Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[DCBaker]

 

[Disstevefan1]

10 Famous Companies That Went Bankrupt or No Longer Exist

Innovation can quickly leave a business behind if it can’t adjust to new ways of operating, or to changing customer demand for new products and services.

learn.stash.com

TWDC will never be on the list.... I do miss Radio Shack's walls of electronics components (resistors, capacitors, transistors)..

 

[mikejs78]

The pandemic proved this because Disney lost $10-15 billion dollars in this division and not only did in not hurt them (because of the deep cost cutting and increase in pricing of everything) , the division looks to be thriving; I know you call out the 60ish number, but the parks looks full. Heck, it is in the 60ish percentile, now IS THE TIME TO VISIT before its back to the 2019 mobs.

The prices for everything is higher than ever, they are about to launch Genie + and individual lightning lane which will bring in tons of money for effectively nothing.

The 50th merch is selling well and there is a lot of it. There is also over a hundred different 50th food items for the 50th, it's just food they would have served anyway but its branded as a 50th offering.

Forget about us. There are many more people that are visiting WDW for the first time right now. These folks have nothing to compare to.

There are many people that may have made a visit in the 70s and 80s and want to visit for the 50th, these folks won't even remember what it was like to compare to, maybe just the prices but its too late by then they are in WDW and just deal with it.

If what we see in WDW is a bursting bubble you could have fooled me.

Maybe I can change my catch phrase to, "TWDC easily survives the bubble bursting".
That does not roll of the tongue, I will work on something..

That's if the 2019 mobs come. It's not like the parks will ever be empty but again, the goal is growth; not stagnation. If they even lose 1% they will revert decisions. The bubble bursting is an exaggeration for sure but the slightest hint of a loss due to price increases, entertainment modifications/terminations, etc. they will pull back.

I'm not sure # of guests matter to them anymore. (And here I will challenge @Sirwalterraleigh, who I am *sure* will disagree with me ).

I think Disney no longer cares about attendance numbers.

Look at the occupancy rate. It's at 60% or thereabouts, but they are not offering hotel discounts for the first time that I can remember. Everything is rack rate. Why are they not offering discounts? They easily could and tick up the occupancy a bit.

But let's look at theme parks. Let's say MK has an average of 50k guests per day. And let's say the average spend per guest per day is $250. That's 12.5M per day.

Now let's say that Disney figures that if they cut the number of guests by 20%, the average guest spend will go up to $350/day (shorter lines = more time for dining, merch, higher guest satisfaction, etc.). That would be 14.4 million / day, an increase of almost $2M per day.

Obviously this is all hypothetical but I think it's a core motivation behind G+ and ILL$. Sure, attendance may drop (but it won't crater) and they think they can significantly increase guest yield with fewer people in the parks. (Chapek has said as much).

 

[Disstevefan1]

That's if the 2019 mobs come. It's not like the parks will ever be empty but again, the goal is growth; not stagnation. If they even lose 1% they will revert decisions. The bubble bursting is an exaggeration for sure but the slightest hint of a loss due to price increases, entertainment modifications/terminations, etc. they will pull back.

Everything they do does seem counterintuitive, but it seems to be working.

Just for laughs I looked at the stock price
on Oct. 14th of 2019 the stock price was $130
Today, Oct. 11, 2021 it closed at $173

I am not an investor and I do not know how fast a "successful" company's stock price should grow, but this seems good to me coming out of the pandemic (or still during a pandemic) depending on who you talk to.

 

[UNCgolf]

10 Famous Companies That Went Bankrupt or No Longer Exist

Innovation can quickly leave a business behind if it can’t adjust to new ways of operating, or to changing customer demand for new products and services.

learn.stash.com

Strange to have a list like that and include Pets.com but not Sears. At one point Sears was the largest employer in the United States and the largest retailer in the world, and was also responsible for creating still recognizable brands like Craftsman tools and Allstate Insurance.

Even worse, Sears already had much of the infrastructure in place to be what Amazon is now thanks to their old mail order/catalog business. Better/more forward thinking management could have pivoted the business to online sales -- they're one of the biggest examples that shows even gigantic successful corporations can collapse with bad management/a failure to change and adapt.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sears at its height was a much bigger company relatively speaking than Disney is today, although they're certainly different types of companies. Disney could absolutely fail, although it's not likely.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I'm not sure # of guests matter to them anymore. (And here I will challenge @Sirwalterraleigh, who I am *sure* will disagree with me ).

I think Disney no longer cares about attendance numbers.

Look at the occupancy rate. It's at 60% or thereabouts, but they are not offering hotel discounts for the first time that I can remember. Everything is rack rate. Why are they not offering discounts? They easily could and tick up the occupancy a bit.

But let's look at theme parks. Let's say MK has an average of 50k guests per day. And let's say the average spend per guest per day is $250. That's 12.5M per day.

Now let's say that Disney figures that if they cut the number of guests by 20%, the average guest spend will go up to $350/day (shorter lines = more time for dining, merch, higher guest satisfaction, etc.). That would be 14.4 million / day, an increase of almost $2M per day.

