'Lightyear' Coming Summer 2022

[doctornick]

Which begs the question.... does Disney want Disney+ subscribers or box office hits more?

The answer should be “both”. An ideal world has them making a bunch from theatrical release and then supplementing it by bolstering content on D+ long term. Disney in the past decade or more has been a master at drawing huge revenue at different time points from multiple avenues with a single film.

 

[ᗩLᘿᑕ ✨ ᗩζᗩᗰ]

The answer should be “both”. An ideal world has them making a bunch from theatrical release and then supplementing it by bolstering content on D+ long term. Disney in the past decade or more has been a master at drawing huge revenue at different time points from multiple avenues with a single film.

But do they care? It's a interesting question. We might have our answer soon enough depending on how quickly Lightyear launches on the streaming platform.

 

[Ghost93]

Which begs the question.... does Disney want Disney+ subscribers or box office hits more?

Why not both? I don't get the release "straight to Disney Plus strategy" when Disney has the option to make money both in theaters AND on Disney Plus! Let people pay for the movie at the cinemas and they will still get it "for free" 45-60 days later when it comes on Disney Plus.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Any money lost from box office intake (After first 3 weeks) is likely made up in the first month of Disney+ viewership, subs, adverts and merch sales.

Well Disney+ Is still losing money and has no ads (or do they Internationally?) so that leaves Merch sales.

 

[Ghost93]

I will be honest and say that I do suspect that all the recent culture war controversy around Disney hasn't helped this film. I haven't seen the film yet, but from all accounts the kiss itself is no big deal. However, there has been so much coverage lately portraying Disney as intentionally inserting pro-LGBTQ+ content in their films that I think all the publicity around the kiss probably has some parents who aren't even necessarily all that conservative on the issue a little puzzled about what is going on at Disney. The extent to which that has affected the box office vs. other factors including Disney+, we will likely never know.

To be clear, I think this is unfair and would also point out that this is no more sexual or 'adult' than having heterosexual couples kissing. I do understand, though, why parents may get a little wary when the media coverage makes it sound like Disney is going out of its way to put gay content in their entertainment for children.

The kiss wasn't sexual at all. However, I do agree that the recent culture war with DeSantis probably hurt the film. I think this film, even with the lesbian kiss intact, would have made more money had it been released in the summer of 2021 or December of 2021.

I don't think the culture war against Disney is hurting the Marvel Studios or 20th Century Fox brands, however. Doctor Strange 2 made almost a billion despite America Chavez being a lesbian and having lesbian moms. Of course, while millions of children saw Multiverse of Madness, that film wasn't marketed as a "kids movie."

 

[doctornick]

Why not both? I don't get the release "straight to Disney Plus strategy" when Disney has the option to make money both in theaters AND on Disney Plus! Let people pay for the movie at the cinemas and they will still get it "for free" 45-60 days later when it comes on Disney Plus.

I think the point is that 45-60 days later on Disney+ prevents both from being big revenue streams - that's way too soon to get people to go to theaters to see it first before it is "free" for their existing D+ subscriptions.

If they are interested in bolstering box office revenue - and they should be, but Chapek's Disney seems to be morons - then they should hold off on any D+ release for theatrical films for at least 3 months, if not 4-6 months. Personally, I'd come out and announce right now that Lightyear won't hit streaming until Nov/Dec so if you want to see it soon, go buy a ticket...

The shorter windows and streaming only releases made sense at the height of the pandemic when theaters were not a thing and D+ content was scant due to delayed productions. But now, in 2022, Disney+ actually has a decent number of originals coming out - heck, Kenobi and Ms. Marvel are overlapping - and doesn't need the quick release from theatrical films. They need to keep the theater window longer and more exclusive.

 

[Ghost93]

If they are interested in bolstering box office revenue - and they should be, but Chapek's Disney seems to be morons - then they should hold off on ant D+ release for theatrical films for at least 3 months, if not 4-6 months. Personally, I'd come out and announce right now that Lightyear won't hit streaming until Nov/Dec so if you want to see it soon, go buy a ticket...

The shorter windows and streaming only releases made sense at the height of the pandemic when theaters were not a thing and D+ content was scant due to delayed productions. But now, in 2022, Disney+ actually has a decent number of originals coming out - heck, Kenobi and Ms. Marvel are overlapping - and doesn't need the quick release from theatrical films. They need to keep the theater window longer and more exclusive.

Oh I totally agree. As someone who is 100% team movie theater and the theatrical experience (I'm pretty much the embodiment of Nicole Kidman in that AMC commercial) I wish we would go back to the 180-day theatrical window.

