Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[MouseEarsMom33]

I think this may blow up in their face, rather spectacularly. Genie has been $40 before right? Family of 4 $120 a day people may cringe and press the button, but now you buy your 5 days all at once? That’s $600, that’s going to make a lot more eyes pop (human psychology and why everyone is moving to nickel and diming/subscription models) they may see less people booking this. I’m most interested to see the availability, if you can get 7-10 hits out of this I may start buying it. We’ll see how popular it is, the less people who buy, the more hits you get. Allowing rerides and/or ending ILLs would have made it much more palatable.

Actually, I think it could go the opposite way (more people buying more Lightning Lanes). My family lives out of state, so when we go, we do pay extra for things to help maximize our time vs. waiting in line. When I pay day by day, I will buy Genie+ in the beginning of the trip. But as the trip goes on, we often end up riding most of the rides through Genie+ or standby early in our trip, so we don't really need or purchase Genie+ for all the days.

Now, that I need to plan in advance and can guarantee that I can reserve rides we want and at times we want them, we are more likely to purchase more Lightning Lane days so we don't lose the opportunity later. When planning any WDW trip, my husband and I usually plan for more and then cut back our plans once we are a few days into the trip. (Don't mean to do this, we just think we can accomplish more than we actually can before getting tired.) This will likely lead to us overestimating how many days we need Lightning Lane. I can see other people overbuying this too.

 

[JD80]

You're forgetting the physiological impact of 'I paid a lot for this add-on...' - you're not going to have people just glossing over using it... especially when standby is being pummeled by the LL like it is compared to what happened in the FP+ days.

The phycological impact is lessened because you made that decision 7+ days ago. You're not going to get a park full of power users all of the sudden.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

…I think you need to prepare yourself for some bad news.

This is fundamentally a numbers problem. No booking system can overcome that.

People have managed to convince themselves that pre-booking at the same price will fix it?

The problem is both of the last two systems failed with those characteristics.

Now slapping them together is gonna work?

All depends on how many use it.

I think Disney projected they had enough capacity to meet Genie demand, then they realized DAS cut into that so much they could never fully implement it, now that they think they have DAS under control they think they have the capacity to meet demand.

If the 10-30% using DAS are replaced by 10-30% using LL it’ll be a wash on the standby line, my guess is fewer people will pay to use LL than were using DAS for free but only time will tell.

 

[GoofGoof]

Think about it... why would they design a system they think would be bought LESS than G+ has been?

Again... this is not an exclusive/premium type offer like Express Pass. This is aiming mass adoption.

I’m not saying it will or won’t end up being more or less. I tend to agree it will be more used than genie plus classic was but I still think far, far less than FP+ which was free to every single guest. With FP+ even if someone made reservations the day of arrival and got Tea Cups, Laugh Floor and Philharmagic they still took them. I can’t image some now paying $20-$30 for that now. The educated regulars will mostly use it but not everyone will.

 

[JD80]

Actually, I think it could go the opposite way (more people buying more Lightning Lanes). My family lives out of state, so when we go, we do pay extra for things to help maximize our time vs. waiting in line. When I pay day by day, I will buy Genie+ in the beginning of the trip. But as the trip goes on, we often end up riding most of the rides through Genie+ or standby early in our trip, so we don't really need or purchase Genie+ for all the days.

Now, that I need to plan in advance and can guarantee that I can reserve rides we want and at times we want them, we are more likely to purchase more Lightning Lane days so we don't lose the opportunity later. When planning any WDW trip, my husband and I usually plan for more and then cut back our plans once we are a few days into the trip. (Don't mean to do this, we just think we can accomplish more than we actually can before getting tired.) This will likely lead to us overestimating how many days we need Lightning Lane. I can see other people overbuying this too.

It's possible about over buying. But you also might get people not wanting to drop $700-$1000 7 days before their trip for their whole family and buy less.

 

[JD80]

I can’t image some now paying $20-$30 for that now. The educated regulars will mostly use it but not everyone will.

I don't think people will either, which should be interesting how disney does the pools and when. Because you will see your options before purchasing. So if there isn't much left in "inventory" at time of purchase, Disney won't get the sale.

 

[ConfettiCupcake]

They need people who don’t know what they’re doing that book 3 things that barely need a LL and are satisfied and go about their day. That contingent allows power users to do what they do.

I’m sure there are people now who book Genie+ and don’t bother to try to get what most of us here would consider good value out of it. I don’t think a paywall means everybody will be educated and using it to the fullest.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’m not saying it will or won’t end up being more or less. I tend to agree it will be more used than genie plus classic was but I still think far, far less than FP+ which was free to every single guest. With FP+ even if someone made reservations the day of arrival and got Tea Cups, Laugh Floor and Philharmagic they still took them. I can’t image some now paying $20-$30 for that now. The educated regulars will mostly use it but not everyone will.

This is my guess also, more will use this than used Genie but it’ll be far less than the number that used FP. Without DAS the overall affect will still be fewer people in the LL lines.

