Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[JD80]

I wish I had a free pass to sit on Len's data collection team meetings and see the raw data come in. So many interesting variables changing in park ops.

It'll be interesting to see if ADRs increase (shown by ADR availability decreasing) and restaurants become busier because people have "more free time" or at least more control of their day. @lentesta do you do any study on restaurant occupancy? I wonder if you could just walk up to a host stand and ask what the current wait would be for walkins is any way to measure how busy/empty a restaurant is.

If there isn't any significant change, I wonder when we'll see any changes like pre-fixe menu adoptions or better/more enticing "free" dining offers.

 

[JD80]

I am familiar with the old FP free system never used Gene+ so rather than being condescending how about explaining the new paid FP system better yet add you to my ignore list

Well I'm sorry if I offended you, but with the amount of time you spend along with the rest of us on these board, I would have thought you may have read any of the number of articles posted on the front page. Happy to see @TheMaxRebo has helped.

 

[HoustonHorn]

FWIW, here is a snapshot of availability and prices for LLMP and LLSP for the next 9 days. I do not know what return times are available for the LLSP, or which attractions are available for the LLMP, but I found a few things interesting:

- For those booking 7 days out, everything is available
- For those booking 3 days out, 7DMT and RotR are currently unavailable as LLSP
- 7DMT and RotR are each only available for purchase once over the next 7 days, but on different days
- As of 7:15ish today, there were no LLSP available to purchase

		MK	7DMT	TRON	EPCOT	GotG	MGM	RotR	AK	FoP
Th	25-Jul	$29	X	X	$21	X	$26	X	$18	X
F	26-Jul	$27	X	X	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	X
Sa	27-Jul	$25	$11	$20	$18	$15	$22	X	$16	$14
Su	28-Jul	$25	X	$20	$18	$15	$22	X	$16	$14
M	29-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14
Tu	30-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	$14
W	31-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	$14
Th	1-Aug	$27	$11	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14
F	2-Aug	$27	$11	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Saw someone's booking window opened today (so checking in 7 days from now). Tiana's was gone for day 1, for Day 2 only had starting at 8:30pm, 3rd day starting at 2:30pm

So definitely back to FP+ strategy of planning parks with tougher to get LLs for later in your trip

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

I continue to be amazed that things like Spaceship Earth, and Turtle Talk with Crush are getting blasted out so far, along with things like Buzz, the little mermaid ride, etc. Eliminating the character meet & greets was such a poor decision, so many fewer LL selections now for those with height-restricted children, that's got to be part of what's driving this.

 

[Purduevian]

SSE being past 8 pm at 11:30 am seems really terrible. This is. A low crowd day. Availability didn’t go this fast under fastpass day of, I don’t get it.

It's important to remember that whenever you see an availability at X time, every single user is holding 2-3 LLs that are "better" LLs than what is being shown.

I knew day of availability might be tough for booking good ones for you 4th, 5th, etc, but I am a bit surprised by how much things are being taken in the future already

Just looked for two days from now and 7DMT and FoP already gone along with Tiana's, Haunted Mansion, Slinky Dog, and Toy Story Mania

How are you looking at future availability? I would love to see it, but don't currently have a ticket in the window.

I think this is a great list and certainly illustrates that this system like anyone favors some folks and disadvantages others. Some with prefer this, others will be upset. There’s no system that is “good” or “better” than another.

The one group I’m most curious about is the off site but pre planners. Obviously worse off than resort guests, but it will be interesting to see how they do with the tiers in terms of what they can book ahead of time.

The folks who liked to stack for later in the day and go to the parks late are the particularly biggest losers among the “bad for” crowd.

I am currently planning a fall trip, am a planner, and am planning to stay at a DS resort. I'll let you know how it goes. I would love to stay at a Disney moderate instead but +$140 a night per room wasn't worth it to us on this trip even with the LLMP perks. Honestly, I was debating this, but my little test below just proved to me I will be staying offsite.

That was me and that’s what I heard. It’s unfortunately not the case.

Gotta redeem 1 before everything is unlocked.