 

[doctornick]

The kiss wasn't sexual at all. However, I do agree that the recent culture war with DeSantis probably hurt the film. I think this film, even with the lesbian kiss intact, would have made more money had it been released in the summer of 2021 or December of 2021.

I don't think the culture war against Disney is hurting the Marvel Studios or 20th Century Fox brands, however. Doctor Strange 2 made almost a billion despite America Chavez being a lesbian and having lesbian moms. Of course, while millions of children saw Multiverse of Madness, that film wasn't marketed as a "kids movie."

I am very skeptical that the lesbian kiss or any culture wars is doing much of anything in terms of the box office (at least domestically). The box office is pretty much in line with all other family animated films, which have consistently been underwhelming during the pandemic.

We'll see how Rise of Gru does in a few weeks.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Why not both? I don't get the release "straight to Disney Plus strategy" when Disney has the option to make money both in theaters AND on Disney Plus! Let people pay for the movie at the cinemas and they will still get it "for free" 45-60 days later when it comes on Disney Plus.

I kind of understand why they did this at the beginning as a selling point then becomes why pay X amount to take the family to the latest Disney movie when you can pay a monthly subscription and get the latest movies plus our entire back catalogue. The problem once they want to start putting them back in theatres, though, is that they've trained everybody to think that's what they're paying a Disney+ subscription for so they'll just wait.

 

[ElvisMickey]

I don’t agree or disagree but there’s a certain clientele who’ve been funding Disney’s endeavors for the past almost 100 years and it’s not the people who’ve they’ve been catering to. I know people don’t like to hear “What would Walt do?” but it’s apparent that what Walt did made this company so successful, not the choices and decisions made by current management. Most of the Twitter crybabies that they cater to can’t even afford to go to the parks. Harsh statement? Maybe. But it’s completely obvious that the decisions they’ve been making haven’t been good for business. We’re not talking a $4 drop in stock price here…

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Oh I totally agree. As someone who is 100% team movie theater and the theatrical experience (I'm pretty much the embodiment of Nicole Kidman in that AMC commercial) I wish we would go back to the 180-day theatrical window.

It feels like movie theaters are fighting an uphill battle against shorter exclusivity times and larger TVs becoming cheaper by the day.

My theater removed half their seats and put in cushy lazy boy style seating a couple years ago, it’s amazing and comfortable but I still haven’t been back to see a movie since they reopened about a year ago, as nice as the theater is I still prefer watching at home, with a 65” downstairs and a 100” (projector) in the loft the difference between seeing a movie on the “big screen” at the cinema vs watching it at home just isn’t that substantial anymore.

If they went back to a 6 month release window they’d get my butt back in the movie seat though.

 

[doctornick]

I kind of understand why they did this at the beginning as a selling point then becomes why pay X amount to take the family to the latest Disney movie when you can pay a monthly subscription and get the latest movies plus our entire back catalogue. The problem once they want to start putting them back in theatres, though, is that they've trained everybody to think that's what they're paying a Disney+ subscription for so they'll just wait.

This is definitely a huge part of it. But to be fair, it's not just a Disney thing. I think the pandemic has "trained" families that there is plenty of family friendly content on streaming and that there's little point in dragging Susie and Johnny to the theaters and paying for a bunch of tickets and popcorn and soda when you can comfortably watch at home with bathroom breaks whenever you want.

Of course, it affects Disney more because it's a big part of their model and because Disney films in general have been among the highest box office revenue and profit among studios. In other words, the box office lethargy towards animated films adversely impacts Disney more than others. But it is pretty much across the board with the genre.

Despite my recent posts, I'm not sure Disney announcing (say) a 6 months window between theater and D+ would impact things that much at this point though it would probably be at least marginally better than the current process.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

The kiss wasn't sexual at all. However, I do agree that the recent culture war with DeSantis probably hurt the film. I think this film, even with the lesbian kiss intact, would have made more money had it been released in the summer of 2021 or December of 2021.

I don't think the culture war against Disney is hurting the Marvel Studios or 20th Century Fox brands, however. Doctor Strange 2 made almost a billion despite America Chavez being a lesbian and having lesbian moms. Of course, while millions of children saw Multiverse of Madness, that film wasn't marketed as a "kids movie."

Yes, I think people do (understandably) get more sensitive around the content of things that are meant to be aimed at children, even if those same children are in reality watching other things with the same content.