Obviously this is all hypothetical but I think it's a core motivation behind G+ and ILL$. Sure, attendance may drop (but it won't crater) and they think they can significantly increase guest yield with fewer people in the parks. (Chapek has said as much).

I agree, it's not about attendance. it's about MONEY. Genie + and Individual Lightning Lane is going to make MONEY!
And a happy side effect, lower attendance should result in a better guest experience.

 

[SteveAZee]

Strange to have a list like that and put on something like Pets.com but not Sears. At one point Sears was the largest employer in the United States and the largest retailer in the world, and was also responsible for creating companies that are still easily recognized like Allstate Insurance.

Yes, true.

I've worked at what was once the premier computer graphics/flight simulation company that went from 1700 employees to 85 before getting sold. I also worked at Tektronix, which went from 25000 employees to selling off parts of itself and what was left was sold off as well. Xerox too, and is worth a fraction of what it once was. Companies come and go and Disney nearly went the same way at one point.

Yes, I've considered that it's just a bad idea for a company to have me as an employee... I've got a bad track record.

I can attest that most of the management, who actually have inside information and understand the workings of their own company, didn't see it coming... there was ignorance and arrogance, along with the belief that they were too big to fail.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yes, true.

I've worked at what was once the premier computer graphics/flight simulation company that went from 1700 employees to 85 before getting sold. I also worked at Tektronix, which went from 25000 employees to selling off parts of itself and what was left was sold off as well. Xerox too, and is worth a fraction of what it once was. Companies come and go and Disney nearly went the same way at one point.

Yes, I've considered that it's just a bad idea for a company to have me as an employee... I've got a bad track record.

I can attest that most of the management, who actually have inside information and understand the workings of their own company, didn't see it coming... there was ignorance and arrogance, along with the belief that they were too big to fail.

Some companies are gone due to lack of vision -
Xerox INVENTED the windows and mouse type of operating system. Their management said, "We don't need this, we got copiers"
Kodak INVENTED the digital camera. Their management said, "We don't need this, we have film"
Blockbuster could have purchased NETFLIX, they didn't.

TWDC could have purchased Pixar for a fraction what they eventually paid many years later; the first time around the thought they didn't need it, they had traditional animation.

Since then, we have seen TWDC grow into a massive, diverse company. TWDC can lose millions on a movie and just write it off as cost of doing business:
John Carter lost $200 million, I thought it was more like $600 million (I liked the movie, BTW)
The Lone Ranger lost $200 million
Tomorrowland lost $120 million
Mars Need Moms lost $110 million

And there are more examples.
The point is, it does not matter. TWDC is large enough to absorb losses and keep moving forward.

 

[homerdance]

Everest is not one of "The Mountains" and Space is a placeholder until Tron opens. It'll be IAS for a few months.

TRON isn’t opening in a “few” months.
You said they run everything on the ILL list full out from open to close, they don’t. Own your misnomer and move on.

 

[Patcheslee]

Everything they do does seem counterintuitive, but it seems to be working.

Just for laughs I looked at the stock price
on Oct. 14th of 2019 the stock price was $130
Today, Oct. 11, 2021 it closed at $173

I am not an investor and I do not know how fast a "successful" company's stock price should grow, but this seems good to me coming out of the pandemic (or still during a pandemic) depending on who you talk to.

The only stock I'm use to knowing is CMI same dates $163.73 to $232.34 today. So it's seen similar gains.

 

[SteveAZee]

Some companies are gone due to lack of vision -
Xerox INVENTED the windows and mouse type of operating system. Their management said, "We don't need this, we got copiers"
Kodak INVENTED the digital camera. Their management said, "We don't need this, we have film"
Blockbuster could have purchased NETFLIX, they didn't.

TWDC could have purchased Pixar for a fraction what they eventually paid many years later; the first time around the thought they didn't need it, they had traditional animation.

Since then, we have seen TWDC grow into a massive, diverse company. TWDC can lose millions on a movie and just write it off as cost of doing business:
John Carter lost $200 million, I thought it was more like $600 million (I liked the movie, BTW)
The Lone Ranger lost $200 million
Tomorrowland lost $120 million
Mars Need Moms lost $110 million

And there are more examples.
The point is, it does not matter. TWDC is large enough to absorb losses and keep moving forward.

No company has a clear and simple path to success, and most companies with any longevity have stumbled... some fatally, some not. Microsoft has lost untold billions. The point is... all the companies that failed didn't believe they could fail. They made decisions that they believed would lead to future success, and they ended up making the wrong bet. My only point, which is counter to your point, is that ANY company can fail. None are too big or too smart or too embedded in the Zeitgeist to fail. Just because Disney hasn't YET made its fatal mistake(s) doesn't mean it won't. I have no idea what it would be, or when it will happen... can't even guarantee it will happen, but to suggest with certainty that it can't possibly happen... I've got a bridge to sell... cheap.

