Is a fifth gate even possible?

[Heppenheimer]

Any new parks in Orlando would be canibalizing the other 4...

there is a finite amount of time that the average customer will invest (not to mention cash) for a vacation.

when mgm opened...the overlords saw average vacation time go up almost 2 full days...the dawn of the “Uber resort”...

so when dak opened...they expected the same. It hit the wall and went up less than a day. For a huge billions of dollar expansion plan.

why? Because it hit the 7 day “wall”.

I don’t have access to that data (now)...but I bet it’s the same. Which also explains why they shifted away from trying to get frequent offenders There all the time to more “quick strike”...one timers. Diminishing returns.

there’s no need to pay, staff, and attempt to convince people they need yet another magic kingdom to go to.

Interesting analysis. Prior to EPCOT, on our family trips, our stays at Disney World were about 5 days, and this allotted a full day each to Cyprus Gardens and River Country, and brief trips to Lake Buena Vista and Discovery Island. Add EPCOT, the trip went to 7 full days, which allowed for seeing everything twice at both parks, River Country and Cyprus Gardens (goodbye Discovery Island). Add MGM (and the two other waterparks), our trip was still 7 days, but Cyprus Gardens and River Country got dropped in favor of either Blizzard Beach or Typhoon Lagoon, and not everything at the parks got a repeat visit.

Fast forward to when I'm an adult, we have Animal Kingdom , and I booked one 10 day trip... and found it too long. I'm back to 7 days and happy with that.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Obviously a third domestic location ain't happening. That said, I think an interesting thought exercise is imagining what a third resort in the US would look like. Say, in Texas, which would certainly seem the most logical location.

The first (only?) park would of course be a castle park. And it would obviously be underbuilt as all new Disney parks are these days. But what might be interesting is if they filled its roster not with duplicating what is in Florida or California but with attractions that are only at the international resorts (or *gasp* new and unique). Doing stuff like:

Shanghai POTC instead of classic pirates
Mystic Manor (perhaps instead of Haunted Mansion though I think they are pretty different)
Grizzly Mountain instead of BTMRR. Or the Paris version of BTRMM going onto the island
Roaring Rapids
Sinbad ride (maybe in Adventureland?)
Journey to the Center of the Earth
Fantasyland featuring Honey Hunt, Alice labyrinth, the Tangled ride from Fantasy Springs, the BatB ride from Tokyo, Wandering Oaken's Sleighs, Peter Pan's flight from Shanghai, etc.
Monsters Ride and go seek
Marvel land with stuff like Iron Man Experience or the Iron Man RNR from Paris, Nano Battle

I'm not saying that they couldn't or shouldn't use attractions from WDW/DLR but it is interesting that they could make a pretty unique park by copying offerings at the international parks.

If they wanted to build something in North America that wouldn't cannibalize their existing properties, I say just resurrect Walt's old idea for a ski resort. But to avoid all the land use issues that eventually killed his Mineral King project, just buy an existing ski resort and retheme it. Heck, Mont Tremblant near Montreal already even looks like something designed by Disney Imagineers:

https://www.tremblant.ca/

Jay Peak and Burke Mountain here in Vermont are both currently in receivership and could use a new owner:

Jay Peak | Four Season Resort | Vermont

jaypeakresort.com

Home

Burke Mountain Resort - The Last Little Corner of Vermont

skiburke.com

 

[ppete1975]

I agree that you'd cannibalize your own business with a 3rd location. I don't think building up Disneyland is realistic. You need space for expansion and resorts to create the bubble. They just don't have it available. The only real expansion option I could see is to continue building up WDW. They have the land and infrastructure in place.

so you could easily build up disneyland but it would require a complete change in thought, and that would be to remove all the parking lots. Then move the parking lots a few miles away and Tram, monorail, bus everyone over. As dumb as it sounds thats basically how you enter disneyworld now.

 

[ppete1975]

They had that area of Downtown Disney that was supposed to be expanded, then there was trouble with Anaheim over permits or taxes or something and it didn't happen. Now I believe they're trying to get permission to expand however they'd like without city approval for specific land use. Something like that. I should have clarified that obviously they can expand some, but I think it's too limited to really go very far or build a bubble destination resort like WDW. That said, I love Disneyland and I would like to see more built in California, however they can manage to do it.