 

[JD80]

If you can book more LL's per hour with this, what are the effects of people hopping from one park to the next, especially once Disney starts handing hoppers like candy?

 

[GoofGoof]

…I think you need to prepare yourself for some bad news.

This is fundamentally a numbers problem. No booking system can overcome that.

People have managed to convince themselves that pre-booking at the same price will fix it?

The problem is both of the last two systems failed with those characteristics.

Now slapping them together is gonna work?

All this does is replace booking rides during the day starting at 7am one at a time every 2 hours with pre-booking 3 rides 7 days in advance and then booking more as you use them. It doesn’t solve any capacity problem. It does allow an old man to sleep in an extra hour while on vacation.

The real math is how many more genie+ units are sold a day because pre-booking is popular. If the number sold is dramatically larger then you start to run into the capacity problem. As @flynnibus said, it’s unlikely Disney puts in a system where they make less money so there is very likely going to be an increase in sales which could (should) impact standby waits. I have no idea how effective changes to the disability system will be in preventing abuse so maybe that will offset some of the increase in useage in the lightning lanes. Hard to say what the final impact will be.

 

[Splash4eva]

How is that any different from genie+ for someone that doesn’t plan on visiting the parks until the evening?

Unless im reading this wrong you can only book 3 rides and cant book a 4th until riding one. If im someone who is entering park at say 5pm i can have 5 rides booked before entering.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All depends on how many use it.

I think Disney projected they had enough capacity to meet Genie demand, then they realized DAS cut into that so much they could never fully implement it, now that they think they have DAS under control they think they have the capacity to meet demand.

If the 10-30% using DAS are replaced by 10-30% using LL it’ll be a wash on the standby line, my guess is fewer people will pay to use LL than were using DAS for free but only time will tell.

That’s where - at least in Orlando - you have to know the beast.

In order to limit it…they will have to jack the price up to a level no one buys it. But that doesn’t work for their cash crunch so it has to sell to anyone who thinks it grants access…which at wdw is damn near everyone.

They never could do what universal does…which is why they never tried it

 

[GoofGoof]

If you can book more LL's per hour with this, what are the effects of people hopping from one park to the next, especially once Disney starts handing hoppers like candy?

At least the 3 pre booked have to be in same park right? Then you can book 4 and 5 and 6 at another park but only after using one in the first park.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unless im reading this wrong you can only book 3 rides and cant book a 4th until riding one. If im someone who is entering park at say 5pm i can have 5 rides booked before entering.

Correct…the time limit block is gone…so you can’t load it like maxpass or genie (to a lesser extent)

If you choose to go late and pay…you are basically resigning yourself to 3.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At least the 3 pre booked have to be in same park right? Then you can book 4 and 5 and 6 at another park but only after using one in the first park.

Think there’ll be alot out there at 10am day of?

 

[GoofGoof]

Think there’ll be alot out there at 10am day of?

No. Nothing good at least not on busy days. You are basically getting 3 somewhat valuable FPs a day booked in advance. I am actually OK with that vs genie+ today.

 

[RSoxNo1]

You mean are they gonna make accommodation for passholders who don’t stay onsite?

Yes

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All this does is replace booking rides during the day starting at 7am one at a time every 2 hours with pre-booking 3 rides 7 days in advance and then booking more as you use them. It doesn’t solve any capacity problem. It does allow an old man to sleep in an extra hour while on vacation.

The real math is how many more genie+ units are sold a day because pre-booking is popular. If the number sold is dramatically larger then you start to run into the capacity problem. As @flynnibus said, it’s unlikely Disney puts in a system where they make less money so there is very likely going to be an increase in sales which could (should) impact standby waits. I have no idea how effective changes to the disability system will be in preventing abuse so maybe that will offset some of the increase in useage in the lightning lanes. Hard to say what the final impact will be.

You actually agreed with me (and a lot of others around here for years)

This doesn’t solve their numbers problem at all.

It’s why it’s getting ridiculous that they keep trying to put new shades of lipstick on it.

It’s just not enough capacity to Maintain any flexibility. Battle lost years ago.

It’s actually getting embarrassing. Everyone knows what the problem is but they can’t do anything. They are bleeding these parks dry. And you don’t want to do that with the lines share.

It’s Bob. This always goes back to it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Unless im reading this wrong you can only book 3 rides and cant book a 4th until riding one. If im someone who is entering park at say 5pm i can have 5 rides booked before entering.

This is absolutely true. It’s likely going to be possible to book more lightning lanes with genie+ today then with the new system for most guests if you know what you are doing.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

No. Nothing good at least not on busy days. You are basically getting 3 somewhat valuable FPs a day booked in advance. I am actually OK with that vs genie+ today.

I’ve mentioned it before but the one time we used Genie+ was at HS and we only got 1 ride with it, horrible experience. At least with this if I go in and what we want isn’t available at times we want we’ll know before buying it.

On paper this is an upgrade to me, whether it’ll work in reality is still a big question mark.