Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

nickys

Premium Member
2. Park Pass is not advertised the way FastPass+ was. A lot of people won't do it just because they don't know it exists.
On the U.K. site at least, if you go to the Disney website and look at tickets there’s a big bold warning that you must have tickets AND a park reservation to enter a park.

I don’t see how you could actually buy tickets and not be aware of park reservations.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
You're missing my point.

I don't care if Chapek leaves Park Pass turned on. I'm not going to use it. There's absolutely zero reason for me to book my reservation 30, 60, or any number of days in advance. With FastPass+, I had a reason to tell them my park plans 60 days out. When parks were filling to the COVID-limited capacity, I had a reason to tell them my park plans as far out as possible. With neither of those things, I'll book my park pass the day before.
Ok...

But, there will be peak times that APers will find themselves locked out of, which will encourage them to always grab a Park Pass as far in advance as they can.

I guess you don't ever plan to go at a peak time?
 

nickys

Premium Member
Park Pass is forever. So says Chapek and our insiders.

Now, for most days post-pandemic, there will be availability at all the parks and it'll be easy to switch them around last minute. But, there will be peak times that APers will find themselves locked out of, which will encourage them to always grab a Park Pass as far in advance as they can. Not to mention all those black-out days when WDW knows what groups of APers will not be showing up.

Not to mention that all the day-ticket holders now have to declare when they plan to use those tickets. There are no more anytime day-tickets.
Can you switch? I thought you have to cancel and rebook. In which case most people will likely stick with what they booked when they bought their tickets.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
I guess you don't ever plan to go at a peak time?
I don't have an AP. Also, the "peak times" when APs would be blocked due to Park Pass inventory are already blocked by the AP calendar blockout dates, except for the highest tier AP holders, of which their are very few. Finally, if you've been watching what happens with AP inventory. It fills up, and then more inventory is released as dates approach, and they end up with plenty of capacity to get in.
 

nickys

Premium Member
What about manipulation of wait times?

There was a tweet yesterday showing that the actual wait times were about 60% of Disney’s posted wait times. This isn’t unusual, as Touring Plans will happily attest to.

If Disney’s times are consistently much higher than the actual wait times, couldn’t that be construed as enticing people to buy Genie+? Not sure about the line between that and fraud, it depends on how you define fraud I guess.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
What about manipulation of wait times?

There was a tweet yesterday showing that the actual wait times were about 60% of Disney’s posted wait times. This isn’t unusual, as Touring Plans will happily attest to.

If Disney’s times are consistently much higher than the actual wait times, couldn’t that be construed as enticing people to buy Genie+? Not sure about the line between that and fraud, it depends on how you define fraud I guess.
Disney does not* deliberately manipulate wait times, they're just bad at reporting them.


*Except late at night, when they very likely inflate wait times to try and dissuade people from entering the line right as the park is closing.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Can you switch? I thought you have to cancel and rebook. In which case most people will likely stick with what they booked when they bought their tickets.
Yeah, that's what I meant by switching.

If it's not a peak time, shouldn't be a problem. You can see if the park you want to switch to (cancel, then re-reserve) is available.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
But there's not a monetary component to it now. There's no consumer issue for them manipulating lines because there is no product by which those line manipulations would matter.

But with Genie+, it becomes a consumer issue. If they manipulate lines to goose G+ or ILL$ sales, that borders on fraud, and then it becomes a consumer protection issue subject to oversight by the FTC.

tl; dr; of course they always manipulated lines, but it didn't matter from a consumer protection standpoint. It does now with G+.

The problem is you all are talking too broad so then everyone is right... and people talk past each other.

'manipulate lines' is too broad. Really there are two separate topics - Attraction Capacity and Posted Attraction Wait times.

What could get Disney in trouble is not 'running lines longer than they need to be' but rather 'false advertising' with regards to waits in an effort to sell line-skips that are unneeded.

Disney is under NO obligation to run attractions as most efficiently as possible. As a broad generic example, If BTMRR can run 6 trains and Disney choses to only run 4.. there is NOTHING anyone can say about it. Heck, they can run 2. The only party that has any say in how Disney runs their attractions for capacity is Disney. There is nothing FTC or anyone else can say about that.. The motivation is only on Disney in terms of managing their customer experience.

