I am doing the math right?

[Purduevian]

Hello all,

Curious about DVC and was playing around with some numbers. I was looking at 1 week stay in the fall season at Poly with a resort view in a studio. I believe I would need 160 points to do this every year.

Disney would sell me 160 points for $37,579.35

The 2025 dues for Poly are $8.2301 per point, or $1,316.816

My understanding is the contract would be for 50 years and annual dues increase on average 4% year over year. Meaning in 2075, the annual dues would be $8996.26. Total annual dues for the 50 years is $201,034.45. Add in the initial cost gives a total of $238,613.80. Assuming 7 nights x 50 years, total is $681.75 a night.

Is my math right on this? or am I missing something?

 

[nickys]

The contract date would run until the Poly ends, which isn’t 50 years at this point. It expires in Jan 2066, so effectively 2065).

There may be offers to cut the initial buy-in costs, such as Magical Beginnings.

** Don’t forget to consider resale. **

I haven’t checked the points charts, but as a Poly owner you can book the original studios or the Tower rooms.

 

[cjkeating]

Hello all,

Curious about DVC and was playing around with some numbers. I was looking at 1 week stay in the fall season at Poly with a resort view in a studio. I believe I would need 160 points to do this every year.

Disney would sell me 160 points for $37,579.35

The 2025 dues for Poly are $8.2301 per point, or $1,316.816

My understanding is the contract would be for 50 years and annual dues increase on average 4% year over year. Meaning in 2075, the annual dues would be $8996.26. Total annual dues for the 50 years is $201,034.45. Add in the initial cost gives a total of $238,613.80. Assuming 7 nights x 50 years, total is $681.75 a night.

Is my math right on this? or am I missing something?

Out of interest have you calculated what 7 nights cash would cost you? And using a figure what this would cost over the 50 years? Obviously it's harder to predict what % a Disney hotel room will increase by but it won't be less than the 4% used for the due multiplier.

 

[Purduevian]

Out of interest have you calculated what 7 nights cash would cost you? And using a figure what this would cost over the 50 years? Obviously it's harder to predict what % a Disney hotel room will increase by but it won't be less than the 4% used for the due multiplier.

Using the second Sat-Sat in October as a baseline: $657 in 2022 $811 in 2023 (+23%), $895 in 2024(+10.3%), and $904 (+1%) a night in 2025

So maybe an average of 11%?
Assuming 1 week at poly for the next 40 years and an 11% annual increase = $3,681,795 or $13,149.27 a night! (fun fact the 2065 would have rooms at $58,760.78 a night). Something tells me this isn't possible, but I have no idea what numbers to use haha

The contract date would run until the Poly ends, which isn’t 50 years at this point. It expires in Jan 2066, so effectively 2065).

There may be offers to cut the initial buy-in costs, such as Magical Beginnings.

** Don’t forget to consider resale. **

I haven’t checked the points charts, but as a Poly owner you can book the original studios or the Tower rooms.

Ahh thank you, I assumed it was 50 years from the contract purchased... so redoing the math for 40 years.

160 points is $27,579.35. Year 40 the dues would be ~$6322.06. Total dues owed in the 40 years is $130,136.4. Total cost of the contract = $157,715.7 or $563.27 a night.

Thanks for the re-sale advice. There would have to be so many more talks with my family on if this was worth it for us, but just playing with the numbers and dreaming.

 

[cjkeating]

Using the second Sat-Sat in October as a baseline: $657 in 2022 $811 in 2023 (+23%), $895 in 2024(+10.3%), and $904 (+1%) a night in 2025

So maybe an average of 11%?
Assuming 1 week at poly for the next 40 years and an 11% annual increase = $3,681,795 or $13,149.27 a night! (fun fact the 2065 would have rooms at $58,760.78 a night). Something tells me this isn't possible, but I have no idea what numbers to use haha

Thanks for this. I bought DVC during COVID (a potentially odd choice I know...) and remember doing some similar maths at the time.

I made a similar purchase to what you are considering at 125 points at AKL so roughly 1 week in a Studio with the intention to use for 2 weeks every 2 years.

So far we have got lots of value out of it. 1 week at Aulani which before COVID was going to be a cash purchase and then a number of weeks at AKL. We also have plans to (try to) use our points at Disneyland next year if the maths works out and also another trip to Aulani before the end of the decade.

