Lightning Lane Premier Pass

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
How so?

On the day you can modify it, either the time or the ride & time.

And once you’ve tapped out not one then you have even more choice.
I think they’re saying that there aren’t enough slots to move anything around…maybe from 11 am to like 8:15 pm…but generally speaking it’s not easy to modify.

Same problem growing for decades…you need slots for your customers and they haven’t built it. Really at all
 

Purduevian

Well-Known Member
It'll be a topic whenever you have lines and wait times. You can go back 20-30 years and find internet polls asking if Disney is worth the money.
I guess I just found it interesting that Disney has been inflating standby wait times for at least 23 years. I think this further backs up the idea that this isn't some new thing they are doing to sell more LLs
Because MP sucks. I'm certain there are people who love to have things planned seven days ahead, but my family will never purchase it because I'm not promised to get any decent rides. I've read so many stories of people purchasing LLMP and finding every single decent attraction already sold out. Why would someone pay $120 for a family of 4 to go ride Barnstormer, Dumbo, and Little Mermaid? For all the crap Genie+ received, I'd take it over MP in a heartbeat. If you knew the system, you could get a ton of value out of it and ride all that you wanted to. I can't get any real value out of MP.

With that said, I am well aware that my family's success with Genie+ came at the expense of others' failures.
I used G+ twice at WDW and LLMP once so far. If you dig and understand either system, both had pretty good results. I think LLMP has a lower celling, but a higher floor than G+ (Meaning power users did better at G+, but the average user probably does better with LLMP).

My last trip, on LLMP I prebooked Tiana, HM, and Pooh. I was able to pick up JC, Pirates, Big Thunder, Pan, Mermaid, Dumbo, Barnstormer, and Buzz that day.

EPCOT on that same trip started with SSE, Nemo, and Frozen. I was able to pick up Soarin, the Land, Figment, and Remy throughout that day.

LLPP obviously takes no knowledge and no phone time and yields better results than even a computer could probably pull (looking at you Standby Skipper)
 

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
I guess I just found it interesting that Disney has been inflating standby wait times for at least 23 years. I think this further backs up the idea that this isn't some new thing they are doing to sell more LLs

I used G+ twice at WDW and LLMP once so far. If you dig and understand either system, both had pretty good results. I think LLMP has a lower celling, but a higher floor than G+ (Meaning power users did better at G+, but the average user probably does better with LLMP).

My last trip, on LLMP I prebooked Tiana, HM, and Pooh. I was able to pick up JC, Pirates, Big Thunder, Pan, Mermaid, Dumbo, Barnstormer, and Buzz that day.

EPCOT on that same trip started with SSE, Nemo, and Frozen. I was able to pick up Soarin, the Land, Figment, and Remy throughout that day.

LLPP obviously takes no knowledge and no phone time and yields better results than even a computer could probably pull (looking at you Standby Skipper)
I agree - and think that is what Disney preferred and also the "average" guest would prefer

Power users definitely were able to maximize Genie+ more if they wanted to focus on tier 1 type rides.

Having the tiers with LLMP spreads crowds a bit and better ensure everyone can get at least a couple rides they really want but less likely to get everything
 

Purduevian

Well-Known Member
I agree - and think that is what Disney preferred and also the "average" guest would prefer

Power users definitely were able to maximize Genie+ more if they wanted to focus on tier 1 type rides.

Having the tiers with LLMP spreads crowds a bit and better ensure everyone can get at least a couple rides they really want but less likely to get everything
The G+ system was easier to maximize. The system always had massive jumps in time exactly 7am, 2 hours and 4 hours after park opening. If the user was 10 seconds late, it could cost hours. Even worse, the issue continued to stack. If the park opened at 8am and you booked LL2 at 10:02, you now couldn't book again until 12:02pm putting you even further and further behind (assuming you were stuck with the 2 hour rule).

LLMP on the other hand "forces" everyone to get at least 3 attractions and the jumps are not nearly as extreme after the initial booking period.

Even though I could get on more attractions with G+, I think I actually preferred my LLMP day as I was better able to plan what area of the park I wanted to be at and at what time. Grouping LLs together is huge.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
How so?

On the day you can modify it, either the time or the ride & time.

And once you’ve tapped out not one then you have even more choice.
In theory.
You can only modify a pass to a different time if it is still available. On the whole tier 1's aren't available same day, and most of the rest sell out as the day goes on. That's what I meant.

So sure, you can change Remy to Nemo, but that's not a good trade, IMO. I was also partly trying to draw a contrast from my experience using G+. I wasn't always able to modify G+ passes either, but more able to modify them than I've have using LLMP.

In HS as of 2pm the following are the available options: Aliens 8pm, MMRR out, MF 8:25pm, RNRC out, Slinky out, Rise out, TSM 9pm, ToT out.