I wonder if this will be a money saving/power using "hack" people use. For instance, today I could buy AK for $18 and book my family an 8-9pm ITTAB. Then right now as the pass expires (9:01am) it should unlock 3 completely open LL tracks. Switch everything to MK tier 1s without ever setting foot in AK. Meanwhile those that booked MK paid $29 per person are still stuck on 1 tier 1 since the park is opening right now.

I allowed myself 5 refreshes to see what I would book. I got: 9:45am Big thunder (All refreshs gave 9:25-9:45am BTMRR), 2:40pm Tiana's (popped up on the 3rd try), 9:15am space mountain (popped up on the fourth try)

Would you rather pay $29 per person and walk in with 1 tier 1 and 2 tier 2s. or pay $18 a person and walk in with 9:15 Space, 9:45 Big thunder, and 2:40PM Tiana?

 

[GoofGoof]

Thanks for looking out for other posters but I was a beta tester for FP+ and can vouch for the fact that both pre and post GSAT numbers were low. One of the main factors cited was tiering followed by availability.

The fact is no solution is effective when capacity is fundamentally lower than demand, and they stubbornly went down the rabbit hole of yield management rather than increasing resources. The current iteration is doomed in much the same manner previous versions were.

For MLL to have the same exact capacity issues as FP+ you are assuming 100% of guests buy in to MLL since 100% of guests had access to FP+. Maybe that will eventually be the case, but Genie+ was about 1/3 of guests per Disney’s own reporting and I’ve seen some online stuff claiming it was closer to 50%. Simple example:

1. 100 guests with 100% usage of FP+ so 300 advance reservations
2. 100 guests with 33% usage of MLL so 99 advance reservations

So if the hypothetical overall ride capacity is 250 open slots in a day for “good attractions” then under FP+ some combination of guests were holding FP reservations for something like Muppets or Philharmagic. Capacity was too little to meet demand. Flash forward to MLL and there is more than enough capacity for all 33 guests who bought in to book 3 useful reservations (99 reservations) and still have 151 reservations left for #4, #5 and so on. I don’t know the true math and this is obviously and over simplified example but as long as in this example the hypothetical overall ride capacity exceeds the number of advance reservations purchased there will be extra capacity left over. If we eventually get to 70-80-90% of guests using the system then we may get closer to how FP+ worked or didn’t work well.

This also does not take into account the changes to DAS which have supposedly reduced the number of DAS users in the lightning lanes. I have no way to quantify the impact but it’s been reported to be something greater than zero. Since FP+ Disney has added some new attractions but those have been offset by moving 5 rides to ILL so a wash on capacity in system. Overall, if the DAS changes were successful in curbing abuse there actually should be some increase in available capacity.

 

[GoofGoof]

I disagree this has much to do with guest satisfaction being higher. IMO this change was mainly for a perk to get guests to fill rooms they are struggling to fill.

This is one benefit to Disney but I think the main goal is to sell more units overall. If they were averaging 1/3 of guests buying in they want that to be higher and got feedback on what guests liked and didn’t like and feel this system will sell better. I think the dining issue is also a significant factor. We’ve seen reports they were concerned with ADRs being impacted due to people not knowing when their LL return times would be.

I can’t disagree that this change wasn’t just for guest satisfaction. The primary goal for Disney was an increase in profitability (more hotel room sales, increase in ADRs and increase in sales of MLL).

 

[GoofGoof]

FWIW, here is a snapshot of availability and prices for LLMP and LLSP for the next 9 days. I do not know what return times are available for the LLSP, or which attractions are available for the LLMP, but I found a few things interesting:

- For those booking 7 days out, everything is available
- For those booking 3 days out, 7DMT and RotR are currently unavailable as LLSP
- 7DMT and RotR are each only available for purchase once over the next 7 days, but on different days
- As of 7:15ish today, there were no LLSP available to purchase

		MK	7DMT	TRON	EPCOT	GotG	MGM	RotR	AK	FoP
Th	25-Jul	$29	X	X	$21	X	$26	X	$18	X
F	26-Jul	$27	X	X	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	X
Sa	27-Jul	$25	$11	$20	$18	$15	$22	X	$16	$14
Su	28-Jul	$25	X	$20	$18	$15	$22	X	$16	$14
M	29-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14
Tu	30-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	$14
W	31-Jul	$27	X	$20	$19	$15	$24	X	$17	$14
Th	1-Aug	$27	$11	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14
F	2-Aug	$27	$11	$20	$19	$15	$24	$22	$17	$14

Interesting that Tron and GotG are the least sold out being the newest rides but I guess people want to roll the dice on getting a free VQ.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

How are you looking at future availability? I would love to see it, but don't currently have a ticket in the window.

