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Monorail Expansion - Real reason it won't happen
- Thread starter captainkidd
- Start date
When WDW was first built in '70-'71. and when Epcot was built in '80-'81, monorail beams and pylons were probably a lot cheaper to build. Perhaps this list will help explain what I see as the dillemma:
1. Huge expense compared to busses.
2. Huge reroute problems when something goes wrong.
3. Monorail tied in to futuristic theme of Magic Kingdom (at least with tommorrowland and the Contemporary) and Epcot. Not so much with Animal Kingdom.
4. Like fun lines, and meandering paths to reach your destination, Disney probably wanted something eventful to take up your time as you travel from the parking lot or deluxe resort. It beats having a parking lot out the front door. "To get to the park, let's slap up a really cool monorail, and let's make it actually go through our futuristic contemporary hotel."
5. Disney probably wanted to minimize traffic, pollution, and the noise of cars and busses, and therefore used boats and monorails to transport guests as much as possible. But since the 70's and 80's, pollution and noise controls on vehicles have tightened up.
6. Originally, the Disneyland monorail was a ride in and of itself that really didn't transport you anywhere all that special. It was a big deal, almost an e-ticket in and of itself. The Florida Project without a monorail was unthinkable. Of course, at WDW, they plussed it by making it a true part of the transportation system.
7. No one who comes for a few days leaves WDW with a shortage of monorail experiences. At MK and Epcot, they get them. A few miles more won't lead to enough new pizazz to justify the expense.
8. The huge expense, whatever it is, of expanding the monorail just isn't cost effective. Some extra dollars would come in, but not enough to justify the huge expense. Disney would be smarter to build a new ship, fund 5 more Pirate movies, or put a down payment on a whole new park. Ignoring ROI is akin to ignoring the laws of physics. A similar question might be, "Why not have a real rocket ride to outer space?" The answer would in large part be, "It's possible, but it would cost way way way way too much."
9. Slapping on a room or ticket "tax" to fund is a slippery slope. Where would it stop, at maintenance, the cost of new attractions, a whole new park? It's a terrible precedent to set. The ticket and room costs are considered the optimal price given the market for what people are willing to spend. Any more than that, and presumably demand would go down.
That's my take, for what it's worth.
1. Huge expense compared to busses.
2. Huge reroute problems when something goes wrong.
3. Monorail tied in to futuristic theme of Magic Kingdom (at least with tommorrowland and the Contemporary) and Epcot. Not so much with Animal Kingdom.
4. Like fun lines, and meandering paths to reach your destination, Disney probably wanted something eventful to take up your time as you travel from the parking lot or deluxe resort. It beats having a parking lot out the front door. "To get to the park, let's slap up a really cool monorail, and let's make it actually go through our futuristic contemporary hotel."
5. Disney probably wanted to minimize traffic, pollution, and the noise of cars and busses, and therefore used boats and monorails to transport guests as much as possible. But since the 70's and 80's, pollution and noise controls on vehicles have tightened up.
6. Originally, the Disneyland monorail was a ride in and of itself that really didn't transport you anywhere all that special. It was a big deal, almost an e-ticket in and of itself. The Florida Project without a monorail was unthinkable. Of course, at WDW, they plussed it by making it a true part of the transportation system.
7. No one who comes for a few days leaves WDW with a shortage of monorail experiences. At MK and Epcot, they get them. A few miles more won't lead to enough new pizazz to justify the expense.
8. The huge expense, whatever it is, of expanding the monorail just isn't cost effective. Some extra dollars would come in, but not enough to justify the huge expense. Disney would be smarter to build a new ship, fund 5 more Pirate movies, or put a down payment on a whole new park. Ignoring ROI is akin to ignoring the laws of physics. A similar question might be, "Why not have a real rocket ride to outer space?" The answer would in large part be, "It's possible, but it would cost way way way way too much."
9. Slapping on a room or ticket "tax" to fund is a slippery slope. Where would it stop, at maintenance, the cost of new attractions, a whole new park? It's a terrible precedent to set. The ticket and room costs are considered the optimal price given the market for what people are willing to spend. Any more than that, and presumably demand would go down.
That's my take, for what it's worth.
Definitely the right idea - because of how close the outer world was to Disneyland, they wanted to keep things a bit further away from the MK's gate - as well as build anticipation to the entrance to the "show".
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I have been on the Vegas monorail and it makes sense that it would cost a lot more than the Disney expansion would. It connects to the airport which is a logistical nightmare and each station has to have ticket machines and booths for attendants. That being said the $1M figure seems way too low. Probably somewhere in the middle for Disney.