While the tiers open up after you tap your 1st, you are still looking at leftovers. Looking above, I'm slightly surprised to see TSM available. It is probably an afternoon drop that was not available half an hour ago. You will generally NOT see same-day passes for Remy or FEA. The tier 1 you prebook in Epcot is the usually one you get, and you have little control over the time you are assigned. You can maybe swap 11am for 4pm - if you do it 3 days before you arrive or get lucky with a late drop. If you are offsite, you might only be offered Soarin'.

If I was in HS right now and realized I would not able be to use a1:30-2:30pm pass for ToT, my HS alternate options are pretty limited. Mind, I'm just using now as an example. Mostly, when I'm at WDW, mostly if I was looking at modifying passes, it was usually more like 9:30am.

There is also the phantom availability I mentioned. What you can see from home is not often what you can actually book when you attempt to book a pass. MDE often said passes were available until I tried to book them, or else the timing of the pass jumped wildly. What looked like a 1-2pm pass instantly changed to some random, much later time, like 5-6pm.

I also meant that if you entirely miss a time window entirely, say Buzz, you can't rebook that specific attraction again, or modify the time window by yourself. You can book a different pass, but the only option to use the Buzz LL is if a blue tent CM can reinstate the pass.

This last part was a real problem when WDW has/had the Virtual Queues. My VQ group was called for Tiana, but the wait for Tiana was 2 hours, and I therefore missed 2 return windows. (they overlapped 10minutes, and the 1st was just about to start when my BG was called.) Technically, I was off Tiana before then 2nd LL expired, but it was SpaceMtn, and I only had a few min left inside my official time window. No way was I running across MK in the mid-day summer heat.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
I think they’re saying that there aren’t enough slots to move anything around…maybe from 11 am to like 8:15 pm…but generally speaking it’s not easy to modify.

Same problem growing for decades…you need slots for your customers and they haven’t built it. Really at all
Slinky, Remy, Tiana, Na'vi are usually 100% gone- on the day you plan to use them.
 

Fido Chuckwagon

Well-Known Member
The only time Disney truly “inflates” standby times is at the end of the day. The rest of the time the posted waits are going to be slightly inflated because they’re going to err on the side of the lines being longer so as not to off their customers with unexpectedly long waits, the same reason they’r’e doing it today is why they were doing it 23 years ago. It has nothing to do with “selling more lightning lanes.”
 

JD80

Well-Known Member
I guess I just found it interesting that Disney has been inflating standby wait times for at least 23 years. I think this further backs up the idea that this isn't some new thing they are doing to sell more LLs

I think it's more about manipulating posted wait times more for crowd control than anything else. It's just more magnified today because we have phones that can see every posted wait time at any time of the day and we have data driven websites that track and record that data constantly.

We're just more aware now. I blame @lentesta with this curse of knowledge :D
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
The only time Disney truly “inflates” standby times is at the end of the day.
Not in my experience.

It happens often at night, and I agree mid-day posted waits trend closer to accurate, but I've experienced significantly inflated waits during all park hours. (IME, they also trend more common in the am.)

Recently, TRON had a very inflated posted standby in the midafternoon when I rode it. I am not at WDW every day, but I'm fairly confident TRON regularly posts rather inflated wait times.

Oh, plus EE.
 
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MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
I think it's more about manipulating posted wait times more for crowd control than anything else. It's just more magnified today because we have phones that can see every posted wait time at any time of the day and we have data driven websites that track and record that data constantly.

We're just more aware now. I blame @lentesta with this curse of knowledge :D
I remember looking at Peter Pan and other similar rides back when the queue was all outdoors, in the days of paper FP. and I could ballpark the actual vs. posted wait. It is also a little harder to tell nowadays because the number of people using the FP/LL queues has increased since those days. Back then, my rule of thumb was if the wait was 20min or less, we waited. If it was over 25min, we pulled a FP. PP especially was one we often FPassed.

Most times, we didn't need to pull FP every two hours because many attractions were normally in the 20min or less range, like Pooh and Buzz. It was pretty common that we'd go on Buzz or the PeopleMover while waiting for our Space Mtn FP time window.

One of the shifts I have felt is that we used to tour at a leisurely pace. If we wanted to sit on a bench for a few min for a snack, or spend an afternoon swimming, or just relax at the hotel, there was no pressure to hurry back to the parks. Now that the prices are so high, park hours are shorter, and I'm paying for LLMP- I feel a considerably more need to cram in as many rides as possible.

I think I'm not alone. I think that is a factor we overlook on this forum: park touring styles have changed because of the way the system now works. FP+ was when the system started to change in this direction, IMO, but the VQ's and paid FP options have just accelerated it.

There were many times we went to Epcot mostly to walk around. Now, I wouldn't dare go without trying to ride GoG/Remy. Well, I could skip Remy when TT reopens. Remy is great, but now that I've been on it many times over, it is not on my must-do list.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
I stand corrected on the purchase before booking. My mistake. I still believe it's not as optimal. Like what Purduveian said, probably a higher floor, but a much lower ceiling imo.
This is the benefit of this forum. :) We can help each other keep up with the frequently changing details. and they change all too often!