It's only b/c there is someone with a value ticket in my party that I am able to see the LLMP out several days (it is an AP so only able to go out a handful of days)

The LLSP are in the first selection screen so you would be able to see the status of those though - just go to the "purchase" LL and pick a date and then you can see if able to select a LLSP ,(along with picking your park for LLMP - just after this screen you need to pick someone in your part with a valid ticket)

Here is from looking at Saturday - only LLSP gone so far is Rise

 

[TheMaxRebo]

For MLL to have the same exact capacity issues as FP+ you are assuming 100% of guests buy in to MLL since 100% of guests had access to FP+. Maybe that will eventually be the case, but Genie+ was about 1/3 of guests per Disney’s own reporting and I’ve seen some online stuff claiming it was closer to 50%. Simple example:

1. 100 guests with 100% usage of FP+ so 300 advance reservations
2. 100 guests with 33% usage of MLL so 99 advance reservations

So if the hypothetical overall ride capacity is 250 open slots in a day for “good attractions” then under FP+ some combination of guests were holding FP reservations for something like Muppets or Philharmagic. Capacity was too little to meet demand. Flash forward to MLL and there is more than enough capacity for all 33 guests who bought in to book 3 useful reservations (99 reservations) and still have 151 reservations left for #4, #5 and so on. I don’t know the true math and this is obviously and over simplified example but as long as in this example the hypothetical overall ride capacity exceeds the number of advance reservations purchased there will be extra capacity left over. If we eventually get to 70-80-90% of guests using the system then we may get closer to how FP+ worked or didn’t work well.

This also does not take into account the changes to DAS which have supposedly reduced the number of DAS users in the lightning lanes. I have no way to quantify the impact but it’s been reported to be something greater than zero. Since FP+ Disney has added some new attractions but those have been offset by moving 5 rides to ILL so a wash on capacity in system. Overall, if the DAS changes were successful in curbing abuse there actually should be some increase in available capacity.

You did lose capacity vs FP+ with the pulling out of the LLSP and also taking out character meets, so less people trying but less supply as well

But I do think your point still holds which makes me think they are holding a decent amount of capacity for "day of" otherwise don't see how advance bookings for things like TDM or HM (which have high capacity) would already be gone multiple days in advance

 

[Dranth]

I think this is a great list and certainly illustrates that this system like anyone favors some folks and disadvantages others. Some with prefer this, others will be upset. There’s no system that is “good” or “better” than another.

I would push back on this a bit.

Yes, we all will have a system we prefer but the system that punishes all groups the least would be best from an overall park goer perceptive. This system, just like FP+ is very punishing to anyone who doesn't do longer vacations and tour the parks a particular way compared to G+ which was much more "fair" for everyone.

Just look at all the already sold out ILL that most guests will now not even have a chance at because they couldn't come for and/or afford a week plus.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The higher the single and multi LL prices get, the more attractive the Universal Express pass looks even if you are not getting it free by staying in deluxe resorts and have to pay!

Express pass is really expensive, but the freedom to just hop into any express pass line at any time is…… priceless.

I haven’t looked recently, but is it still true some attractions are not included in express pass? That’s my big gripe with express pass.

 

[pdude81]

Just based on the way those questions were asked, it's a safe assumption that yesterday's switch to pre-booking was almost certainly in response to survey answers along the lines of "I'm not booking sit-down meals this trip because I don't know my Genie+ return times in advance for my most important rides."