And as mentioned before, Disney has 'tolerances' it normally considers acceptable waits - It does not run all attractions at full capacity at all times. This is normal operating procedure. They would scale up when demand exceeds thresholds. So maybe they run 3 trains as a minimum baseline... and will not run more even though they can... unless the avg wait starts exceeding 75mins. Then decide if they will add capacity to get things back under the target.

All of the above is industry norm and happens all the time. So if the wait for BTMRR is higher than it *COULD* be... no one can say squat about it except to complain to Disney as a customer from a experience/satisfaction angle.

Second, there is the topic of advertised wait times. This is an area that we already know is a published time that is not strictly accurate. The advertised time is both an estimate based on current conditions, and patterns. There is also signs that Disney use wait times to influence customer behavior and are not always STRICTLY based on current demand.

These wait times today are provided as a CONVENIENCE to guests - and Disney can defend its lack of accuracy on many fronts. And no one can say much about it.. they offer it as a convenience and people would have a hard time arguing consumers are being harmed by Disney over-estimating waits.

Where things change, and there is a potential argument, is now advertised wait times could be used to sell ticket opens like Genie+/IAS. So the argument is Disney can inflate wait times (either purely in advertised times, or through reduced capacity) as a means to push customers to buy passes.

Let's be clear...
Actual waits being long, even tho they COULD be shorter, and selling passes based on that... No one can say squat about it! There is no regulation that says "you must run rides as hard as you can!". And Six Flags/Cedar Fair would have been crushed ages ago if that were the case ;)

But there would be potentially more scrutiny about how Disney ADVERTISES wait times. Because now we are in the space where one could make the complaint Disney is falsely representing the value/gain their products offer. So if Disney were to say, systematically over estimate their wait times in an effort to make their line-skip products more attractive - This is where there is room for customer complaints and scrutiny from consumer protection laws. It's not too far from an example of selling a 5lb bag of potatoes that really is only 3lbs - it's misrepresentation.

But Disney's defense would be to argue the poor estimations come from other legitimate reasons, not from motivations to defraud customers. Maybe ultimately after some regulator scrutiny there would be some codified expectation of what wait times estimates should be, but there is a ton of room for Disney here to justify their current behavior. Monetizing line-skips increases scrutiny, but the behaviors that are in play today are not suddenly taboo. Disney would just have to be able to defend their estimates to show they aren't doing it to intentionally manipulate buying patterns.

So the only legitimate area of concern is how wait times are shown vs actual wait times... NOT that actual wait times are long. No one can force Disney (or another operator) to run attractions at higher capacities even if they sell line skips.
 
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mikejs78

Premium Member
The problem is you all are talking too broad so then everyone is right... and people talk past each other.

'manipulate lines' is too broad. Really there are two separate topics - Attraction Capacity and Attraction Wait times.

What could get Disney in trouble is not 'running lines longer than they need to be' but rather 'false advertising' with regards to waits in an effort to sell line-skips that are unneeded.

Disney is under NO obligation to run attractions as most efficiently as possible. As a broad generic example, If BTMRR can run 6 trains and Disney choses to only run 4.. there is NOTHING anyone can say about it. Heck, they can run 2. The only party that has any say in how Disney runs their attractions for capacity is Disney. There is nothing FTC or anyone else can say about that.. The motivation is only on Disney in terms of managing their customer experience.

And as mentioned before, Disney has 'tolerances' it normally considers acceptable waits - It does not run all attractions at full capacity at all times. This is normal operating procedure. They would scale up when demand exceeds thresholds. So maybe they run 3 trains as a minimum baseline... and will not run more even though they can... unless the avg wait starts exceeding 75mins. Then decide if they will add capacity to get things back under the target.

All of the above is industry norm and happens all the time. So if the wait for BTMRR is higher than it *COULD* be... no one can say squat about it except to complain to Disney as a customer from a experience/satisfaction angle.

Second, there is the topic of advertised wait times. This is an area that we already know is a published time that is not strictly accurate. The advertised time is both an estimate based on current conditions, and patterns. There is also signs that Disney use wait times to influence customer behavior and are not always STRICTLY based on current demand.

These wait times today are provided as a CONVENIENCE to guests - and Disney can defend its lack of accuracy on many fronts. And no one can say much about it.. they offer it as a convenience and people would have a hard time arguing consumers are being harmed by Disney over-estimating waits.

