public" hates everything I hate and loves everything I love, too. It makes debating so much easier.

Disney's answers to EU Phase 2 (which is... probably a restaurant?) are more substantive. But outside of the changes to Animal Kingdom they all make me want to go to WDW LESS, and since every poster can now just assume the general public agrees with them, that looks bad for Disney...

I don't think Disney is going to try and "one up" Universal next year - be more having deals and discounts to try and get people to "check out" Disney while they are there for Epic and promote the things they are building that will be open for when those people are ready for their next trip to the area.

Plus some small things and new entertainment that will be enough for the regulars to have something new to plan around

The big things will be 2027-2030 for when the shine of EU is wearing off a bit (just as far as being the new shiny thing, still will be a great park or course)

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I don't think it stays that way. You should be able to get day tickets the closer or after opening.

They said more ticket options will be available before the park opens - the multi park ticket requirement is just to get more $ and spread crowds for those that *have* to be there when it first opens

 

[MisterPenguin]

Not sure if you know, but they changed the parks name a while ago.

There's nostalgia for a classic Disney park that had 2 rides and 4 shows and horribly misnamed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

"Answers to EU" are things opening in 2024, 2025, and 2026. Otherwise we can just go ahead and declare The Living Seas an answer to EU. So Disney's answers to EU are Tiana and...

I'm sure you'll doubt Iger's veracity, but he said TWDC had known about another gate from Uni for the past ten years.

While Pandora and SWL may be more of a response to Potter Lands, was Ratatouille a response to... what? Minions? Was Cosmic Rewind a response to what... Fast and Furious?

Disney had been pumping capex into WDW for all this time, as much as they could given the necessary investment in streaming.

Yeah, there's competition, but what the heck is "a response to EU"? Was WDW supposed to open 11 new rides in 2024?

"A response to EU" is kinda nebulous. I'd like to hear what TWDC could have done taking into account... reality.

 

[ToTBellHop]

There's nostalgia for a classic Disney park that had 2 rides and 4 shows and horribly misnamed.

MGM had Tower of Terror (not at opening, of course, but while still MGM) which was enough for me.

 

[JD80]

I'm sure you'll doubt Iger's veracity, but he said TWDC had known about another gate from Uni for the past ten years.

While Pandora and SWL may be more of a response to Potter Lands, was Ratatouille a response to... what? Minions? Was Cosmic Rewind a response to what... Fast and Furious?

Disney had been pumping capex into WDW for all this time, as much as they could given the necessary investment in streaming.

Yeah, there's competition, but what the heck is "a response to EU"? Was WDW supposed to open 11 new rides in 2024?

"A response to EU" is kinda nebulous. I'd like to hear what TWDC could have done taking into account... reality.

Build 2 new parks obviously.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I'm sure you'll doubt Iger's veracity, but he said TWDC had known about another gate from Uni for the past ten years.

While Pandora and SWL may be more of a response to Potter Lands, was Ratatouille a response to... what? Minions? Was Cosmic Rewind a response to what... Fast and Furious?

Disney had been pumping capex into WDW for all this time, as much as they could given the necessary investment in streaming.

Yeah, there's competition, but what the heck is "a response to EU"? Was WDW supposed to open 11 new rides in 2024?

"A response to EU" is kinda nebulous. I'd like to hear what TWDC could have done taking into account... reality.

You’re defining “reality” very narrowly, as essentially whatever puts the best spin on Disney’s recent actions in Florida. They could have spent more on streaming AND invested in more capacity in the parks. They could have had something major open in the 2024 - 2026 window.

I’m sure Iger has known about EU for a decade or so, although that doesn’t make his tear-down-and-replace strategy or the decade of inactivity that preceded it look any better. Until the pandemic, Universal was investing steadily in adding attractions to their park and, yes, in the last several years of that period WDW also increased investment, albeit more slowly. That actually makes the fact that Disney has nothing to directly counter EU stand out even more starkly.

If you want to argue Ratatouille was Disney’s response to EU, go ahead. I doubt many folks will see that as a serious argument.

 

[BrianLo]

I see a handful different scenarios that are a net positive for Disney.

1. People that want to do their first WDW trip will still go to WDW.
2. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW.
3. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW and maybe take one less park day for EPIC
4. People that go to WDW will still go to WDW but split their vacation with Universal 50/50
5. People that don't go to WDW will go to Universal and spend one day at WDW.
6. People that don't go to WDW will go to Universal and spend multiple days at WDW.

Here's my basic thinking: If you were already going to WDW with young kids or for the first time you are probably more likely not to split your vacation up. Disney will lose some park days to those going to EPIC (Uni will be smart to try to draw more days away from people wanting to only do 1 EPIC day).

Here's the kicker, those parks days lost to EPIC via people on a WDW vacation are going to be gained back by people visiting EPIC and splashing 1+ days at WDW that weren't going to go to WDW. There are going to be more people in Orlando because of the new park that normally wouldn't be there and WDW will get a taste of that.

These are generalities though. Obviously everyone doesn't fit in to any of the 6 above.

Definitely. The two parks that will ‘suffer’ if that’s a meaningful thing are Universals own. Attendance has to shift from somewhere. Overall the Universal resort should start to get beyond its 21/22 peak, but those individuals parks won’t. To realize a full 50% attendance jump often takes a decade or more.