How it could work for ROI:
A small expansion connecting the Epcot station to DTD with stops at Saratoga Springs and OKW. If you draw a straight line from the epcot station to DTD it is less than 2 miles. A loop could probably be around 5 miles. You would need 3 new stations and an expansion of the Epcot station. If you go a little further you could continue the loop the other way and make stops at BW, BC, Swan and Dolphin and Studios. That loop would probably be closer to 10 miles.
Having a monorail station would increase the value of the delux resorts impacted but more importantly the DVC units. OKW, BC and BWV are all up in 2042. You could finance part of the monorail expansion by selling extensions for the DVC at those resorts. It would also make Saratoga more desirable and easier to resell. I have no clue how much money they could raise from selling extensions and I assume that the resorts will need some TLC with that money, but part of the money could go towards it. Even at $25M per mile you are looking at $250M min to build it.
wayneway
Member
Here's something I posted on my website...not that it will ever matter but it seems a logical concern for WDW.
I just can't figure this out, Disney has spent millions of dollars to make sure that guest stay on WDW property. Hotels, Magical Express, Restaurants, Length of Stay Discounts, Dining Plan Discounts, Four Theme Parks, Two Water Parks, Downtown Disney, etc. After all that, after all the money that has been spent what could the holdup be on the Monorail expansion...oh yeah "money". So let me give you my scenerio for visiting WDW and I bet many other paying guest share the same ideals. I'm planning my trip and I have to decide if I should rent a car...hmmm? I remember from my last trip how the buses were really a pain, slow arrivals, over crowded when the park was closing, and perhaps the biggest bummer about a bus is that it's no different than the outside world not to mention the added damage to the environment. Yeah, I should rent a car so I can just drive to Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom, when it comes to EPCOT Center or the Magic Kingdom I'll just drive to one or the other and take the Monorail. Since I'll have my own car I can just drive off property to eat many of my meals, I have to make the rental car worthwhile after all and food is so much cheaper off property. I know I can find a cheaper hotel now that I can just drive my rental car back and forth. And I can stay longer at my cheaper hotel and go to Unversal Studios, SeaWorld, LegoLand, Busch Gardens, International Drive (shopping), etc. Now take me as one guest and multiply my money that I spent somewhere else by a few million and maybe just maybe a Monorail that covers most of WDW isn't so expensive in the long run...after all I'm pretty sure WDW was a long term investment to Walt.
I just can't figure this out, Disney has spent millions of dollars to make sure that guest stay on WDW property. Hotels, Magical Express, Restaurants, Length of Stay Discounts, Dining Plan Discounts, Four Theme Parks, Two Water Parks, Downtown Disney, etc. After all that, after all the money that has been spent what could the holdup be on the Monorail expansion...oh yeah "money". So let me give you my scenerio for visiting WDW and I bet many other paying guest share the same ideals. I'm planning my trip and I have to decide if I should rent a car...hmmm? I remember from my last trip how the buses were really a pain, slow arrivals, over crowded when the park was closing, and perhaps the biggest bummer about a bus is that it's no different than the outside world not to mention the added damage to the environment. Yeah, I should rent a car so I can just drive to Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom, when it comes to EPCOT Center or the Magic Kingdom I'll just drive to one or the other and take the Monorail. Since I'll have my own car I can just drive off property to eat many of my meals, I have to make the rental car worthwhile after all and food is so much cheaper off property. I know I can find a cheaper hotel now that I can just drive my rental car back and forth. And I can stay longer at my cheaper hotel and go to Unversal Studios, SeaWorld, LegoLand, Busch Gardens, International Drive (shopping), etc. Now take me as one guest and multiply my money that I spent somewhere else by a few million and maybe just maybe a Monorail that covers most of WDW isn't so expensive in the long run...after all I'm pretty sure WDW was a long term investment to Walt.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
I get where you are coming from and I think you have some points but I honestly haven't seen most people feeling that way. The buses, while not the most wonderful thing in the world seem to function adequately enough that I haven't heard a lot of complaints about them so the point where most people are seriously considering renting a car. The buses are convenient and if you are really desperate to get off property for a bit, you can always get a cab (granted they can be expensive but generally would be less cheaper than renting a car unless you were seriously going off property a ton.)
