how accurate is a crowd calendar?

[Jess G]

For the week that I'll be there crowd calendars say crowds in general will be 4/10 although on the Disney site for my dates there is hardly ANY availability. Only POR garden view, AKL, and cabins. Not sure what to expect?

 

[dreamfinder]

As a rough guide, the 1-to-10 calendar predictions have been exactly right about 25% of the time this year, and +/- 1 just under 60% of the time. Our goal is +/- 1 80% of the time, so there's work to be done.

But I'd still say that's better odds than my local weather. ; ) You guys do some great work over there, and I love seeing your numbers/hearing your logic. My DW always laughed when I told her I took statistics for fun in college, so your work is always more insightful to me than some of the other guys who say "It's Monday, so MK is gonna be busy, make it an 8."