Here was our overall cost analysis and why I made the decisions I did based on your advice here at this forum (maybe this will help someone else in the future).
Family of 4 (2 adults, 2 kids - 13m, 11f)
$3,000 budget for hotel and parks
5 night stay / 4 parks
Hotel
- Off resort main gate hotel (pros - lower initial cost, very nice breakfast included, access to lower cost fast food options. cons - rental car + parking fees or uber fees and long waits at park close make the cost about the same as staying on resort, without any of the resort perks like picking fast passes 60+ days in advance) - $520 for 5 nights. ~$780 after parking fees & rental car or uber
- All Star Movies (pros - cheapest, renovated rooms, preferred rooms not much more. cons - transportation can be an issue with longer lines and fewer options, not as many amenities) - $808 for 5 nights (preferred room)
- Art of Animation (pros - still a value resort, but some really nice amenities, including the big blue pool, close to the skyliner transport system, better food options. cons - standard rooms come in Little Mermaid only, they are not renovated, and far away from transportation options) - $1084 for 5 nights (standard room)
- Pop Century (pros - renovated rooms with queen beds, close to AoA so you can visit, nicer end of the value resorts, not as much as AoA, still has its own bus systems and skyliner, more food options. cons - theme isn't as nice as ASM) - $915 for 5 nights (standard room)
Decision - Pop Century standard room. Just a little more, with the advantage of dedicated buses, skyliner, renovated rooms, queen beds, more amenities, and more food options, and the experience of being "at disney" for the whole trip. We've done off resort before and it's a pain, especially to leave places like Magic Kingdom and come back later. $915
Park Tickets
- One day per park 4 day tickets (pros - lowest cost, stay at disney the entire time and go to all 4 parks. cons - stuck at the park if lines end up being long. Crap shoot whether or not to use EMHs when staying on resort) - $1,837.96 USD
- Park hopper 4 day tickets (pros - You can park hop, which is especially useful at AK, or on days when MK closes early for special events and likely to be less crowded until MIckey's Christmas party. cons - more expensive, may not be worth the $340 upcharge. Especially not worth it if your kids are little.) - $2,178.76
- One day per park 3 day tickets + 1 day at Universal or Lego Land (pros - Animal kingdom just is not a priority for us. Except for the Lion King show, Everest, and Pandora which we aren't willing to wait 4 hours for, there isn't much there for us. cons - more expensive option) - $1,872.34 USD
- Same as 3 but add park hopper (pros - we could do the most if we keep ourselves on the run going from ride to ride and place to place. cons - exhausting and expensive). $2,100
Decision - One day per park 4 day tickets. We can always add park hopper when we are in the park on the first day if we decide it would be worth it based on wait times. There is no need to spend the money now. Going to Animal Kingdom will give us a chance to spend part of the day at the resort or wandering around Disney Springs. $1837.96
Total: $2752.96 ($250 under budget; but we have flexibility)
Our flights are free using skymiles, and we're putting the tickets on another card for the bonus points