And at least in my experience, the monorail does have some of the same problems as the buses...they can get delayed, they can be overcrowded, ect. I don't think Disney would get a great return money wise by investing in more monorail. I'd rather see them spend $250 million on a new land/park than a monorail (that would entice many more people to come than advertising that they added 2 miles of monorail). I know some people love it but I haven't seen most people rave about how awesome the monorail is. It's just..."there" for a lot of guests.
my 2 cents
I'm a planner by profession and I have a passing involvement in the new Washington DC metro line being built now (Dulles Rail/Silver Line). For reference, it's 23 miles long- almost all of it above ground- and has 11 stations- total project cost is going to be 6 to 7 Billion dollars. That's Billion with a B.
Now, what Disney would do probably wouldn't be as expensive as a major, full up, heavy rail mass transit line, but it wouldn't be cheep either. $100,000,000 a mile might be a little high, but not by much by the time you add in all the costs. For the DC project, it's interesting that the cost of the physical rail line isn't that bad. It's the cost of the substations to power it, the road and utility relocation's, the rail cars themselves (4 million per car times 128 cars), the stations, the new maintenance facility and yard, etc. It all adds up fast.
That said, I don't think Disney is going to have a choice. If they add any more major parks and if they keep adding new hotels, they are going to have to do something. Even just expanding the size of the existing parks (Fantasy Land Expansion at MK, Avatar at AK) creates problems because it allows them to increase the maximum guest capacity of the park which in turn means they have to deal with larger crowds coming and going. It may sound dumb, but just having enough bus bays at the entrances is getting problematic. If they expand them much more, they are going to need shuttle buses to get you to the shuttle buses
.
So here's what I think. I think they probably have some smart engineers working on the details of some kind of transit expansion right now- monorail or light rail. I think they will work the details out over time and build it in conjunction with whatever their next major project is (5th park?). I think it will be much more of a transit system- meaning higher capacity- then the current monorail system.
In my opinion, they could build a 5 to 6 mile east/west line that would stop at all of the other major parks- and probably several hotels- and connect at Epcot for transfer to the existing mono rail system.
It would start at Downtown Disney in the east (stops at both ends?), go west to Typhoon Lagoon, continue west to connect at an expanded Epcot mono rail station which would now be a major transfer station, go west around the outside of Epcot and around or through all the hotels with a stop or two (beach club, yacht Club, Boardwalk, Swan, Dolphin), make it's way down to a stop at the DHS entrance, then east and south around the outside of DHS and over World Drive and west to Blizzard Beach. Then west to Animal Kingdom. They could easily extend it another half mile west to pick up Animal Kingdom Lodge if they want, but that's a question of cost. This general alignment would also allow them to stop at several of the other hotels if they wanted. A big question would be do you have some express (only the major parks/water parks) and some local trains or all local trains or do you have a 3rd/4th track for local trains. But that's just a detail to be worked out. The other big benefit of this type of mainline is that it passes large amounts of open land that could hold future parks, facilities, hotels, or even remote parking with no further cost other than a new station (and maybe additional trains). The three existing monorail lines could be left alone or renovated or replaced over time. Really, the existing local and express lines around the Seven Seas Lagoon could remain as is as more of an historic attraction and the long line between Epcot and the TTC could be renovated for higher speed and capacity and maybe even rerouted to drop you at the entrance to MK.
Anyway, that's my educated guess. I'll check back in 10 or 15 years and see if they built it.
I'm a planner by profession and I have a passing involvement in the new Washington DC metro line being built now (Dulles Rail/Silver Line). For reference, it's 23 miles long- almost all of it above ground- and has 11 stations- total project cost is going to be 6 to 7 Billion dollars. That's Billion with a B.
Now, what Disney would do probably wouldn't be as expensive as a major, full up, heavy rail mass transit line, but it wouldn't be cheep either. $100,000,000 a mile might be a little high, but not by much by the time you add in all the costs. For the DC project, it's interesting that the cost of the physical rail line isn't that bad. It's the cost of the substations to power it, the road and utility relocation's, the rail cars themselves (4 million per car times 128 cars), the stations, the new maintenance facility and yard, etc. It all adds up fast.
That said, I don't think Disney is going to have a choice. If they add any more major parks and if they keep adding new hotels, they are going to have to do something. Even just expanding the size of the existing parks (Fantasy Land Expansion at MK, Avatar at AK) creates problems because it allows them to increase the maximum guest capacity of the park which in turn means they have to deal with larger crowds coming and going. It may sound dumb, but just having enough bus bays at the entrances is getting problematic. If they expand them much more, they are going to need shuttle buses to get you to the shuttle buses
.So here's what I think. I think they probably have some smart engineers working on the details of some kind of transit expansion right now- monorail or light rail. I think they will work the details out over time and build it in conjunction with whatever their next major project is (5th park?). I think it will be much more of a transit system- meaning higher capacity- then the current monorail system.
