Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[Jeff4272]

Why are people thinking people only got 1 or 2 rides in or G+? It's 3pm right now, so even in the worst scenario, you should be looking for you fourth LL right now (9,11,1,3). So I'm assuming people have already gotten 3 LL for rides and still have: 4:35 Star tours, and most shows.

So 3 Rides+ Star tours and a show is worth $15 to me especially when the lines look like this:
Alien: 36
MFSR:65
RnRC:80
SDD:100
ST:20
TSMM:55
ToT:50

Realistically you got either SDD or MFSR. Then 2 of RnRC, TSMM, and ToT
Seems better than the old FP+ System where every ride except ST was a tier 1

They were "sold out" hours ago and next week during thanksgiving it will be sold out even earlier

Thats the point, today you only got one at 7am and then 2 hours after the park opened at 11am before they all sold out

I bet next week during thanksgiving the top 6 rides will be sold out before 11am

 

[Purduevian]

They were "sold out" hours ago and next week during thanksgiving it will be sold out even earlier

From 37 minutes ago...

Now it looks like some rides have availability. I'm showing the following return times:

Alien Saucers - 7:40 PM
MMRR - 8:00 PM ILL
RnRC - 8:05 PM
Star Tours - 4:30 PM
TSM - 8:10 PM
ToT - 8:10 PM

Still not great return times if you haven't had a chance to ride the headliners in that group. Star Tours is the only one that isn't 5+ hours away. If I were there and paid for G+, I'd pick TSM (no interest in ToT or RnRC) and head back to the hotel for an afternoon break. If something good opened up in 2 hours when I would be eligible to make another selection, then great. If not, then it would be pool/hot tub time and then dinner.

Yes Thanksgiving will sell out faster, but the standby lines will also be longer. So your $15 still skips the same quene time, even if it's one less ride.
Still imagine most of the week will give you 1 of either SDD or MFSR before opening. Then at 11 you'll be able to pick one of ToT, RnRC, or TSMM. at 1pm you can either get a show, ST or maybe Alien.

 

[Jeff4272]

From 37 minutes ago...


Yes Thanksgiving will sell out faster, but the standby lines will also be longer. So your $15 still skips the same quene time, even if it's one less ride.
Still imagine most of the week will give you 1 of either SDD or MFSR before opening. Then at 11 you'll be able to pick one of ToT, RnRC, or TSMM. at 1pm you can either get a show, ST or maybe Alien.

I doubt that......I bet ToT and RnRC will both be gone before 11am along with SDD and MFSR.......I also think paid IAS will be gone by park opening for both rides

 

[LovePop]

When Genie+ first debuted, it looked pretty good -- you can get G+ on most rides with a limited wait, sometimes no wait at all. So I really thought I should get Genie+. Right now it's not looking so good at all. For example, Pirates is 35 minutes wait, but G+ is for 2 hours later. Why? Fastpass should not be much longer than wait time being that you are just waiting virtually, and wait time should be calculated with total number of fastpass and in line people together. This makes Genie+ not dependable and not worthwhile. I am rather disappointed. I was going to get G+ for sure, but now it doesn't look like it's worth it. Hm.

 

[Purduevian]

I doubt that......I bet ToT and RnRC will both be gone before 11am along with SDD and MFSR.......I also think paid IAS will be gone by park opening for both rides

We shall see! Some back of the napikin math...
DHS has an estimated capacity of 75,000 guests. with 30% buying G+ that leaves 25,000 people looking for that first LL+

SDD has an hourly capacity of 1440. Lets assume 60% LL meaning 864 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,368 of peoples first LL goes to SDD

MFSR has an hourly capacity of ~1500. 60% is 900 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,800 of peoples first LL goes to MFSR

So SDD and MFSR "soak up" ~21,000 LL assuming they sell out before park open. That leaves ~4,000 still picking their first LL looking through ToT, RnRC, and TSMM.

In the first 2 hours, 864 people ride SDD, 900 ride MFSR, and about 5,000 through the rest of the LL rides. Meaning ~7,000 will have booked their second LL before 11.