Again, I don't think we'll never really know if this had any impact on the box office. I will say, though, that almost every headline I have seen about the film has been about the 'lesbian kiss' to the point that you'd swear this was Pixar's first lesbian film. It's a little like how a lot of people ended up assuming Turning Red was about periods because the very fact they were acknowledged seemed to dominate the discussion about the film.

 

[doctornick]

Yes, I think people do (understandably) get more sensitive around the content of things that are meant to be aimed at children, even if those same children are in reality watching other things with the same content.

Again, I don't think we'll never really know if this had any impact on the box office. I will say, though, that almost every headline I have seen about the film has been about the 'lesbian kiss' to the point that you'd swear this was Pixar's first lesbian film. It's a little like how a lot of people ended up assuming Turning Red was about periods because the very fact they were acknowledged seemed to dominate the discussion about the film.

It's tough to say for sure, but given how depressed the box office is for this type of films (The Bad Guys opened to $23.9M, Encanto to $27.2M, Sing 2 to $22.3M, Tom & Jerry to $14.1M, etc) I find it difficult to suggest that Lightyear's $51M is somehow unreasonably low and a result of people protesting it due to that "issue".

Of note, most of the articles I am seeing calling this a disappointment seem to be basing it on (1) missing projections and (2) not winning the crown this weekend with Jurassic World having higher box office. Both are which are fair comments but don't really say all that much about Lightyear in absolute terms. I've even seen articles stating Lightyear is a bomb because it fails to meet the box office of pre-pandemic Pixar films which seems... odd, to say the least. Does anyone thing that comparing films today to box office from 2019 or earlier makes any logical sense?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Let’s be clear, the kiss was initially out of the movie because money. I admire TWDC for putting the kiss back it knowing it will hurt the bottom line; the movie being banned in something like 12 countries however, if they remove it and release it without the kiss for the 12 or so countries, then I will see it’s the same old Disney that will do anything for money.

Why are folks getting all worked up about a kiss anyway? This is nothing new.

Remember folks, love is …… Universal sorry I had to do it.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It's tough to say for sure, but given how depressed the box office is for this type of films (The Bad Guys opened to $23.9M, Encanto to $27.2M, Sing 2 to $22.3M, Tom & Jerry to $14.1M, etc) it's really tough to suggest that Lightyear's $51M is somehow unreasonably low and a result of people protesting it due to that "issue".

Of note, most of the articles I am seeing calling this a disappointment seem to be basing it on (1) missing projections and (2) not winning the crown this weekend with Jurassic World having higher box office. Both are which are fair comments but don't really say all that much about Lightyear in absolute terms. I've even seen articles stating Lightyear is a bomb because it fails to meet the box office of pre-pandemic Pixar films which seems... odd, to say the least. Does anyone thing that comparing films today to box office from 2019 or earlier makes any logical sense?

Both Onward and The Good Dinosaur had $39 million opening day weekends, so this isn't even the worst ever for a Pixar movie, but you'd think it was based on the negative press/tweets.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Both Onward and The Good Dinosaur had $39 million opening day weekends, so this isn't even the worst ever for a Pixar movie, but you'd think it was based on the negative press/tweets.

Even die-hard Disney / Pixar fans that I talk to have no clue that the good dinosaur exists. Haha

 

[Ghost93]

Both Onward and The Good Dinosaur had $39 million opening day weekends, so this isn't even the worst ever for a Pixar movie, but you'd think it was based on the negative press/tweets.

I think its because people were expecting Lightyear to perform like a Toy Story movie. But it's nothing like a Toy Story movie. It doesn't even resemble the character Buzz Lightyear was based off of in the Toy Story movies.

While I enjoyed the film, I reiterate my earlier point that it feels like Pixar had an original idea for a time-traveling space movie and retroactively tweaked the concept to tie-into the Buzz Lightyear IP.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I think its because people were expecting Lightyear to perform like a Toy Story movie. But it's nothing like a Toy Story movie. It doesn't even resemble the character Buzz Lightyear was based off of in the Toy Story movies.

While I enjoyed the film, I reiterate my earlier point that it feels like Pixar had an original idea for a time-traveling space movie and retroactively tweaked the concept to tie-into the Buzz Lightyear IP.

Must admit that the concept didn't really appeal to me. I know it's not gritty as such, but I did wonder whether people were really calling out for a grittier reboot of Buzz Lightyear.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Just looking up more numbers because they've been recorded before...

Cars 3 had a $53.6 million opening day weekend

Coco had a $50.8 million opening day weekend

I have to agree that the Toy Story connection seems to have inflated expectations.