In my opinion, they could build a 5 to 6 mile east/west line that would stop at all of the other major parks- and probably several hotels- and connect at Epcot for transfer to the existing mono rail system.
It would start at Downtown Disney in the east (stops at both ends?), go west to Typhoon Lagoon, continue west to connect at an expanded Epcot mono rail station which would now be a major transfer station, go west around the outside of Epcot and around or through all the hotels with a stop or two (beach club, yacht Club, Boardwalk, Swan, Dolphin), make it's way down to a stop at the DHS entrance, then east and south around the outside of DHS and over World Drive and west to Blizzard Beach. Then west to Animal Kingdom. They could easily extend it another half mile west to pick up Animal Kingdom Lodge if they want, but that's a question of cost. This general alignment would also allow them to stop at several of the other hotels if they wanted. A big question would be do you have some express (only the major parks/water parks) and some local trains or all local trains or do you have a 3rd/4th track for local trains. But that's just a detail to be worked out. The other big benefit of this type of mainline is that it passes large amounts of open land that could hold future parks, facilities, hotels, or even remote parking with no further cost other than a new station (and maybe additional trains). The three existing monorail lines could be left alone or renovated or replaced over time. Really, the existing local and express lines around the Seven Seas Lagoon could remain as is as more of an historic attraction and the long line between Epcot and the TTC could be renovated for higher speed and capacity and maybe even rerouted to drop you at the entrance to MK.
Anyway, that's my educated guess. I'll check back in 10 or 15 years and see if they built it.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
Your take is really interesting lightguy. I could buy them considering putting in a new transit system like you described before they would ever put in a new monorail system (it just doesn't seem like the most cost effective option at all). What would you estimate the cost of the transit system you just described to be? I would much rather them get started on a 5th park before a transit system...I feel like I'm waiting for their truly "next big thing"...though I think they're going to need a kick in the pants to do it. See my comments in article about Universal for that.
I do think there will eventually be a 5th park- but I don't think it will happen for a while. When It does happen, I think it will be more of an thrill ride/adventure park and I wouldn't be surprised if it was along the lines of Tokyo Disney Sea.
As for the monorail/transit, I actually do think a new line might be a monorail (or light rail that runs on an elevated beam kind of like a monorail). Just not a monorail like the existing ones. There are several larger, higher capacity, faster commercial monorail systems out there. A bunch of them are being built around the world right now, just not in North America. I see two advantages to an elevated system like a monorail. One, there's a bunch or roads and parking lots that any system would need to cross. So any ground level system would need to use bridges for these areas- which are more expensive and the multiple elevation changes from ground level to elevated and back could be a problem. Second, the Disney World area is filled with lakes, ponds, canals, and swamps. It seems to me there would be a cost/construction advantage to building a system that just needs supports every 100' and doesn't have much other ground impact. I'm not saying it would be easy, but even with the soft/wet ground, I think that's cheaper and easier than full ground level rail construction. Also, I think it would be easier from an environmental permitting point of view and you wouldn't have to worry about flooding or washout of the track.
Cost- who knows. It depends on so many things. I'd guess $250-$500 million. Maybe less- as a private company, Disney can do things cheaper then the public entities that usually build transit systems. Also, there are alot of things disney won't need that typically drive up the costs (parking garages, large/complex stations, fare controls, squeezing stations into existing urban sites). A big factor would be how many trains they get (and how many the system is designed to run, since that relates to how many substations/how much power you need) and how many stations they have. At the same time, it saves them money due to roads they don't need to build/expand and buses they don't need to replace ($700,000 each) or staff.
As for the monorail/transit, I actually do think a new line might be a monorail (or light rail that runs on an elevated beam kind of like a monorail). Just not a monorail like the existing ones. There are several larger, higher capacity, faster commercial monorail systems out there. A bunch of them are being built around the world right now, just not in North America. I see two advantages to an elevated system like a monorail. One, there's a bunch or roads and parking lots that any system would need to cross. So any ground level system would need to use bridges for these areas- which are more expensive and the multiple elevation changes from ground level to elevated and back could be a problem. Second, the Disney World area is filled with lakes, ponds, canals, and swamps. It seems to me there would be a cost/construction advantage to building a system that just needs supports every 100' and doesn't have much other ground impact. I'm not saying it would be easy, but even with the soft/wet ground, I think that's cheaper and easier than full ground level rail construction. Also, I think it would be easier from an environmental permitting point of view and you wouldn't have to worry about flooding or washout of the track.