As an international owner I find it very reassuring to be able to book 11 months out at our home resort and not have to worry about waiting for deals etc and being unsure of the price we will pay. Is staying at a 'Deluxe' resort a bit of a splurge? Yes. But I think in the long term assuming we continue to visit WDW I think Deluxe's become the preferred place you'd want to stay versus the Moderates (which are way too big excluding POFQ) or Values (which understandably attract a younger crowd at the entry price point).

 

[AkiraRaptor]

Using the second Sat-Sat in October as a baseline: $657 in 2022 $811 in 2023 (+23%), $895 in 2024(+10.3%), and $904 (+1%) a night in 2025

So maybe an average of 11%?
Assuming 1 week at poly for the next 40 years and an 11% annual increase = $3,681,795 or $13,149.27 a night! (fun fact the 2065 would have rooms at $58,760.78 a night). Something tells me this isn't possible, but I have no idea what numbers to use haha


Ahh thank you, I assumed it was 50 years from the contract purchased... so redoing the math for 40 years.

160 points is $27,579.35. Year 40 the dues would be ~$6322.06. Total dues owed in the 40 years is $130,136.4. Total cost of the contract = $157,715.7 or $563.27 a night.

Thanks for the re-sale advice. There would have to be so many more talks with my family on if this was worth it for us, but just playing with the numbers and dreaming.

I think I spotted a error on your purchase math. The current rate for a Poly point is $235 I think. So 160 points is $37,600+closing cost. The number of years left of the hotel contracts don't matter I believe. So your original number seem OK.

And from my experience with our AKL points, the dues do change percentages every year, but they don't go up every year by that much but your average is close. We started around $800 a year and are at around $1500 now after 18 years. And at your calculations, we should be around $5600 or so on our 50th year.

On re-sale, make sure you know all the negatives if you only have re-sale points. As of today, if you have 160 points from Disney + re-sale points, then you're good, but you need a minimum to have DVC benefits.

 

[yaksplat]

I have room price and dues tracking going back as far as they are available. If they keep going at the rate they are, in 2066 (end of my contract)

dues per point: $27.68
rack rate for one night: $15,812

My total dues will be 1/3 of one night.

 

[yaksplat]

oh, and dues at the polynesian have averaged a 3.1% increase

2025 dues are 7.93. They dropped 3.65%

 

[Disstevefan1]

Hello all,

Curious about DVC and was playing around with some numbers. I was looking at 1 week stay in the fall season at Poly with a resort view in a studio. I believe I would need 160 points to do this every year.

Disney would sell me 160 points for $37,579.35

The 2025 dues for Poly are $8.2301 per point, or $1,316.816

My understanding is the contract would be for 50 years and annual dues increase on average 4% year over year. Meaning in 2075, the annual dues would be $8996.26. Total annual dues for the 50 years is $201,034.45. Add in the initial cost gives a total of $238,613.80. Assuming 7 nights x 50 years, total is $681.75 a night.

Is my math right on this? or am I missing something?

One thing you forgot, by 2075 time travel will be possible and you can simply go back in time and not purchase DVC in the first place

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

My understanding is the contract would be for 50 years and annual dues increase on average 4% year over year. Meaning in 2075, the annual dues would be $8996.26. Total annual dues for the 50 years is $201,034.45. Add in the initial cost gives a total of $238,613.80. Assuming 7 nights x 50 years, total is $681.75 a night.

Is my math right on this? or am I missing something?

4 percent annual increase to dues is probably too low TBH. Annual dues increases at timeshare resorts tend to increase as resorts age and require more maintenance.

 

[larryz]

One thing you forgot, by 2075 time travel will be possible and you can simply go back in time and not purchase DVC in the first place

Or you can go back to 1998 and buy Wilderness Lodge Villas at $63/point.

 

[unclelude]

DVC math (timeshare math) can be fun! Time value of money... inflation ... etc... There are tons of posts about it for reading enjoyment

IDK, generally speaking I think it's hard to put a real value on something 40 years in the future... to illustrate someone put it something like this:

What would you pay *today* for 1 week in a hotel room 40 years in the future ? (this doesn't include dues!)

If you do simple price per year $36,000 / 40 years ... is $900 per year.. Would you pay $900 today for a vacation in 40 years? I wouldn't. I probably wouldn't pay anything.

For me, It's hard to really value something that far into the future even if you add inflation or apply some kind of discount...

But yeah, total cost calculations are kinda crazy numbers from today's perspective

Fun stuff.

Good Luck! Have fun!