 

[flynnibus]

TWDC will never be on the list.... I do miss Radio Shack's walls of electronics components (resistors, capacitors, transistors)..

More likely in the future would be a breakup of the company into separate units that would sold off, possibly struggle and fold. A company the size of TWDC doesn't go up in one flash because of it's diversity, but it will break up like a glacier as it breaks into chunks and each no longer has the critical mass to support itself.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure # of guests matter to them anymore. (And here I will challenge @Sirwalterraleigh, who I am *sure* will disagree with me ).

I think Disney no longer cares about attendance numbers.

Look at the occupancy rate. It's at 60% or thereabouts, but they are not offering hotel discounts for the first time that I can remember. Everything is rack rate. Why are they not offering discounts? They easily could and tick up the occupancy a bit.

But let's look at theme parks. Let's say MK has an average of 50k guests per day. And let's say the average spend per guest per day is $250. That's 12.5M per day.

Now let's say that Disney figures that if they cut the number of guests by 20%, the average guest spend will go up to $350/day (shorter lines = more time for dining, merch, higher guest satisfaction, etc.). That would be 14.4 million / day, an increase of almost $2M per day.

Obviously this is all hypothetical but I think it's a core motivation behind G+ and ILL$. Sure, attendance may drop (but it won't crater) and they think they can significantly increase guest yield with fewer people in the parks. (Chapek has said as much).

They have one or two more quarters of free pass/cover…then it gets real.

Wall Street will demand maximum ROI…so all these those things will matter.

 

[Cousin Huet]

Congratulations Disney, you just raised your ticket prices without actually raising your ticket prices.

Also, now they have another thing they can raise prices on. Yearly we can get a price bump on tix, hotel rooms, food, merch and now fast passes. Not to mention the stuff they just straight cut from the experience like Magical Ea press, magic bands and a plethora of other stuff over the years. My trip in 2007 where I spared no expense and did their top tier package is the same prices as doing a bargain trip today. I can’t imagine how my parents feel having stayed at Contemporary (main tower) for $64.99 a night in 1977. It just seems to be increasing so rapidly anymore.

 

[Cousin Huet]

We will be there when this starts and I am so excited to attempt to use it day 1 while Vloggers are in there crashing it for a video. There should be zero issues! lol

I should be able to give a detailed report of the first three days of this thing once back. I plan to fully use all the new options, 30min early, 2 hours late in the MK on the 20th and all the Genie+ stuff. Should be interesting!

 

[Patcheslee]

Also, now they have another thing they can raise prices on. Yearly we can get a price bump on tix, hotel rooms, food, merch and now fast passes. Not to mention the stuff they just straight cut from the experience like Magical Ea press, magic bands and a plethora of other stuff over the years. My trip in 2007 where I spared no expense and did their top tier package is the same prices as doing a bargain trip today. I can’t imagine how my parents feel having stayed at Contemporary (main tower) for $64.99 a night in 1977. It just seems to be increasing so rapidly anymore.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Genie+ go to flex pricing like tickets at some point.

 

[bruin086]

Will genie+ actually cost $15 per day or will there be fees and taxes tacked on?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We will be there when this starts and I am so excited to attempt to use it day 1 while Vloggers are in there crashing it for a video. There should be zero issues! lol

I should be able to give a detailed report of the first three days of this thing once back. I plan to fully use all the new options, 30min early, 2 hours late in the MK on the 20th and all the Genie+ stuff. Should be interesting!

There is ZERO reason to pay for this as of now.

 

[Disstevefan1]

More likely in the future would be a breakup of the company into separate units that would sold off, possibly struggle and fold. A company the size of TWDC doesn't go up in one flash because of it's diversity, but it will break up like a glacier as it breaks into chunks and each no longer has the critical mass to support itself.

We will have to agree to disagree. You feel strongly TWDC will be broken up and it’s parts struggle to survive and I feel strongly (at least in my lifetime) TWDC will continue to “live long and prosper”, ( opps, wrong franchise )

I say in my lifetime because we all agree, nothing is forever, Walt died, I will die, yes, someday TWDC will be no more, the sun will eventually die, taking the earth with it..

 

[Disstevefan1]

No company has a clear and simple path to success, and most companies with any longevity have stumbled... some fatally, some not. Microsoft has lost untold billions. The point is... all the companies that failed didn't believe they could fail. They made decisions that they believed would lead to future success, and they ended up making the wrong bet. My only point, which is counter to your point, is that ANY company can fail. None are too big or too smart or too embedded in the Zeitgeist to fail. Just because Disney hasn't YET made its fatal mistake(s) doesn't mean it won't. I have no idea what it would be, or when it will happen... can't even guarantee it will happen, but to suggest with certainty that it can't possibly happen... I've got a bridge to sell... cheap.

Totally agree, nothing is forever. TWDC is diverse, it will turn 100 in 2023 I think its got at least 50 more years after that, probably more. I will not be here to confirm that, that I am certain.

I say for now lets continue to have fun complaining about the company and not call it dead yet.