Cost- who knows. It depends on so many things. I'd guess $250-$500 million. Maybe less- as a private company, Disney can do things cheaper then the public entities that usually build transit systems. Also, there are alot of things disney won't need that typically drive up the costs (parking garages, large/complex stations, fare controls, squeezing stations into existing urban sites). A big factor would be how many trains they get (and how many the system is designed to run, since that relates to how many substations/how much power you need) and how many stations they have. At the same time, it saves them money due to roads they don't need to build/expand and buses they don't need to replace ($700,000 each) or staff.
I think Disney should look to its past for a future transportation solution. Walt's fondness of the railroad is well-known. He even built his own RR at his Carolwood home, which has been referenced by Imagineers in the new Storybook Circus railroad station. Why not build a rail system featuring trains with a classic look on the outside, enclosed cars with a mass-transit-style seating arrangement for high rider capacity, and clean, efficient, modern technology powering the engine.
Don't think WDW Railroad at MK...that's run with steam engines and has small open-air cars. Think Disney Cruise Line meets Amtrak.
Don't think WDW Railroad at MK...that's run with steam engines and has small open-air cars. Think Disney Cruise Line meets Amtrak.
Scuttle
Well-Known Member
Me to! That's absurdly high. I think the main reason they won't do it is because it's one emergency away from a disaster. If a "real" fire breaks out in one of the cabs TDO will be facing the biggest lawsuit they have ever faced. The emergency exit procedure for the monorail is insane. I'm sure some of you have seen it. I honestly think this plays a huge role. Would they even legally be able to build more monorail beams like the current ones? I would think they would have to build beams with an emergency access beam along side with stairs every few hundred feet similar to the monorail at OIA. If they were required to do that then I could see the price soaring through to the multi millions per mile. Who knows what the real reason is. That's just my crazy theory.
puntagordabob
Well-Known Member
here is something I have thought of on occassion....
Lets bulldoze the parking lots at the four major parks for Guests....build a central parking location with a lot of parking garages (lol).... now build a monorail or light rail system...
Cons: cost
Pros: Major (seriously major!) expansion room at each of the parks....
far less need for road repairs on the Guest roads....
parking for Day Guests would be concentrated in one area...
Parking area could be located anywhere
Would be pretty cool...and could have a light rail connection to Orlando's MCO I suppose...
I know I know...Blue Sky to the point of being in a differenct Universe.... BUT on a smaller scale adding extensive parking Garages to the TTC could elimnate the EPCOT ones and open up a lot of space in the TTC area for other uses....
Similar garages could be built at DHS and DAK to add a large expansion capacity there too...
Florida_is_hot
Well-Known Member
^^^^ :brick:
Thought this out.
Cost .... Billions, no ROI
Room to expand, the parks have space to expand, no ROI again.
They did take out the parking lot in Disneyland to build DCA, but Disnyland was boxed in with no room to expand, Disney World does not have this issue.
Thought this out.
Cost .... Billions, no ROI
Room to expand, the parks have space to expand, no ROI again.
They did take out the parking lot in Disneyland to build DCA, but Disnyland was boxed in with no room to expand, Disney World does not have this issue.
googilycub
Active Member
The Las Vegas monorail does not go to the airport. The closest it gets it the MGM resort, which is still over a mile from the airport.
MonorailLover
Well-Known Member
guys, it totally makes seance for them to invest the cash, last year, their 308(?)'busses transported less people than the 12(- the 2 always in for maintenance and refurb) monorails. And, they won't have to pay for gas, and they have their OWN power grid with their OWN power production, making it a no brainer. It'll be about 25M a mile by the way, anything >30M is a ridiculous estimate, and disney will be able to get about 50k a bus, if the whole program was scrapped=almost a mile LOL. I can't see them not finding the room, they have effing 29800 acres for,crying out loud!
All I thinks is its possible, and a good investment
All I thinks is its possible, and a good investment
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
And that ROI of saving gas is a fraction of what they would spend building the monorails. Sorry, not going to happen. But thanks for reviving a 8 month dead thread.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
There's a good bit of outdated information in this post.
unkadug
Follower of "Saget"The Cult
Horizons78
Grade "A" Funny...
CP_alum08
Well-Known Member
Ha, this is my reasoning to everyone that tells me they are thinking of buying a new "fuel-efficient" car.