So one unexpected advantage of covid is i think anaheim might FINALLY appreciate Disney. Anaheim in the last few years especially have been hard for Disney to work with, and the Angels. Realizing how dependent all the businesses around disney are, and how much tax revenues they lost.. they might be more willing to help disney and not fight them.

 

[SpoiledBlueMilk]

Bring back Eisner's idea of a park outside of DC! Idiot NIMBY protesters killed it and now it's theme park of Toll Brothers McMansions.

 

[SteveAZee]

I have very little interest in a fifth park, at least given the current corporate leadership at Disney. First, the idea has to be really brilliant and novel and interesting and can be expanded on for many years to come... not sure I see that coming from Disney at this point in the time. Second, they would probably end up cutting the budget to the bone once construction timelines approached, so it might be left, at opening, with one E ride and one D and a whole lot of fluff and nonsense at best, leaving it a 1/3 of a day park. Third, I'm lazy and would rather have more attractions wedged into existing space so I don't have to walk as far on my vacation.

 

[The Grand Inquisitor]

Personally I would rather see a third park at Disneyland or a Disney park in a brand new state entirely. Heck Disney could open a Fox theme park with all of the ips they will not use in their parks like Blue Sky and Planet of the Apes.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have very little interest in a fifth park, at least given the current corporate leadership at Disney. First, the idea has to be really brilliant and novel and interesting and can be expanded on for many years to come... not sure I see that coming from Disney at this point in the time. Second, they would probably end up cutting the budget to the bone once construction timelines approached, so it might be left, at opening, with one E ride and one D and a whole lot of fluff and nonsense at best, leaving it a 1/3 of a day park. Third, I'm lazy and would rather have more attractions wedged into existing space so I don't have to walk as far on my vacation.

yep...can’t find anything to disagree with there

 

[The Pho]

Personally I would rather see a third park at Disneyland or a Disney park in a brand new state entirely. Heck Disney could open a Fox theme park with all of the ips they will not use in their parks like Blue Sky and Planet of the Apes.

Curious how those rights are structured. The Planet of the Apes dark ride at Genting Skyworlds opens up pretty soon, along with several other Fox themed rides, I assume they hold some level of control over the park rights. Probably more localized, but Disney did get them to drop the Alien vs Predator coaster.

 

[tentaguasu]

Though I know this is not what you mean by 5th Gate, I'd say that's exactly what Disney is already doing.

From our perspective (i.e. the general public Disney nerds), a Fifth Gate means another park with rides, restaurants, etc. like HS, AK, etc.

But as others have already explained, they're sort of at the point of diminishing returns that is unlikely to make a Fifth Gate profitable. For me personally, a week to 10 days is my maximum in Orlando. If I had a Fifth Gate (which I'd love) I probably wouldn't stay 25% longer, I'd just redistribute the days I have among the parks.

So to really make more money, Disney has to extract more money from people in the 7 days they spend in Orlando.

They do and can continue to ramp up revenue by ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

But the real play is segmenting guests by income level.

I'm a cheapskate. No way I'll pay the kind of money it costs for signature dining. But you might. So Disney has Cosmic Rays for me and Tiffins for you. Disney has "parties" that allow higher spenders to have special experiences. That's upselling special access.

What's the ultimate expression of this? A "rich man's" Fifth Gate - a unique Disney park that is super expensive and exclusive. That way you're not cannibalizing the main parks among the average guests, you're just creating a new gate that skims off the cream of the spending public and upsells them something awesome in addition to the normal park experience. (Again, they're sort of doing this with the proliferation of parties and such.)

Of course such a "rich man's fifth gate" would have to be somewhat different. It couldn't be mass scale rides and restaurants. It'd have to be a more intimate, bespoke experience but one that screams "this is worth a ton of money to experience." It'd have to be smaller and more intimate, with "high touch" (i.e. lots of cast members for a relatively small number of guests).

So imagine a super expensive, immersive experience that leverages Disney's IP, creates a unique experience that a small percentage of visitors would pay huge money for - like several thousands of dollars per person money.

So I'd say Disney is already creating the "Rich Man's" Fifth Gate: The Star Wars Hotel.

I mean, even calling it a "hotel" is a misnomer. No one is going there to spend the night. They'll be going for the experience. The sleeping part is really incidental to everything they'll be experiencing while there.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Though I know this is not what you mean by 5th Gate, I'd say that's exactly what Disney is already doing.

