Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

pdude81

pdude81

Well-Known Member
VaderTron said:
While you cornered the market at the exact time, this would not have been a good investment had you bought in 2010/2011. The current resale price is the same as it was back then. When you add in the annual dues and closing costs at purchase, you would have paid tens of thousands of dollars over the past decade for something that has the same value 10 years later. In that scenario, the previous poster was correct. Not better than investing in stock market.

However, since you happened to buy at a good low point before the regain to 2010/2011 levels, my recommendation would be to sell. You currently have about a $15,000 profit margin even with annual dues and closing costs paid, (and of course your "free" vacations spent in DVC rooms). Even with capital gains tax you will probably walk away with a cool $13,000 in total profit (which, again, takes into account the money you already spent in transaction and maintenance fees.) That won't be the case forever. Looking historically, Disney hits plateaus after large gains over a few years which eats into the overall gains. And then, of course, things like pandemics cause loss in value.

EDIT: Of course, if you ever rented out DVC points this opens up a whole new can of worms in resale value, adding more complications than a Wookie wandering into a Trandoshan hunting camp. Call a tax professional and get ready to enjoy the "Magic" of figuring out what you owe.
Click to expand...
There is no rational analysis to be made when it comes to DVC points. I believe BLT was selling new in 2010/2011 in the ballpark of 140pp, so even those people can break even with commissions after 10 years of ownership. Not too shabby. The common wisdom when I bought Polynesian direct in 2016/2017 was that you should always buy resale and the blue card wasn't worth it, but I've saved a ton of money on annual passes so far and those points can easily sell now for $10 a point more than I paid for them.

If there is anything I can follow that seems to track somewhat with these costs it's the stock market, which I can't believe is still up where it is. This is why I pay other people to manage money, as I would have been out a year ago and missed a lot of gains. I have been expecting a major dropoff for a year in the markets and DVC but hasn't happened.

Now I agree that it's a nice score to sell off BLT and take the money, but honestly that is a lower point cost resort (compared to today) and I don't see it dropping below $100 per point for at least 5-10 more years.

To rein this back in and focus on the actual topic at hand, DVC resorts having on-site deluxe benefits is huge for someone like Jeff. He can choose to buy the 7am ILL passes or not, but those extra evening hours at MK and Epcot are really beneficial for someone who wants to rest and sleep in. I'd also argue that Genie+ will be a big help for his style of touring and and the ILL rides will be doable with evening hours or DAH events when everything goes back to normal. I'm a rope droppper and this is more ideal for me, but I think there is something everybody can use here as long as they are prepared to schedule their first G+ at least 5 minutes before park open.
 
pdude81

pdude81

Well-Known Member
Jeff4272 said:
The thing that DVC has in its favor vs regular real estate/time share market is that it’s tied to the hotel market.
Disney hotel rooms go up in price at a higher rate than any other hotel I’ve ever been in.

while there is an expiration to your dvc contract, with BLT in 2060, the value and appreciation will be there for years to come. That’s why expiration date is so important.

Im not selling my BLT contracts and I’d be will to bet you a years worth of my points that 5 years from now the resale on BLT is WAY higher than it is right now, especially with inflation being early in the first inning.
Click to expand...
Resale price predictions are roughly as accurate as a blindfolded dart throw, but in your case I wouldn't sell either. At worst if you rode this thing for 10 more years you at least broke even based on what you paid.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Glasgow said:
Concept - not bad
Cost - meh, okay
Spending half of my vacation worrying about my daily attraction schedule on my phone* - fail

Their master plan has finally come to fruition. People have become so exasperated about the previous 10 years of capacity problems that not only is Disney able to put the onus of scheduling and vacation satisfaction indirectly onto the customer's shoulders, they are making more money doing it! Genius!!

*Yes, we all largely do all of our attraction on our phones already .. but its still stressful either way
Click to expand...
…you’re not wrong. It’s like the boat got steered for 15 years and then asked the rudder “what happened?!?”
 
D

dirtnap101

Member
Re: the Brickers' experience on Day 1 of G+, it's interesting but really doesn't show much other than that for the average solo guest, G+ is a more favorable experience. First and foremost, they are each a party of 1, which is unusual in WDW. Touring with 3, 4, 5 or more people on a trip to WDW is a totally different experience. And yes, if you are a seasoned WDW vet with several dozen (or hundreds) of trips under your belt and have a Magic Kingdom "Spidey-sense" like Tom Bricker, and you have the competitive nature of Tom Bricker, you can get close to the G experience, and that's on a day rated as crowd level of 3 by Touring Plans.

Regarding the different ways to tour WDW, it's all over the place and it's always been all over the place. Some prefer rope drop, some prefer rolling in later. Some prefer park hopping, others don't. Some get up early, rope drop, and stay all day, all out effort to be in the parks. Some rope drop and take a mid-day break at the hotel pool, then go back or hop to another park. Some depends on party size and age. I have my current preference, but none of them are wrong.

However, the way Disney runs their parks can sometimes give advantages to certain styles of touring. This has been true from the various rules around paper FP, FP+ and now Genie+. Everyone needs to decide if the way G+ and ILL are going to drive optimal touring is acceptable for them. Some will decide no and others will decide yes, both due to touring style factors as well as cost factors and planning factors.