I've heard this sentiment expressed by posters on this site many times. What I truly don't understand is why people didn't just book the meals they wanted anyway. Essentially a receipt from a table service restaurant would turn your LL into an anytime pass for that ride. It was advantageous in some respects to book a G+ lightning lane that conflicted with your meal so that you could let it expire and hold for later.

 

[Purduevian]

It's only b/c there is someone with a value ticket in my party that I am able to see the LLMP out several days (it is an AP so only able to go out a handful of days)

The LLSP are in the first selection screen so you would be able to see the status of those though - just go to the "purchase" LL and pick a date and then you can see if able to select a LLSP ,(along with picking your park for LLMP - just after this screen you need to pick someone in your part with a valid ticket)

Here is from looking at Saturday - only LLSP gone so far is Rise

Thanks, I'm guessing soon a site like touring plans or thrill data will soon figure out how to scrap availability for everything for the next 21 days.

 

[GoofGoof]

You did lose capacity vs FP+ with the pulling out of the LLSP and also taking out character meets, so less people trying but less supply as well

But I do think your point still holds which makes me think they are holding a decent amount of capacity for "day of" otherwise don't see how advance bookings for things like TDM or HM (which have high capacity) would already be gone multiple days in advance

There are 5 ILL attractions. Since the parks closed for Covid (the end of FP+) they added Tron, GotG and Rat ride. Just before the Covid shut down Mickey train opened and Dec 2019 RotR opened. So comparing FP+ in November 2019 to MLL it’s the same number of rides in the system. If you go back to before August 2019 when smugglers run opened it’s +1 for MLL. They just took FoP and Mine train out of MLL but added in Mickey Train, rat ride and smugglers run. The character meets are a reduction in capacity, but lower capacity so I’m calling it a wash vs FP+ pre galaxy’s edge.

I think we need to wait a week or 2 to see better what is available. Disney has a history of technical difficulties with new products so I would not be surprised at all if they held back a lot for launch. It’s going to be hard to judge entirely because in about 3-4 weeks southern schools go back and we move into lower crowd times so it may actually look like capacity got better.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I continue to be amazed that things like Spaceship Earth, and Turtle Talk with Crush are getting blasted out so far, along with things like Buzz, the little mermaid ride, etc. Eliminating the character meet & greets was such a poor decision, so many fewer LL selections now for those with height-restricted children, that's got to be part of what's driving this.

lack of attractions will continue to bite disney for the next 3-5 years (if not more) because of bad decisions on their part

I would have almost rather the MP (LL), SP (ILL) be all combined and just raise the price of it all and include character meet and greets, etc as well. The more options to pick from, the more availability we'd see in theory.

wait until they take down Dinoland and It's a Bugs Life at AK too... not to mention any attraction outages throughout the day bottlenecking others.

 

[easyrowrdw]

You did lose capacity vs FP+ with the pulling out of the LLSP and also taking out character meets, so less people trying but less supply as well

But I do think your point still holds which makes me think they are holding a decent amount of capacity for "day of" otherwise don't see how advance bookings for things like TDM or HM (which have high capacity) would already be gone multiple days in advance

Which is kinda crappy for people who are paying more for the Disney hotel. You get an advantage but then Disney undercuts it by holding back inventory. So then you’re back to the refresh refresh refresh game in the park trying to get the good rides.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The bad thing about this change is that they really took the worst attributes of FastPass+ and implemented them here.

It didn't really matter in the FastPass+ days because it was free.

Now folks will be paying to be disappointed.

 

[Dranth]

I've heard this sentiment expressed by posters on this site many times. What I truly don't understand is why people didn't just book the meals they wanted anyway. Essentially a receipt from a table service restaurant would turn your LL into an anytime pass for that ride. It was advantageous in some respects to book a G+ lightning lane that conflicted with your meal so that you could let it expire and hold for later.

Same.

Most of the time as soon as we got a selection that conflicted with other plans, we would just move it. If that wasn't possible, we would drop it for something else so someone else could get it. Often it would overlap just enough that we could sneak it in right before or right after eating but if that many people told Disney they weren't doing dinning because they were worried about possible conflicts then I guess we were in the minority.