That is another aspect of WDW that isn't very good, IMO. The names alone are terrible and stupidly confusing, and frequently change. they will probably change it all again in a year or two.

I believe the word that fits is obfuscation.
 

Fido Chuckwagon

Well-Known Member
It happens often at night, and I agree mid-day posted waits trend closer to accurate, but I've experienced significantly inflated waits during all park hours. (IME, they also trend more common in the am.)
That’s not them “inflating” the wait times though. That’s just them being wrong. They’re always going to err on the side of a higher wait time than a lower wait time, and wait times are harder to estimate in the morning because the lines build up very quickly and they don’t always update them as quickly as they build up, and because the AM wait times are very much an estimate based on a number of factors at any given moment.

I could have written that the only time they are “intentionally inflating” wait times is right before park close I suppose.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
That’s not them “inflating” the wait times though. That’s just them being wrong. They’re always going to err on the side of a higher wait time than a lower wait time, and wait times are harder to estimate in the morning because the lines build up very quickly and they don’t always update them as quickly as they build up, and because the AM wait times are very much an estimate based on a number of factors at any given moment.

I could have written that the only time they are “intentionally inflating” wait times is right before park close I suppose.
Again, not in my experience.

Afternoon posted TRON was 65.

Actual was 22 minutes, and that includes (ample time) using the lockers.

Also, just as one example: this past Jan, there was no large rush of people in the morning any of the days I was there. The parks were all dead. But the posted waits were often rather inflated. I took notes.

Posted Frozen morning was 25. Actual was 7minutes, and that was with having to wait for the next boat at boarding. It was like that all day.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Again, not in my experience.

Afternoon posted TRON was 65.

Actual was 22 minutes, and that includes (ample time) using the lockers.

Also, just as one example: this past Jan, there was no large rush of people in the morning any of the days I was there. The parks were all dead. But the posted waits were often rather inflated. I took notes.

Posted Frozen morning was 25. Actual was 7minutes, and that was with having to wait for the next boat at boarding. It was like that all day.
It's the one thing I don't get. I understand why they inflate wait times. What I don't get is how they got to be this bad at guesstimating wait times? Back in the day of the red lanyards they were pretty good at wait times.
 

Fido Chuckwagon

Well-Known Member
Again, not in my experience.

Afternoon posted TRON was 65.

Actual was 22 minutes, and that includes (ample time) using the lockers.

Also, just as one example: this past Jan, there was no large rush of people in the morning any of the days I was there. The parks were all dead. But the posted waits were often rather inflated. I took notes.

Posted Frozen morning was 25. Actual was 7minutes, and that was with having to wait for the next boat at boarding. It was like that all day.
Anecdotal evidence is not proof. I’ve also waited in lines that were longer than the posted wait. I believe @lentesta at one point did some research that tended to show that there was not a systematic inflation of wait times (other than at park close). Obviously, day to day Disney is going to be off on wait times at any given moment. Ride downtime, lines that quickly build up, etc., can all lead to that. In addition, Disney undoubtedly takes all that into account when giving their estimates such that a ride running unusually well and/or a line not building up like expected could lead to what appears to be an “inflated” posted wait.
 

lentesta

Premium Member
Anecdotal evidence is not proof. I’ve also waited in lines that were longer than the posted wait. I believe @lentesta at one point did some research that tended to show that there was not a systematic inflation of wait times (other than at park close). Obviously, day to day Disney is going to be off on wait times at any given moment. Ride downtime, lines that quickly build up, etc., can all lead to that. In addition, Disney undoubtedly takes all that into account when giving their estimates such that a ride running unusually well and/or a line not building up like expected could lead to what appears to be an “inflated” posted wait.

IIRC it was 75% of the time the posted wait was longer than the actual. 24% of the time the posted wait was lower than the actual. And like 1% of the time it was accurate.

I haven't checked in 2025. We're pushing out a new method for predicting actual waits next week. Let me get through that and I can look at this.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
IIRC it was 75% of the time the posted wait was longer than the actual. 24% of the time the posted wait was lower than the actual. And like 1% of the time it was accurate.

I haven't checked in 2025. We're pushing out a new method for predicting actual waits next week. Let me get through that and I can look at this.
Why do they struggle so much wait times? I know downtime plays a factor but somehow Universal and regional parks are better at getting close to accurate wait times.
 

lentesta

Premium Member
Why do they struggle so much wait times? I know downtime plays a factor but somehow Universal and regional parks are better at getting close to accurate wait times.

Let me answer that question with another question:

How much would the stock price go up in the next year if Disney spent more to get more accurate wait times?

I suspect the answer is zero, which tells you why they don't do it.

I've not checked to see if Universal is better. Based on what I know about regional parks, I suspect they're not great.
 

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