From our perspective (i.e. the general public Disney nerds), a Fifth Gate means another park with rides, restaurants, etc. like HS, AK, etc.

But as others have already explained, there sort of at the point of diminishing returns that is unlikely to make a Fifth Gate profitable. For me personally, a week to 10 days is my maximum in Orlando. If I had a Fifth Gate (which I'd love) I probably wouldn't stay 25% longer, I'd just redistribute the days I have among the parks.

So to really make more money, Disney has to extract more money from people in the 7 days they spend in Orlando.

They do and can continue to ramp up revenue by ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

But the real play is segmenting guests by income level.

I'm a cheapskate. No way I'll pay the kind of money it costs for signature dining. But you might. So Disney has Cosmic Rays for me and Tiffins for you. Disney has "parties" that allow higher spenders to have special experiences. That's upselling special access.

What's the ultimate expression of this? A "rich man's" Fifth Gate - a unique Disney park that is super expensive and exclusive. That way you're not cannibalizing the main parks among the average guests, you're just creating a new gate that skims off the cream of the spending public and upsells them something awesome in addition to the normal park experience. (Again, they're sort of doing this with the proliferation of parties and such.)

Of course such a "rich man's fifth gate" would have to be somewhat different. It couldn't be mass scale rides and restaurants. It'd have to be a more intimate, bespoke experience but one that screams "this is worth a ton of money to experience." It'd have to be smaller and more intimate, with "high touch" (i.e. lots of cast members for a relatively small number of guests).

So imagine a super expensive, immersive experience that leverages Disney's IP, creates a unique experience that a small percentage of visitors would pay huge money for - like several thousands of dollars per person money.

So I'd say Disney is already creating the "Rich Man's" Fifth Gate: The Star Wars Hotel.

I mean, even calling it a "hotel" is a misnomer. No one is going there to spend the night. They'll be going for the experience. The sleeping part is really incidental to everything they'll be experiencing while there.

nothing about what they’re built/what they’re doing in the back corner of mgm qualifies as a “fifth gate”...beyond the price.

everyone enjoy that

 

[castlecake2.0]

Though I know this is not what you mean by 5th Gate, I'd say that's exactly what Disney is already doing.

From our perspective (i.e. the general public Disney nerds), a Fifth Gate means another park with rides, restaurants, etc. like HS, AK, etc.

But as others have already explained, there sort of at the point of diminishing returns that is unlikely to make a Fifth Gate profitable. For me personally, a week to 10 days is my maximum in Orlando. If I had a Fifth Gate (which I'd love) I probably wouldn't stay 25% longer, I'd just redistribute the days I have among the parks.

So to really make more money, Disney has to extract more money from people in the 7 days they spend in Orlando.

They do and can continue to ramp up revenue by ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

But the real play is segmenting guests by income level.

I'm a cheapskate. No way I'll pay the kind of money it costs for signature dining. But you might. So Disney has Cosmic Rays for me and Tiffins for you. Disney has "parties" that allow higher spenders to have special experiences. That's upselling special access.

What's the ultimate expression of this? A "rich man's" Fifth Gate - a unique Disney park that is super expensive and exclusive. That way you're not cannibalizing the main parks among the average guests, you're just creating a new gate that skims off the cream of the spending public and upsells them something awesome in addition to the normal park experience. (Again, they're sort of doing this with the proliferation of parties and such.)

Of course such a "rich man's fifth gate" would have to be somewhat different. It couldn't be mass scale rides and restaurants. It'd have to be a more intimate, bespoke experience but one that screams "this is worth a ton of money to experience." It'd have to be smaller and more intimate, with "high touch" (i.e. lots of cast members for a relatively small number of guests).

So imagine a super expensive, immersive experience that leverages Disney's IP, creates a unique experience that a small percentage of visitors would pay huge money for - like several thousands of dollars per person money.

So I'd say Disney is already creating the "Rich Man's" Fifth Gate: The Star Wars Hotel.

I mean, even calling it a "hotel" is a misnomer. No one is going there to spend the night. They'll be going for the experience. The sleeping part is really incidental to everything they'll be experiencing while there.

Would be curious to see what data this provides. It’s almost like a cruise on land. I could see something similar at jambo house, but instead of being in space you’re on safari, with a detailed excursion and dining schedule and packaged price...