Where things change, and there is a potential argument, is now advertised wait times could be used to sell ticket opens like Genie+/IAS. So the argument is Disney can inflate wait times (either purely in advertised times, or through reduced capacity) as a means to push customers to buy passes.

Let's be clear...
Actual waits being long, even tho they COULD be shorter, and selling passes based on that... No one can say squat about it! There is no regulation that says "you must run rides as hard as you can!". And Six Flags/Cedar Fair would have been crushed ages ago if that were the case ;)

But there would be potentially more scrutiny about how Disney ADVERTISES wait times. Because now we are in the space where one could make the complaint Disney is falsely representing the value/gain their products offer. So if Disney were to say, systematically over estimate their wait times in an effort to make their line-skip products more attractive - This is where there is room for customer complaints and scrutiny from consumer protection laws. It's not too far from an example of selling a 5lb bag of potatoes that really is only 3lbs - it's misrepresentation.

But Disney's defense would be to argue the poor estimations come from other legitimate reasons, not from motivations to defraud customers. Maybe ultimately after some regulator scrutiny there would be some codified expectation of what wait times estimates should be, but there is a ton of room for Disney here to justify their current behavior. Monetizing line-skips increases scrutiny, but the behaviors that are in play today are not suddenly taboo. Disney would just have to be able to defend their estimates to show they aren't doing it to intentionally manipulate buying patterns.
Good summary - although I think that their ability to justify it might be difficult, we can disagree/debate on that. But your points are generally right and what I was trying to get at - although you did it in a much more detailed way.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Disney does not* deliberately manipulate wait times, they're just bad at reporting them.


*Except late at night, when they very likely inflate wait times to try and dissuade people from entering the line right as the park is closing.

I'm 99.9% sure they deliberately manipulate wait times, but it's not out of malice. It's for guest satisfaction purposes.

Waiting longer than a posted time makes people angry, waiting less than a posted time makes people happy (or at least doesn't make them angry).
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
Not at the IAS attractions, they don't. Those things run full-bore pretty much open to close. We're not talking about running fewer boats in Splash Mountain when it's 60 degrees outside, you're suggesting that they're going to cut back on ride vehicles in things like *Rise of the Resistance.*
Uh, what park have you been visiting?

The mountains are not running full bore during the peripheral park hours. BTMRR, for example, often runs just one side.
 

nickys

Premium Member
I'm 99.9% sure they deliberately manipulate wait times, but it's not out of malice. It's for guest satisfaction purposes.

Waiting longer than a posted time makes people angry, waiting less than a posted time makes people happy (or at least doesn't make them angry).
I agree with your last statement.

But totally disagree with the first one. You don’t add 30, or, 50% to your wait times simply for guest satisfaction purposes.
 

nickys

Premium Member
The problem is you all are talking too broad so then everyone is right... and people talk past each other.

'manipulate lines' is too broad. Really there are two separate topics - Attraction Capacity and Posted Attraction Wait times.

What could get Disney in trouble is not 'running lines longer than they need to be' but rather 'false advertising' with regards to waits in an effort to sell line-skips that are unneeded.

Disney is under NO obligation to run attractions as most efficiently as possible. As a broad generic example, If BTMRR can run 6 trains and Disney choses to only run 4.. there is NOTHING anyone can say about it. Heck, they can run 2. The only party that has any say in how Disney runs their attractions for capacity is Disney. There is nothing FTC or anyone else can say about that.. The motivation is only on Disney in terms of managing their customer experience.

And as mentioned before, Disney has 'tolerances' it normally considers acceptable waits - It does not run all attractions at full capacity at all times. This is normal operating procedure. They would scale up when demand exceeds thresholds. So maybe they run 3 trains as a minimum baseline... and will not run more even though they can... unless the avg wait starts exceeding 75mins. Then decide if they will add capacity to get things back under the target.

All of the above is industry norm and happens all the time. So if the wait for BTMRR is higher than it *COULD* be... no one can say squat about it except to complain to Disney as a customer from a experience/satisfaction angle.

Second, there is the topic of advertised wait times. This is an area that we already know is a published time that is not strictly accurate. The advertised time is both an estimate based on current conditions, and patterns. There is also signs that Disney use wait times to influence customer behavior and are not always STRICTLY based on current demand.