 

[mikejs78]

From 37 minutes ago...


Yes Thanksgiving will sell out faster, but the standby lines will also be longer. So your $15 still skips the same quene time, even if it's one less ride.
Still imagine most of the week will give you 1 of either SDD or MFSR before opening. Then at 11 you'll be able to pick one of ToT, RnRC, or TSMM. at 1pm you can either get a show, ST or maybe Alien.

I don't think that will be acceptable to most guests who buy G+. Certainly wouldn't be for me.

 

[lightningtap347]

On my trip over the week for the Half Marathon, I asked my old CM friends from my area what/if anything has changed. Based on their response, it doesn't seem like the merge ratios themselves have changed at all, and they're still using the phase cards I have in my wallet. That doesn't mean they're working by those merges, as if only 1/3rd of the original system is used, then you're rarely going to actually need to use the ratios.

Regarding standby, the lines DID MOVE QUICKER. The posted waits were also outright lies more often then not (suspiciously high for FOP). I watched a family of 8 pay for LL for FOP and I decided I would time the 60 minute posted wait. My actual wait? 7 minutes. Something was off, and I feel bad for that family.

 

[mikejs78]

We shall see! Some back of the napikin math...
DHS has an estimated capacity of 75,000 guests. with 30% buying G+ that leaves 25,000 people looking for that first LL+

SDD has an hourly capacity of 1440. Lets assume 60% LL meaning 864 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,368 of peoples first LL goes to SDD

MFSR has an hourly capacity of ~1500. 60% is 900 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,800 of peoples first LL goes to MFSR

So SDD and MFSR "soak up" ~21,000 LL assuming they sell out before park open. That leaves ~4,000 still picking their first LL looking through ToT, RnRC, and TSMM.

In the first 2 hours, 864 people ride SDD, 900 ride MFSR, and about 5,000 through the rest of the LL rides. Meaning ~7,000 will have booked their second LL before 11.

Parks still aren't at full capacity and they are selling out. I'm thinking they aren't allocating much capacity to LL... The only question is why.

 

[Jeff4272]

We shall see! Some back of the napikin math...
DHS has an estimated capacity of 75,000 guests. with 30% buying G+ that leaves 25,000 people looking for that first LL+

SDD has an hourly capacity of 1440. Lets assume 60% LL meaning 864 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,368 of peoples first LL goes to SDD

MFSR has an hourly capacity of ~1500. 60% is 900 LL per hour. 12 hour day means 10,800 of peoples first LL goes to MFSR

So SDD and MFSR "soak up" ~21,000 LL assuming they sell out before park open. That leaves ~4,000 still picking their first LL looking through ToT, RnRC, and TSMM.

In the first 2 hours, 864 people ride SDD, 900 ride MFSR, and about 5,000 through the rest of the LL rides. Meaning ~7,000 will have booked their second LL before 11.

excellent post........

Genie+ is not worth it to me if i'm only getting 1 or 2 rides

Not sure how other people feel but doesnt add up for me

 

[Purduevian]

excellent post........

Genie+ is not worth it to me if i'm only getting 1 or 2 rides

Not sure how other people feel but doesnt add up for me

Yup, everyone's time vs money is different. Personally $15 is worth a line skip on MFSR (lets call in 90 mins), ToT (lets call it 70 minutes) and Star tours (lets call it 20 mins) to me. But I also travel in a pair instead of a family so $30 vs $60 or $75 is a big difference. (~$0.08 per minute of line skipped per person).

People are already paying $15 to skip a 2ish hour RotR line ($0.125/min per person).

 

[mikejs78]

excellent post........

Genie+ is not worth it to me if i'm only getting 1 or 2 rides

Not sure how other people feel but doesnt add up for me

Same. I'm fine paying for G+ if the experience is worth it. I'd expect to be able to get access to 4-5 attractions easily with G+. At minimum, either SDD or MFSR, and then TSM, ToT, RnRC, and something else.

 

[jpinkc]

Parks still aren't at full capacity and they are selling out. I'm thinking they aren't allocating much capacity to LL... The only question is why.

