How Fast Pass+ Effects Wait Times

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Purduevian

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Lurking around these forums for awhile I have often heard things like "[Insert Omnivore of choice] would not have a wait time if it wasn't for FP+". So I decided to do a thought experiment to see how Fast Pass+ effects wait times around the Magic Kingdom.

Experiment 1: NO FAST PASS
Assumptions:
1) 20,450,000 people visit Magic Kingdom Each Year (from TEA report), meaning an average day at MK has 56,027 guests
2) Approximately 25% of people are not on an attraction or in line. They are eating, shopping, watching a stage show show, going to the bathroom, at a walk through attraction, taking selfies, walking, ect. This leaves 42,021 people either on a ride or in line.
3)Every attraction is currently at max capacity (people on the ride)
4) Wait times are approximated manually to get close to 42,021 in line or on ride.

Data:
NO FP.jpg

Results:
Total People on Rides: 7,852
Total People in Standby Lines: 34,241
Average Standby Wait time: 41 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day: 11-12

Experiment 2: WITH FAST PASS PLUS

Assumptions:
1) Assumptions 1,3, and 4 are the same as experiment 1
2) Assumption 2 is changed to 30% of people instead of 25%, this is because the ultimate goal of Fast Pass, to get more people eating, shopping, and out of line.
3) 50% of all ride capacity is dedicated to the Fast Pass line. I really don't know what the number is and I believe it varies by ride, but 50% is good enough for this.
4) Average Fast Pass Wait time is 8 minutes. Like Assumption 3, I don't know what the number is, but this is good enough.

Data:
With FP.jpg

Results:
Total People on rides: 7,852
Total People in FP Line: 2,495
Total People in Standby Line: 28,896
Average Standby Wait time: 66 minutes
Average Guest Wait time: 61 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day without any Fast Pass: 7-8

Conclusion:
Fast Pass increases the average Standby Wait time by 25 minutes.
The "break even" point for guests is about 4 fast passes in a day to make up for the increased standby lines

Please let me know if you see any errors or have any questions!
 
kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
Purduevian said:
Lurking around these forums for awhile I have often heard things like "[Insert Omnivore of choice] would not have a wait time if it wasn't for FP+". So I decided to do a thought experiment to see how Fast Pass+ effects wait times around the Magic Kingdom.

Experiment 1: NO FAST PASS
Assumptions:
1) 20,450,000 people visit Magic Kingdom Each Year (from TEA report), meaning an average day at MK has 56,027 guests
2) Approximately 25% of people are not on an attraction or in line. They are eating, shopping, watching a stage show show, going to the bathroom, at a walk through attraction, taking selfies, walking, ect. This leaves 42,021 people either on a ride or in line.
3)Every attraction is currently at max capacity (people on the ride)
4) Wait times are approximated manually to get close to 42,021 in line or on ride.

Data:
View attachment 315067
Results:
Total People on Rides: 7,852
Total People in Standby Lines: 34,241
Average Standby Wait time: 41 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day: 11-12

Experiment 2: WITH FAST PASS PLUS

Assumptions:
1) Assumptions 1,3, and 4 are the same as experiment 1
2) Assumption 2 is changed to 30% of people instead of 25%, this is because the ultimate goal of Fast Pass, to get more people eating, shopping, and out of line.
3) 50% of all ride capacity is dedicated to the Fast Pass line. I really don't know what the number is and I believe it varies by ride, but 50% is good enough for this.
4) Average Fast Pass Wait time is 8 minutes. Like Assumption 3, I don't know what the number is, but this is good enough.

Data:
View attachment 315070
Results:
Total People on rides: 7,852
Total People in FP Line: 2,495
Total People in Standby Line: 28,896
Average Standby Wait time: 66 minutes
Average Guest Wait time: 61 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day without any Fast Pass: 7-8

Conclusion:
Fast Pass increases the average Standby Wait time by 25 minutes.
The "break even" point for guests is about 4 fast passes in a day to make up for the increased standby lines

Please let me know if you see any errors or have any questions!
Click to expand...

There's certainly a lot more variables that come into play here (like arrival time at the park, late night departures, etc..), and I think FP gets 70-80% priority.

But, I agree with your findings. FP+ undoubtedly has raised standby waits. My theory is they are trying to lower the accepted amount of experiences throughout the day. I'm guessing that they want that number down to 7-8 vs 11-12....
 
P

Purduevian

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
kong1802 said:
There's certainly a lot more variables that come into play here (like arrival time at the park, late night departures, etc..), and I think FP gets 70-80% priority.
Click to expand...