These wait times today are provided as a CONVENIENCE to guests - and Disney can defend its lack of accuracy on many fronts. And no one can say much about it.. they offer it as a convenience and people would have a hard time arguing consumers are being harmed by Disney over-estimating waits.

Where things change, and there is a potential argument, is now advertised wait times could be used to sell ticket opens like Genie+/IAS. So the argument is Disney can inflate wait times (either purely in advertised times, or through reduced capacity) as a means to push customers to buy passes.

Let's be clear...
Actual waits being long, even tho they COULD be shorter, and selling passes based on that... No one can say squat about it! There is no regulation that says "you must run rides as hard as you can!". And Six Flags/Cedar Fair would have been crushed ages ago if that were the case ;)

But there would be potentially more scrutiny about how Disney ADVERTISES wait times. Because now we are in the space where one could make the complaint Disney is falsely representing the value/gain their products offer. So if Disney were to say, systematically over estimate their wait times in an effort to make their line-skip products more attractive - This is where there is room for customer complaints and scrutiny from consumer protection laws. It's not too far from an example of selling a 5lb bag of potatoes that really is only 3lbs - it's misrepresentation.

But Disney's defense would be to argue the poor estimations come from other legitimate reasons, not from motivations to defraud customers. Maybe ultimately after some regulator scrutiny there would be some codified expectation of what wait times estimates should be, but there is a ton of room for Disney here to justify their current behavior. Monetizing line-skips increases scrutiny, but the behaviors that are in play today are not suddenly taboo. Disney would just have to be able to defend their estimates to show they aren't doing it to intentionally manipulate buying patterns.

So the only legitimate area of concern is how wait times are shown vs actual wait times... NOT that actual wait times are long. No one can force Disney (or another operator) to run attractions at higher capacities even if they sell line skips.
Good explanation here, and it’s the posted wait times that I was thinking about when considering manipulation of wait times.

As to Disney trying to argue their poor estimation of wait times is because of legitimate reasons, then they just need to actually measure the wait times! It shouldn’t be hard. In fact I’m sure they do measure them, and then inflate them. Either that or they’re incredibly bad at doing what Touring Plans do very well.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
But there's not a monetary component to [attraction wait times] now.
huh?
Disney is a business, and everything they do is balance between costs, providing a product, and earning money.

There has always been a monetary component to wait times. When WDW expects to be busy they add park hours, entertainment in the form of more parades/shows and the prices of admission/hotels/food to keep their customers satisfied, and to sway them to visit during slower times of the year.
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
I doubt they'll switch to Slinky... They would have gone with it already if they thought it made sense. In fact that's what initially most insiders (except @marni1971 ) were saying, and even @wdwmagic was saying Slinky a week ago. They must have changed last minute for some reason.

Actually, come to think of it, I think @marni1971 predicted every single attraction for ILL$.
Since Rise of the Resistance has opened its Standby queue, Slinky Dog Dash has regularly been ahead of it for longest wait times. The reason to not choose Slinky Dog Dash is that Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway can accommodate more guests and a wider variety of guests. In a park where only two rides lack height requirements, I suspect the choice was let's force the issue and further gouge guest's wallets.
 
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RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
i’m in the minority. I’m well aware. But it doesn’t hurt to come her and try to show others the light.

visit Tokyo. You’ll NEVER look at Orlando the same again.

And before you say that costs a ton more…. It doesn’t. Not with less effort than it takes to schedule and pay for a WDW trip.

the reality is…. For a vast majority of Disney fans, they believe the swamps are the only place they can go to or afford.
If you're staying on property at a deluxe or even moderate resort in Florida. You can have a similarly priced vacation in Tokyo staying at a Good neighbor resort that's on the monorail line.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
You're missing my point.

I don't care if Chapek leaves Park Pass turned on. I'm not going to use it. There's absolutely zero reason for me to book my reservation 30, 60, or any number of days in advance. With FastPass+, I had a reason to tell them my park plans 60 days out. When parks were filling to the COVID-limited capacity, I had a reason to tell them my park plans as far out as possible. With neither of those things, I'll book my park pass the day before.
What if they limit the amount of reservations?
 

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