 

[tentaguasu]

Would be curious to see what data this provides. It’s almost like a cruise on land. I could see something similar at jambo house, but instead of being in space you’re on safari, with a detailed excursion and dining schedule and packaged price...

"Cruise on land" is a perfect way to put it. I think if the Star Wars thing works, they'll definitely do it again, and you're right - the safari angle could be really interesting.

 

[It Is What It Is]

Armchair speculation here:

Next 5 years: Finish up existing projects. A few new small inexpensive projects annonced at D23 for US parks. Financially make up for the year that was lost to Covid.

2026 - 2030: Finish making Disney Studios (Paris) into a second gate. DHS expansion, a couple E tickets to AK. If the economy is good, a couple other surprises. DCL Ships 8, 9 & 10. Marvel and Universal get east of the Mississippi clause resolved.

2030 - 2040 Chapek will need his Iger global moment, Mumbai Disneyland announced. Disneyland's Tomorrowland finally transformed -. the big surprise, it's all centered around the Peoplemover. 2 to 3 more E Tickets at each park. Ten more ships. National Geographic high end cruises to exotic destinations. Some kind of an Aulani type resort in the Mediterranean (probably Spain) and one in the Maldives (unless sea rise is kicking their butt). Marvel land at DHS. Bambi gets her own land, everyone blames Chapek for doing it on the cheap like Eisner did with DCA. Bob Iger starts a Save Disney campaign and gets Chapek fired. Matthew McConaughey steps down from governor of Texas to run Disney. He's not going to build a park in Texas.

2040 - 2050: Holographic technology takes off and becomes the big thing for E tickets. More ships. Disney contemplates buying out another cruise line but decides against it.

2055: Disney Forward is finally complete. People still wonder why a third park hasn't been announced.

2063: Disney announces plans at D23 for .....wait for it ..... a new overlay for Dinoland. National Geo inspired, kidding, but a National Geographic resort.

2065: Disney announces that have succumbed to one person that has never stopped posting on different forums that they want a Villans 5th gate. To be complete in 2071.

2077: 150 years later, Oswald finally gets his own ride .... At age 110, my life dream comes true, I can finally give up the ghost

 

[AugieMorosco]

so you could easily build up disneyland but it would require a complete change in thought, and that would be to remove all the parking lots. Then move the parking lots a few miles away and Tram, monorail, bus everyone over. As dumb as it sounds thats basically how you enter disneyworld now.

That had never occurred to me, but you're right. That would be a ton easier if Anaheim decided they wanted it to happen and helped out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

so you could easily build up disneyland but it would require a complete change in thought, and that would be to remove all the parking lots. Then move the parking lots a few miles away and Tram, monorail, bus everyone over. As dumb as it sounds thats basically how you enter disneyworld now.

yep...you could definitely get approval to build a self contained, private transport system with easements for under a trillion dollars in the Los Angeles area these days...

 

[ppete1975]

yep...you could definitely get approval to build a self contained, private transport system with easements for under a trillion dollars in the Los Angeles area these days...

I said possible.. not plausible

 

[ppete1975]

That had never occurred to me, but you're right. That would be a ton easier if Anaheim decided they wanted it to happen and helped out.

I still think covid showed anaheim they need disney.. at least you would hope

 

[Robbiem]

Interesting idea. I think Disney have made some serious mistakes in Anaheim over the years. Not buying Garden Walk or Knotts and not tyring to use the Angels site or the convention centre land are obvious examples but I’m sure there are more sites which Disney passed on And thats not counting the whole long beach resort, Newport DVC and various ski resort plans over the years

If there was a will Disney and the local government could think big and provide much more of a resort experience- move parking and the convention center to Angel field connect to Disneyland with a monorail then build on the convention centre and strawberry field as well as the existing resort area. Not likely and vey expensive but as Walt said ‘anything is possible at Disneyland’.

 

[G00fyDad]

IMHO, I think COVID knocked the crud out of Disney and it may take them decades to open a fifth park (If they ever do it). I look at it like a mini Dark Ages. That 500 years in human history damped down our growth as a species. We'd be a lot farther along right now if we didn't lose those years. COVID was like a mini Dark Ages for Disney parks. Just that is just me thinking out loud.