How accurate are crowd calendars?

[eb3257]

The subject says it all. In your experience are they pretty accurate? Do you follow the suggested park for the day or just wing it? My thought is that if everyone is going with the suggested park of the day then the crowds would tend to be higher but I could be all wrong.

 

[JIMINYCR]

There have been quite a few others who have posted the same question, you can search for the past answers given. I know Touring Plans says that although they have many readers who follow their suggested touring guides and crowd calendars, there are many many many more guests who do not follow a crowd calendar or guide so percentage wise, following their plans dont make a park more crowded.

 

[Lisa t]

Pretty accurate. They often will show how close they were in wait times the next day, and a lot of days I will see them spot on, or a couple of rides that were 10-15 minutes off. A lot of people go to the parks with magic hours, and even if the plans says go to other parks because they will be less crowded, a lot of people still follow the parks with magic hours.

 

[carriebeth]

I have found them to be somewhat inconsistent as far as accuracy. 2 years ago they were just plain way off. The crowd levels were predicted to be pretty much exactly what we were used to in previous years of visiting. We always go during very low crowd times. Well waits were way longer than what we were used to. As we walked through the parks you could just see the difference in number of people as well.

 

[disney4life2008]

I have found them to be somewhat inconsistent as far as accuracy. 2 years ago they were just plain way off. The crowd levels were predicted to be pretty much exactly what we were used to in previous years of visiting. We always go during very low crowd times. Well waits were way longer than what we were used to. As we walked through the parks you could just see the difference in number of people as well.

Unfortunately the slow time no longer exists. The only remaining slow time is right after new years/marathon to mlk.

 

[DarthVader]

Unfortunately the slow time no longer exists. The only remaining slow time is right after new years/marathon to mlk.

I have to agree, I've been there enough times through out the years and what used to be slow periods is no longer slow periods. You can only hope to avoid crushing over-crowded situations, like not going on holidays.

 

[MickeyMomV]

So in the thread that was started last week on the subject (http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/does-anybody-trust-crowd-calendars.930872/page-2) @lentesta gave a pretty good explanation on how the crowd calendars are created.

However when it comes to Disney I'm still a firm believer that great planning is far more important than any crowd calendar any day of the week. A "slow" day with no planning can be a disaster and a "busy" day with great planning can be the best day of your vacation.

 

[lentesta]

The good news is that probably 19 out of every 20 people in the park don't use any sort of crowd calendar or touring plan. That's based on our own estimate of how many people read our book and site, versus how many people are in the parks.

Even for those 5%, they probably arrive at different times of day, and have different sets of attractions they want to visit. So the impact gets spread out quite a bit.

 

[rob0519]

Just plan on crowed and then super crowded around Christmas, New Year's Spring Break and all Summer. There is no off season any more. I think crowd estimates based on years old averages are useless these days.

 

[DarthVader]

I think crowd estimates based on years old averages are useless these days.

I like them because they give me a ball part estimate.

 

[Rumrunner]

I have to agree, I've been there enough times through out the years and what used to be slow periods is no longer slow periods. You can only hope to avoid crushing over-crowded situations, like not going on holidays.

We use the crowd control information but our trips are always in the summer so we go with the attitude the crowds are going to be large. Have gotten better over the years of planning a more efficient schedule while at the park. We are better at sequencing our rides in conjunction with fast passes etc. to save time and save our feet and legs. It is said the average person walks about 8 miles a day at Disney (not sure that is accurate but it is a lot of walking) consequently shaving a mile or two off each day helps. Especially for an extended stay.

 

[correcaminos]

We find them to be not very accurate at all even taking into consideration what they are trying to show. There are no real slow times now. Just busier than others

 

[DarthVader]

We use the crowd control information but our trips are always in the summer so we go with the attitude the crowds are going to be large.

I used to use them to plan a trip, selecting a month, or week that would provide us with the best odds of not being busy, but those days are long gone. There's really not a month or week that isn't busy. You can just hope that its not crushingly.

I opted for April vacation, and the crowd calendar isn't that much different then our original timeline, of November. The downside for our April vacation is airline costs are through the roof, but I'm not surprised - been there done that before and I'm accounting for the higher cost.