Hurricane Emily

[MiamiSpartan]

OK, so maybe it's jumping the gun, but it'll be a TS tonite, and a Hurricane within the next couple of days...this one has me spooked....

 

[SpongeScott]

Not to fret--yet. This thing is still not organized very well and IF it stays on the projected path, it's got a lot of land to go across, so its strength should/could stay down. It hasn't increased in speed in over 12 hours and they are having a hard time finding a center of circulation. Maybe this one won't amount to anything.

From the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY
A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK
AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL
DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY
IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

 

[LouDisney]

Oh lord!! Lets hope it does not stay organized and goes away!

 

[pinkrose]

Let's hope this one doesn't amount to anything. There's another wave behind it also, but they don't think it will organize.

 

[Tara Mae]

I hope this one doesn't become much.
It's too far out to tell, in my opinion.
But it is becoming quite organized, and quite strong.
*prays that it doesn't head to LA's southwestern gulf coast* I've got family there!

 

[pinkrose]

I've read that they're expecting this to become a major hurricane. The waters sure are warm enough.

I hope if it does, it will be a fish hurricane (staying out at sea).

 

[WDWKat26]

I hope this one doesn't become much.
It's too far out to tell, in my opinion.
But it is becoming quite organized, and quite strong.
*prays that it doesn't head to LA's southwestern gulf coast* I've got family there!

Huh? LA's? Okay Blonde Moment, you need to be more specific because I think you're talking about California.

 

[LouDisney]

I am sure Tara did not mean to freak you out, most use LA for Louisiana and L.A. for Los Angeles, and she said Gulf Coast.

 

[pinkrose]

It's looking like they'll be announcing "Emilly" in the next hour or so.

This was on the weather board that I read...

**** ATTENTION **** ATTENTION **** ATTENTION ****

FROM THE GULF SHORES/ORANGE BEACH COMMUNITY

Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are now closed to ANY OR ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Repeat, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are now closed to ANY OR ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.

Residents of the cities of Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, and Navarre Beach are unanimous in declaring the Gulf Coast Region a "NO TROPICAL ZONE".

Spokesperson Phil. N. DeName stated, "We enjoy playing host to all walks of life and weather systems, when our hospitality is abused, we must restrict certain visitors so that the majority of our guests can enjoy their stay..."

 

[pinkrose]

Hello Emily


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[pinkrose]

 

[pinkrose]

 

[WDWKat26]

You know, I was at work today when the news about this came on. Honestly, the news guys down here were like "Our plans show that it may move into the Gulf" blah blah blah...

My Captain and I were yelling at the TV like "Are you kidding?" That thing is making a straight Bee Line for Florida. I'm going to be prepared for this one.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Im not worried. I just dont like working out in this crapola.

 

[The_CEO]

Wow they just keep coming!

 

[Kadee]

It's looking like they'll be announcing "Emilly" in the next hour or so.

This was on the weather board that I read...

**** ATTENTION **** ATTENTION **** ATTENTION ****

FROM THE GULF SHORES/ORANGE BEACH COMMUNITY

Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are now closed to ANY OR ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Repeat, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are now closed to ANY OR ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.

Residents of the cities of Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, and Navarre Beach are unanimous in declaring the Gulf Coast Region a "NO TROPICAL ZONE".

Spokesperson Phil. N. DeName stated, "We enjoy playing host to all walks of life and weather systems, when our hospitality is abused, we must restrict certain visitors so that the majority of our guests can enjoy their stay..."

LMAO!!!! TOO funny! I think we have had our fair share for the season, don't you? And the season is just getting started.

 

[Kadee]

It looks like it is heading right into the Gulf just like Ivan and Dennis. I do not like this! I think I may need to move away from this area. Montana seems nice! No hurricanes, no earthquakes. I can handle the snow.

 

[pinkrose]

Some people seem to thiink that this one is going towards Tx. From someone on the weather board....

NHC now brings Emily to a Cat. 3 SOUTH of Cuba...eerily similar track to Dennis. However...it looks as though the northeast Gulf may be spared this time as the ridge axis is over the southeast US...sending Emily on her way to Texas...only bad news there is water temps are really warm out that way...possibly allowing Emily to streghen beyond a Cat. 3.

 

[pinkrose]

Forcast models....

 

[pinkrose]

The 11am forcast track....