WHY? $$$$$$$ For Slappie to show how good he is doing. I think the parks are back to pre pandemic capacity from our Disney Agent. She was told that they are back to normal and not controling attendance below the normal (pre pandemic) operating levels. Just short on staff just about everywhere, but they were not operating at 50% crowd capacity or anything like that anymore.

 

[Ayla]

Every single hotel room, DVC property and restaurant is 100% booked........You cannot get 1 night at any hotel......even during the busy times in years past there would be campsites, all stars, pop or good neighbor availability.......

Not this year....Pent up demand travel is here and this will be a real test of Genie+

Disney won't book only one night.

 

[CAV]

This is super disheartening. I will be there next week.

If you want to ride SDD via LL, it has to be your first selection.

So, unless you get one between 9-11am, you won't be able to book again until 11am and most likely everything will be mid - late afternoon, if available at all.

Irritating, but unfortunate, when they were "included", but now when people are paying a la carte pricing, it's going to be a HUGE problem for Disney.

Huge problem? Probably not. PT Barnum said someone is always willing to pay $15 to ride SDD or something like that.

 

[JakeAZ]

Huge problem? Probably not. PT Barnum said someone is always willing to pay $15 to ride SDD or something like that.

That PT Barnum guy always knew what to say.

Huge problem in that guests are going to be complaining left and right if they end up getting 2/3 LL times over the course of a park being open for 12 hours.

Not a huge problem for Disney's bank account. But I'd hate to be working guest recovery for the next couple months.

 

[RoadiJeff]

From reading this thread, it doesn't sound like the war cries of boycotting Disney due to higher prices and less choices has had much of an influence on the general attendance.

 

[JakeAZ]

From reading this thread, it doesn't sound like the war cries of boycotting Disney due to higher prices and less choices has had much of an influence on the general attendance.

Everything right now is pent up demand. Trips that were canceled in 2020. DVC points that need to be used.

But I can tell you, after our trip next week (2020 reschedule), I have no desire to go back. The kids will get their trip, but the prospect of DVC ownership or every 2/3 year trips is long gone.

The is the first time I've planned a comprehensive trip where it doesn't matter what we do, where we stay or how much money we throw at it....it just always feels like we haven't spent enough.

I'm sure there will be plenty of people behind us, but I sense a breaking point, for many, coming.

 

[dreday3]

Everything right now is pent up demand. Trips that were canceled in 2020. DVC points that need to be used.

But I can tell you, after our trip next week (2020 reschedule), I have no desire to go back. The kids will get their trip, but the prospect of DVC ownership or every 2/3 year trips is long gone.

The is the first time I've planned a comprehensive trip where it doesn't matter what we do, where we stay or how much money we throw at it....it just always feels like we haven't spent enough.

I'm sure there will be plenty of people behind us, but I sense a breaking point, for many, coming.

We actually left this trip pretty excited to go back in 2023. I feel like I did no planning at all for this trip!

Hopefully things will be back to normal as far as pandemic stuff/supply issues.
Looking forward to what Epcot is going to look like. Hopefully returning to stay in Epcot resort loop.

And most importantly, will finally be just the two of us again!!!

I knew our October trip would be/feel different, and it did. But that's a pandemic for you.

 

[mikejs78]

WHY? $$$$$$$ For Slappie to show how good he is doing. I think the parks are back to pre pandemic capacity from our Disney Agent. She was told that they are back to normal and not controling attendance below the normal (pre pandemic) operating levels. Just short on staff just about everywhere, but they were not operating at 50% crowd capacity or anything like that anymore.

I do not think that's true. A travel agent would not have any knowledge on park capacity. I know for October 1 they capped MK at 40,000 for example.

Does anyone know if they are still restricting capacity? @ToTBellHop @peter11435? I mean, tomorrow you can't get a reservation for MK or Epcot. I doubt it's at pre-pandemic phased closing levels right now.

 

[JakeAZ]

Does anyone know if they are still restricting capacity (even if they aren't hitting those caps)?

MK are HS are "full" the week of Thanksgiving. AK on same days too. Epcot is the only park with full availability.