We already know booking metrics suggest WDW attendance is increasing post Epic. It’s sustaining that bump into the latter parts of the decade they are concerned with. While still offering enough new so that WDW isn’t suddenly perceived as skip able.

I much prefer the spread out investment (if it comes to pass, I’ll humour that counter argument) than the single investment bolus that is a new park. The studios has more or less lost more than a decade of proper investment for Epic.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Build 2 new parks obviously.

Open a new theme park in response to a new Universal park? What sort of insane company would do THAT?!?! And they sure wouldn’t do it TWICE!

Man, the ocean is so BLUE!

 

[BrianLo]

You’re defining “reality” very narrowly, as essentially whatever puts the best spin on Disney’s recent actions in Florida. They could have spent more on streaming AND invested in more capacity in the parks. They could have had something major open in the 2024 - 2026 window.

Definitely. Chapek’s gutting was short sighted. They’ll never say that, but they’ve said it. I don’t think they are content that they lack a new land in 25/26 and in a different universe their investment pipeline should have been shifted up 2 years.

They’ll be fine, which is more so where the messaging to the shareholders falls. It’s also why we’ve seen a scramble of pulling projects off shelves.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Just as a frame of reference, in the 18 months before and after IoA opened, back when Uni was a much more distant competitor to Disney, WDW opened Pooh, Buzz, Test Track, Fantasmic, and Rock n Roller Coaster. Oh, and Animal Kingdom.

 

[celluloid]

Last time I checked, Disney owns the theme park market share/attendance numbers in Florida. It isn’t much of a competition. If Disney and Universal were in a heated competition for “king” of the theme park business in Orlando, with attendance having been relatively equivalent, then yes, they would definitely “need” a response. This is not the case. The way they are responding is more so them saying Universal in no way determines our creative output in the parks. As a company, we are sufficiently established enough that we chart our own decisions. Our park improvements have nothing to do with our neighbors down the street.

If you think that is how they respond. I have a New Fantasyland to sell you as an all new creative and totally not a response to Hogsmeade. (Remember when Imagineering videos had Honeydukes Candy Jar from Universal behind him on the shelf?"

 

[celluloid]

Just as a frame of reference, in the 18 months before and after IoA opened, back when Uni was a much more distant competitor to Disney, WDW opened Pooh, Buzz, Test Track, Fantasmic, and Rock n Roller Coaster. Oh, and Animal Kingdom.

And for those that do not know, we can go back even further and a more distant competitor than that and see how Disney responded in a rush once they knew Universal was going to build a park in Orlando.

FL has had an environment friendly to zoos and aquarium operations. People are kidding themselves if they think that Disney was not competing with Zoos, Aquariums, Sea World and Busch Gardens since day one. A business never says "We really have no competition."

You can still be number one in attendance but want more attendance and ancillary money.

Time marches on. EPCOT has not had a major E ticket now for already two and a half years and none are under construction. Guardians is not SW or Potter in scale. Its one ride cannot hold down the fort forever. By the time the stagnation attempts to fix DHS and AK, they will have suffered, and EPCOT will be taking likely the biggest hit from EPIC as all three do to some degree.(not to mention all of the other hits like hotels guest spending and water park shift.

 

[SteveAZee]

I actually think it’s pretty smart. Most visitors have limited vacation time. If we imagine the average vacation is 7 days, next year, people will be giving 1 of those days to Epic probably at Disney’s expense. So, while the actual number of visitors will likely increase next year, the average number of days in a Disney park per guest will likely fall. So, it’s a smart time to take some rides down and have new ones ready to launch annually starting in 2027 once Monsters Unchained is no longer flashy and new.

Perhaps LLPP is, to a degree, a response to EU. If someone's trying to cram both Disney and Universal into 7 days, Disney's making it easier (and more lucrative) to do that.

 

[JD80]

If Disney were to build a fifth gate, how many more millions of people will they get in the first year and the next 10 years after that?

2023 had 50.7M guests. WDW peaked at 60.7M guests in 2019.

Do you think a 5th gate can bring 10M more people a year and grow on that? Is another park that maintains 10M guests a year worth the investment from the POV of TWDC? (I don't think anyone outside TWDC knows)

If I had to make a guess, they are spending building on existing park to bring up capacity and the park experience. You always have to be building to maintain guest satisfaction and they have to make up a lot of ground.

If they were going to be building a new park, it won't be until this decade of expansion is over.

Or the new CEO demands it. lol

 

[celluloid]

If Disney were to build a fifth gate, how many more millions of people will they get in the first year and the next 10 years after that?

2023 had 50.7M guests. WDW peaked at 60.7M guests in 2019.

Do you think a 5th gate can bring 10M more people a year and grow on that? Is another park that maintains 10M guests a year worth the investment from the POV of TWDC? (I don't think anyone outside TWDC knows)

If I had to make a guess, they are spending building on existing park to bring up capacity and the park experience. You always have to be building to maintain guest satisfaction and they have to make up a lot of ground.

If they were going to be building a new park, it won't be until this decade of expansion is over.

Or the new CEO demands it. lol

I don't think people want a new gate. They want Iger and his leadership to have kept the development and operational standards.
Iger's era is ending with a huge game of catch up due to stagnation.