JP Morgan Analysts Think June Opening?

Club Cooloholic

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Crazydisneyfanluke

Crazydisneyfanluke

Well-Known Member
Club Cooloholic said:
www.ocregister.com

Disneyland coronavirus closure could stretch to June with attendance slump through 2021, analysts warn

An analysts report from J.P.Morgan estimates that the shuttering of all 12 Disney resorts around the globe amid the COVID-19 pandemic could cost the Disney Parks, Experiences and Products division …
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com
I think June is overly optimistic, and that timeframe is going to move back again. The slump in attendance though is going to be unavoidable whenever it reopens.
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CA has a very different political environment that will effect the closure of the park. DL and DCA could be closed until late July or August. June for any park is extremely optimistic.
 
T

TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
I think everyone is going to be surprised how quickly they re-open. Just a feeling.
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California has just made it clear there will be no Disneyland until August. I can't imagine, given that Florida is almost harder hit and relies more on travel, that WDW will be any sooner.

www.micechat.com

Disneyland Reopening ‘Unlikely’ Through August as California Rules Out Mass Gatherings

Reopening Disneyland before the fall became “unlikely” as California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that mass gatherings with thousands of people are “not in the cards” through the end of the summer. Disney’s two Anaheim
www.micechat.com www.micechat.com
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
California has just made it clear there will be no Disneyland until August. I can't imagine, given that Florida is almost harder hit and relies more on travel, that WDW will be any sooner.

www.micechat.com

Disneyland Reopening ‘Unlikely’ Through August as California Rules Out Mass Gatherings

Reopening Disneyland before the fall became “unlikely” as California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that mass gatherings with thousands of people are “not in the cards” through the end of the summer. Disney’s two Anaheim
www.micechat.com www.micechat.com
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That article doesn’t specifically mention Disneyland, so Newsom didn’t really make it clear because he actually specifically didn’t specify Disneyland. If they are waiting on a vaccine, it will be another year before re-opening. Not going to happen.

Things change. It’s too early to start talking about closure through August, IMO. It might happen, but why rule it out now? It’s already much better than 6 weeks ago when California said something like over a million deaths in their state or something insane like that.
 
CastAStone

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Some banker working from home in his sprawling connecticut estate knows exactly as much as he can ascertain by having a computer program scan WDWMagic, Micechat and Disboards for him. That is to say, as much as me and less than some of you.
 
T

TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
That article doesn’t specifically mention Disneyland, so Newsom didn’t really make it clear because he actually specifically didn’t specify Disneyland. If they are waiting on a vaccine, it will be another year before re-opening. Not going to happen.

Things change. It’s too early to start talking about closure through August, IMO. It might happen, but why rule it out now? It’s already much better than 6 weeks ago when California said something like over a million deaths in their state or something insane like that.
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It's not about a vaccine (though that's obviously the biggest milestone), it's about being able to get it under control by testing enough people, tracing their contacts and isolating those people to get the virus down to minimal levels. This likely can't be done and the virus under control enough until late summer/fall. It is for this reason anything with crowds of more than a hundred people or so likely won't be allowed until then and DL certainly fits the bill.
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
It's not about a vaccine (though that's obviously the biggest milestone), it's about being able to get it under control by testing enough people, tracing their contacts and isolating those people to get the virus down to minimal levels. This likely can't be done and the virus under control enough until late summer/fall. It is for this reason anything with crowds of more than a hundred people or so likely won't be allowed until then and DL certainly fits the bill.
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Again, that all makes sense but you’re still guessing with predictions going out to August.

There is going to be intense pressure to get people back to work and the economy going every day that goes by.

There is still the possibility of innovation to make gatherings work (maybe mandatory wear a mask) and/or testing symptoms like fever before entering those gatherings.

If you’re throwing out August, you’re still saying people will gather while the virus has no vaccine, which means you’re going to rely on said innovations and procedures which I think can and have to be implemented sooner. Quicker testing is already a real thing.
 
T

TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
Again, that all makes sense but you’re still guessing with predictions going out to August.

There is going to be intense pressure to get people back to work and the economy going every day that goes by.

There is still the possibility of innovation to make gatherings work and/or testing symptoms like fever before entering gatherings.

If you’re throwing out August, you’re still saying people will gather while the virus has no vaccine, which means you’re going to rely on said innovations and procedures which I think can and have to be implemented sooner. Quicker testing is already a real thing.
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Testing fever simply doesn't work with so many asymptomatic carriers - either those who will never get sick or those will become ill but it hasn't hit them yet. If you read first-hand accounts of those with even the "mild-to-moderate" version of the illness, it makes the typical flu look like a walk in the park. Can't imagine most people want to trek around through a swamp feeling like that.

Also I'm not the one saying anything, this is the Governor of California saying these things:

“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine,” Newsom said. “So large-scale events that bring in hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of strangers altogether across every conceivable difference, health and otherwise, is not in the cards based upon our current guidelines and current expectations.”

Again, this can change if there's better testing and tracing of contacts or a therapeutic drug, but his description above is literally Disneyland.

www.mercurynews.com

Governor Newsom: Mass gatherings ‘not in the cards’ when California lockdown is lifted

“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best,” Newsom said Tuesday.
www.mercurynews.com www.mercurynews.com
 
Kman101

Kman101

Well-Known Member
Lilofan said:
This sounds like a click bait rumor.
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It is. However, it's fair to say Disney has internally prepared for August. But that's a worst case scenario.

July feels more reasonable overall but I could see June with lots of restrictions in place. They still have to get cast back. Not just flick a switch like many assume.
 
Kman101

Kman101

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
It's not about a vaccine (though that's obviously the biggest milestone), it's about being able to get it under control by testing enough people, tracing their contacts and isolating those people to get the virus down to minimal levels. This likely can't be done and the virus under control enough until late summer/fall. It is for this reason anything with crowds of more than a hundred people or so likely won't be allowed until then and DL certainly fits the bill.
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While I absolutely do agree with this and you ...

Newsom also didn't say that's how it's going to play out. It's what he saw happening not that it's "how we're going to do it". We are two months away from June. A lot can happen between now and then, and especially by August. Remember he also said Disneyland was the exception for like an hour before they shut down in March soo ...

Keeping us locked up the whole year isn't going to help (and we also can't ease up too soon either!). It's not sustainable. What happens when they ease up in August/September and this returns? Should we just cross off 2020 entirely? I'm in no rush to return to the parks, personally, or even be around a crowd, so I'm not saying let's flick a switch and rush to open but if we stay locked down until August and then this returns anyway ...

The country needs a game plan and we don't have one. Every state is in a different place with this. Countries are in a different place with this.
 

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