I agree that there a lot more variables at play at any given moment. Parades, Fireworks, people coming and going, meal times ect can all effect how many people currently would like to go onto an attraction. I'm amazed FP gets 70%-80% priority, I had no idea it was that high! I did this as a little thought experiment and certainly wasn't trying to perfectly represent a day at magic kingdom, just a fun basis for discussing the effects of FP+ with at least a little math behind it.
 
T

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Purduevian said:
Lurking around these forums for awhile I have often heard things like "[Insert Omnivore of choice] would not have a wait time if it wasn't for FP+". So I decided to do a thought experiment to see how Fast Pass+ effects wait times around the Magic Kingdom.

Experiment 1: NO FAST PASS
Assumptions:
1) 20,450,000 people visit Magic Kingdom Each Year (from TEA report), meaning an average day at MK has 56,027 guests
2) Approximately 25% of people are not on an attraction or in line. They are eating, shopping, watching a stage show show, going to the bathroom, at a walk through attraction, taking selfies, walking, ect. This leaves 42,021 people either on a ride or in line.
3)Every attraction is currently at max capacity (people on the ride)
4) Wait times are approximated manually to get close to 42,021 in line or on ride.

Data:
View attachment 315067
Results:
Total People on Rides: 7,852
Total People in Standby Lines: 34,241
Average Standby Wait time: 41 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day: 11-12

Experiment 2: WITH FAST PASS PLUS

Assumptions:
1) Assumptions 1,3, and 4 are the same as experiment 1
2) Assumption 2 is changed to 30% of people instead of 25%, this is because the ultimate goal of Fast Pass, to get more people eating, shopping, and out of line.
3) 50% of all ride capacity is dedicated to the Fast Pass line. I really don't know what the number is and I believe it varies by ride, but 50% is good enough for this.
4) Average Fast Pass Wait time is 8 minutes. Like Assumption 3, I don't know what the number is, but this is good enough.

Data:
View attachment 315070
Results:
Total People on rides: 7,852
Total People in FP Line: 2,495
Total People in Standby Line: 28,896
Average Standby Wait time: 66 minutes
Average Guest Wait time: 61 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day without any Fast Pass: 7-8

Conclusion:
Fast Pass increases the average Standby Wait time by 25 minutes.
The "break even" point for guests is about 4 fast passes in a day to make up for the increased standby lines

Please let me know if you see any errors or have any questions!
Click to expand...
No need for all the analysis... simple logic is this. A ride can only take X number of riders per hour... doesn't matter if there is a fastpass or not the ride has a limited capacity... So plopping in another line (in this case the fastpass line) that will be used to allow some number of guest to jump ahead of the people in the regular line will by definition increase the time it takes to get from the start of the regular line to the actual ride. Only thing that counter that logic is if you were to assume that the lines are now shorter than they were prior to the fastpass line being created, from my experience they aren't any shorter...

The only benefit you get from a fastpass is that a guest that is staying on site and therefore gets the earlier access to the fastpasses is able to get a few rides each day without having to stand in line for 1 or 2 hours depending on the ride. So for those people staying on site they might feel that they are getting a great deal by not having to stand in line for the mine train or peter pan... But their is still a trade off because the lines they do stand in for ride they didn't get a fastpass for are longer... In the end most of those guests will never bother to think about whether the fastpass made them stand in line longer for a ride because they will just think of how great it was not to stand in line for the 3 or 4 rides they managed to get a fastpass for and be happy. In fact having all the lines being longer helps Disney to convince people of how great the fastpass system is... just think about it your typical guest will just see the 45 minute and longer lines all day and be thankful they got some ride with no line and be saying thank god I had those fastpasses.

If you think about it the fastpass probably doesn't change the total amount of time you stand in line on any given trip than you would stand if there was no fastpass at all, it just gives you a few ride with very short lines in exchange for all the others being longer.
 
SirWillow

SirWillow

Well-Known Member
When we were there in October we saw up close and personal how dramatically FP+ affected the wait times. During the day at Magic Kingdom there were pretty long waits around the park, even though the crowds were light. Come evening the park got much more busy as Not So Scary started, but wait times went down- in many cases very dramatically- after FP+ ended for the day with the start of the party. It changed rides like Peter Pan, Pooh and Space Mountain from being an unbearable wait to reasonable, and others like Splash to a near walk on and Pirates to a short wait.

it certainly made me wish for either the old fastpass system or that they would ditch the whole thing entirely, as it really kills the number of overall rides you can get in one day because of the increased wait times. Impacted me enough that I actually did a whole video about it. :-)
 

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