Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[Sirwalterraleigh]

@lentesta

What do you guys make of the growing chorus of them sandbagging the wait times to peddle genie?
They’re growing by the day.

I don’t believe ops conspiracy theories…but I can’t dismiss what makes sense on almost a basic common sense level either.

I was told last fall that advance bookings had hit a wall. Like more than housing crash and perhaps 2002-03 severity.

Nothing seen these last months contradicts that

 

[AshaNeOmah]

Here's Fantasyland at 9:04 a.m. today, (so a few minutes after regular park opening):
View attachment 726211


And here's Main Street, USA at 9:15 a.m. today:
View attachment 726209

The thing that strikes me is the lack of crowds.

Another way of looking at this is with actual crowd levels from our crowd calendar. We use Disney's posted wait times between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., at key attractions, as a proxy for crowds (because wait times are transparent and objective). We convert those wait times to a 1-to-10 scale for easier understanding.

Here are the actual MK crowd levels for this year and past years, from June 1 to June 23:

2023: 5.1 out of 10
2022: 6.0
2021: 1.8
2020: -
2019: 5.7
2018: 7.6
2017: 6.8
2016: 8.9

Excluding the pandemic summer of 2021, this year has the lowest average posted waits at the MK since at least 2016.

The usual caveats apply: Posted wait times aren't especially accurate, capacity has changed over time, etc.

Just spent 6 days in-park, Saturday though Thursday. While it wasn't completely packed, crowds were still heavier than I anticipated after seeing the stories concerning 'lack of demand'. I'd say most days were around a 7 or 7.5, when compared to the 10s of New Year's Eve.

Posted wait times are absolute garbage and shouldn't be used to track any trends. We didn't buy G+ for AK and waited 120 minutes for Kilamanjaro on a 75 minute posted wait.

 

[SamusAranX]

@lentesta

What do you guys make of the growing chorus of them sandbagging the wait times to peddle genie?
They’re growing by the day.

I don’t believe ops conspiracy theories…but I can’t dismiss what makes sense on almost a basic common sense level either.

I was told last fall that advance bookings had hit a wall. Like more than housing crash and perhaps 2002-03 severity.

Nothing seen these last months contradicts that

To your last statement, I will say for whatever reason Hollywood was SLAMMED yesterday. I think it was an outlier. I was rubbing shoulders on sunset.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To your last statement, I will say for whatever reason Hollywood was SLAMMED yesterday. I think it was an outlier. I was rubbing shoulders on sunset.

Yeah…

Well I totally get that. There are still millions of travelers around central Florida now and some days they’re gonna end up being concentrated in one place or another.

But in the aggregate - you see the same reports in town for UOR and WDW…

Some “really crowded today” and more “not really crowded for the WEEK”

Wish we had a scatter plot.

Len reverse engineers crowd from the wait times and that makes sense. It’s the only “math” to go on…

My novice/dumb dumb approach is look for crowds on the concourses and scan the tables in the restaurants when walking by

I was shocked at the low levels over Memorial Day. Floored.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Just spent 6 days in-park, Saturday though Thursday. While it wasn't completely packed, crowds were still heavier than I anticipated after seeing the stories concerning 'lack of demand'. I'd say most days were around a 7 or 7.5, when compared to the 10s of New Year's Eve.

Posted wait times are absolute garbage and shouldn't be used to track any trends. We didn't buy G+ for AK and waited 120 minutes for Kilamanjaro on a 75 minute posted wait.

I am surprised the posted times were that much off in that direction! The posted wait times are usually over estimated! The system must be really broken.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am surprised the posted times were that much off in that direction! The posted wait times are usually over estimated! The system must be really broken.

I think there are “micro rushes” in the park that are really messing with their crowd tracking. That could be the virtual tip board?

For instance…I was in the land and there were maybe 50 humans in there…mid afternoon

And a mob getting into Mexico…20 minutes at frozen and nobody outside Akershus.

Span of about 15-20 minutes

 

[Chi84]

I am surprised the posted times were that much off in that direction! The posted wait times are usually over estimated! The system must be really broken.

Kilimanjaro Safaris is susceptible to being thrown off in that direction. All it takes is a stubborn rhino on the road.

 

[lentesta]

@lentesta

What do you guys make of the growing chorus of them sandbagging the wait times to peddle genie?
They’re growing by the day.

I don’t believe ops conspiracy theories…but I can’t dismiss what makes sense on almost a basic common sense level either.

We’ve been contacted by a bunch of law firms about this.

The last time we checked, around 70% of posted wait times were higher than actuals. Around 25% were too low, and 5% were correct.

IMHO, that’s not enough to convince a court. Disney’s defense would probably be that it’s either impossible or infeasible to be more accurate.

My pet conspiracy theory is that Disney isn’t addressing excessive ride downtime because they’ve done the math and think it’s more profitable to have attractions like Rise be down for two hours every day (which is its actual downtime average in 2022 and 2023). I 100% believe that’s true.

 

[flynnibus]

You didn’t have to decide if you were park hopping. You could only make your initial FPs at one park. And no reason to be a slave to the decision either, you could change your mind at the bus stop if you wanted.

Sure you could also just not go…But if you wanted to actually benefit from the advanced choices… yes you had to stick to it. And making adrs meant knowing which park you Would be in hopping or not). You also decided if you were buying park hoppers ahead as part of your tickets (ignoring the upgrade choice).

It’s not new choices… just how far in advance… and of course charging for it.

 

[Splash4eva]

The travel calendar has shifted for decades…accelerated with weather changes in the last 10-20…

But that…doesn’t cover these pictures or accounts

It’s the prices and they know it.

I agree the prices play into a factor but do you think thats the ultimate reason? Or is it the fact this “vacation” has become somewhat of a complicated one with the average guest (i personally dont think so but plenty i know who go feel that way) add in a stale product shortened hours grumpier cast hotels which are less than desirable the list goes on. Ive learned people dont mind paying as long as the product is worth it

 

[AshaNeOmah]

I am surprised the posted times were that much off in that direction! The posted wait times are usually over estimated! The system must be really broken.

Completely agree, which is why it was so surprising. I've not waited an actual posted wait time in a decade or longer.

I think they're having a very difficult time smoothing out G+ arrivals and it's causing big disruptions in posted wait times.

 

[Splash4eva]

Sure you could also just not go…But if you wanted to actually benefit from the advanced choices… yes you had to stick to it. And making adrs meant knowing which park you Would be in hopping or not). You also decided if you were buying park hoppers ahead as part of your tickets (ignoring the upgrade choice).

It’s not new choices… just how far in advance… and of course charging for it.

Personally of all the things Disney has taken away i feel the pre booking FP was the biggest loss for me. I know i may be in the minority but being able to have 3 rides basically locked on from say 9-11ish was great

 

[nickys]

Sure you could also just not go…But if you wanted to actually benefit from the advanced choices… yes you had to stick to it. And making adrs meant knowing which park you Would be in hopping or not). You also decided if you were buying park hoppers ahead as part of your tickets (ignoring the upgrade choice).

It’s not new choices… just how far in advance… and of course charging for it.

What are you calling “not new choices”? The G+ options?

Because I and others have already outlined why it is new choices, for some guests. Again, if you know what you’re doing in advance then it’s not a problem. If you don’t know what you’re doing later in the day it introduces an extra layer of choices.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I agree the prices play into a factor but do you think thats the ultimate reason? Or is it the fact this “vacation” has become somewhat of a complicated one with the average guest (i personally dont think so but plenty i know who go feel that way) add in a stale product shortened hours grumpier cast hotels which are less than desirable the list goes on. Ive learned people dont mind paying as long as the product is worth it

I think it has gotten more complicated - BUT it always was pretty complicated so I don't think that is it alone ... I think it is that more things have to be done day of/on the fly AND now charging for it. If people pay for things it should reduce stress not add to it

Before you would buy your package and be set with your tickets, resort, and have magical express (now need to decide how to get from airport plus extra 3), and pick your magic bands (now decide if get them or not and if so extra $

You would make you ADRs 180 days out and that would sort of establish which days doing which parks - now you make ADRs but also have to make park reservation so extra step

In the past you made your FP+ 60 (or 30) days out and then that would make a bit of guide or structure for your days and then you were good and would just start your days

Now you do that day of, so uncertainty going into the day and have to decide if get G+ or not, maybe have to try for a VQ which is at same time as s letting your first G+ and don't know exactly what time either will be for and then have to start structuring your day around that.

So leads to more day of/in park project managing vs following at least a partial plan that was established in advance

And in exchange for this added uncertainty you now get to pay for it. .... I think it is that combination that really gets people. At least me. I am ok paying extra if it leads to a clearly better and less stressed day, but that isn't the case

 

[flynnibus]

What are you calling “not new choices”? The G+ options?

Because I and others have already outlined why it is new choices, for some guests. Again, if you know what you’re doing in advance then it’s not a problem. If you don’t know what you’re doing later in the day it introduces an extra layer of choices.

The grievance was you had to know by 7am if you would be using advanced bookings and park hopping for the day. And I pointed out you used to have to make those same choices months in advance….

Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

I actually think this does kinda make sense, although I’m surprised they haven’t raised the price of the multipark version higher than Magic Kingdom? Same as charging more for park hopper? Certainly don’t think cheaper version for the quieter parks is a bad thing but then again our family...

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[nickys]

The grievance was you had to know by 7am if you would be using advanced bookings and park hopping for the day. And I pointed out you used to have to make those same choices months in advance….

Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

I actually think this does kinda make sense, although I’m surprised they haven’t raised the price of the multipark version higher than Magic Kingdom? Same as charging more for park hopper? Certainly don’t think cheaper version for the quieter parks is a bad thing but then again our family...

forums.wdwmagic.com

And I don’t think you did have to know if you’d be park hopping or not. We never know on each day whether we will or not unless there is a particular reason, such as an evening ADR at a park where we don’t start out at.

On almost every day, someone in our family will decide to either return to the room or strike out on their own for the afternoon, sometimes involving hopping. We often make spur of the moment decisions “why don’t we go to ____” during the day or at dinner. It’s rare that everyone does the same thing.

So it didn’t apply then and it doesn’t now for us.

 

[QueenFanUSA]

Yeah…

Well I totally get that. There are still millions of travelers around central Florida now and some days they’re gonna end up being concentrated in one place or another.

But in the aggregate - you see the same reports in town for UOR and WDW…

Some “really crowded today” and more “not really crowded for the WEEK”

Wish we had a scatter plot.

Len reverse engineers crowd from the wait times and that makes sense. It’s the only “math” to go on…

My novice/dumb dumb approach is look for crowds on the concourses and scan the tables in the restaurants when walking by

I was shocked at the low levels over Memorial Day. Floored.

So Universal is also having attendance problems this year(as far as what you are hearing)?

 

[Chi84]

The grievance was you had to know by 7am if you would be using advanced bookings and park hopping for the day. And I pointed out you used to have to make those same choices months in advance….

Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

I actually think this does kinda make sense, although I’m surprised they haven’t raised the price of the multipark version higher than Magic Kingdom? Same as charging more for park hopper? Certainly don’t think cheaper version for the quieter parks is a bad thing but then again our family...

forums.wdwmagic.com

The people who didn't like FP+ tend to exaggerate the amount of planning it involved and the lack of flexibility. The point is that people who did like it were fine with doing it in advance and that it worked well for them. I can't adequately explain how much more we loved it than having to pay a great deal of money ($800 this last trip) to make decisions "day of." FP+ worked for us and the current system does not. You can't explain away other people's experiences - we're not lying or mistaken, we just prefer to do things differently no matter how illogical you may find it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So Universal is also having attendance problems this year(as far as what you are hearing)?

It’s been mentioned a good bit…but I don’t follow that closely

 

[AshaNeOmah]

The people who didn't like FP+ tend to exaggerate the amount of planning it involved and the lack of flexibility. The point is that people who did like it were fine with doing it in advance and that it worked well for them. I can't adequately explain how much more we loved it than having to pay a great deal of money ($800 this last trip) to make decisions "day of." FP+ worked for us and the current system does not. You can't explain away other people's experiences - we're not lying or mistaken, we just prefer to do things differently no matter how illogical you may find it.

The problem with FP+ was a crowd and capacity problem, not a customer problem. The people who knew how to use it mostly loved it.

I know it keeps being said, but that video explains why it had to die when it did. Of course, more capacity could have fixed the problem, but there's not a problem more capacity couldn't fix.