Some will balk at the overall prices of a WDW vacation in 2022, regardless of the way they tour. Some will decide it's not worth it due to the way they prefer to tour. The reality is that if enough customers decide this current overall model is acceptable, WDW will continue on this way. If enough decide it doesn't work well enough for them and their touring style, then WDW will be forced to change in a variety of ways.

In full disclosure, we are an every 5 years family. We like to rope drop, take a break 2-5pm at our WDW resort (1 hour swim, 1 hour nap, 1 hour for relaxing in the room and getting ready for the evening). We are very wait-in-line adverse, and prefer to optimize and give up sleep in the morning to instead relax/nap in the middle of the day and use the parks' crowded afternoon time to take a break. We will then hop to a park that is open late with fireworks with lesser crowds (almost always Epcot) for the late afternoon/evening.

Our last visit was 2016 and our next trip is a MLK 4-day weekend in January, and the plan is MK/EP Friday, HS/EP Sat and HS/EP Sunday. As we don't visit that often, we will likely use G+ and ILL. We prefer to stay at an Epcot area resort for easy walking access to both HS and EP, the parks we will be in the most. We haven't been to HS since 2013, way before GE and we want to experience the GE rides with a minimum of wait. I don't like the extra costs, the number of convoluted steps (park ressies and limited hopping, dated tickets, price increases) or the general way Chapek has decided to run the parks, and those things will definitely impact our thoughts on future visits to both WDW and DL now that the experience has been mostly homogenized between both coasts. Our son is almost 14 and our optimal way of touring has been and will be altered by his growth and our desires as older people as time goes on. It could be our last visit, but it may not. It all depends on how management steers the ship, which lately is not in an encouraging direction.
 
Last edited:
Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Casper Gutman said:
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
Click to expand...
You will be judged for this as being an “alarmist” by those that can’t handle the concept of being a responsible consumer that doesn’t owe unconditional support for something because of their emotions…

…and others will realize that your sadly closer to a realist…and that it’s not joyful.

and you forgot schlep a minimum average $150-$200+ transportation cost per family onto them with literally no explanation.
 
Last edited:
Baloo62

Baloo62

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
Click to expand...
Perfectly stated and 1000% accurate.
 
W

wutisgood

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
Click to expand...
I will deff be spending the money on either LA or tokyo for Disney and dollywood or europa park or other europe parks otherwise.
 
F

fgmnt

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
Click to expand...
wow, this is... grim!

I really long for the days my friends can finish grad school in Orlando and I am not drawn into the gyre so easily.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
If you had told this board in 2016 that by 2021 tickets would not only be over $100 but would cost around $135, Fast Pass would be a pay service, parks would require reservations, it would take about 90 minutes to two hours to phone guest services, the slate of rides that would be announced in 2017 would still not be open, entertainment would be cut to the bone, every parade would be cancelled, the nighttime shows would be replaced with inferior versions, and the parking lot trams would be defunct, not a single person would believe it. Most would assume it was a parody that was too exaggerated to really hit home. Disney’s defenders would accuse you of arguing in bad faith and having a cartoonishly evil view of corporations.

Now imagine what Genie+ and standby lines will be like by 2026.

And no, it’s not primarily the pandemic - that’s Disney’s excuse, but look at them pack lines or stuff people into the ferries or monorails at MK close. They’re not constrained by the pandemic and haven’t been for a while. And the prices and Genie are totally unrelated.
Click to expand...
You guys keep saying that but you guys still keep going back. Look at those who first said they hate Genie+ and not going to buy it. Now all of a sudden they are trying to figure out how to get the best use of it. If you want to make a statement it's got to come from the hardcores and their word of mouth.
 
Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
You guys keep saying that but you guys still keep going back. Look at those who first said they hate Genie+ and not going to buy it. Now all of a sudden they are trying to figure out how to get the best use of it. If you want to make a statement it's got to come from the hardcores and their word of mouth.
Click to expand...
I go a lot less. About 12% or so as much as I used to. And I haven’t stayed at a WDW resort in decades. Why do posters always assume the curmudgeons haven’t dramatically changed their behavior?
 
Epcot82Guy

Epcot82Guy

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
You guys keep saying that but you guys still keep going back. Look at those who first said they hate Genie+ and not going to buy it. Now all of a sudden they are trying to figure out how to get the best use of it. If you want to make a statement it's got to come from the hardcores and their word of mouth.
Click to expand...
To be fair - not all of us. And I'm an Orlando resident now. I actively avoid going to Disney property at all and actively don't spend money if I ever do (and usually only to see someone out of town where I try to see if we can meet elsewhere). I know I'm just one person, but it has taken a number of folks either out of the loop or reduced the visits.
 
Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
It does have be an either of proposition. If you hate what it's become why continue to support it? My guess is you're addicted to the pixie dust and can't stay away.
Click to expand...
OR Disney World means a lot to me, has been important to my life, and I still think AK and MGM are good, if overpriced, parks. Even EPCOT still holds nostalgia for me, though it’s current state makes that bittersweet.
Amazingly, some people can engage critically with things that they also partially enjoy. This seems really hard for certain people to grasp.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom