Fun With Numbers: First Six Months 2015 Edition

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
That's what I like to hear. We'll be there 9/13-9/21.

You'll be dealing with some hard-ticket crowds during that time but nothing too bad overall. The day after a halloween party at MK is always busier than the day it closes early. Other then that, it should be as close to slow as slow gets at WDW.....
 

dumboflyer

Well-Known Member
We also love the first full week of December. Awesome time to catch the lull in crowds between Thanksgiving (bad) and Christmas (don't bother). All the Christmas decor is up, MVMCP is in full swing if you so choose, and again, almost no one there.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
We also love the first full week of December. Awesome time to catch the lull in crowds between Thanksgiving (bad) and Christmas (don't bother). All the Christmas decor is up, MVMCP is in full swing if you so choose, and again, almost no one there.

The only real difference is that in December, its mostly Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday (first two weeks) where the crowds are truly dead where in September, you have a solid three uninterrupted weeks of bliss. This is partly due to the final Free Dining offering of the year which only boosts the crowd up to "average".

Either way, you've pointed out some of the best times of the year to go. Summer, major holidays, Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring break are certainly not.
 

OneDNP

Active Member
Phfttt. Going the Tuesday of Halloween week into Jersey week, so expecting a disaster crowd wise. There will be much pool time.
 

Texas84

Well-Known Member
That's some great work. Appreciate it.

I always go in May before school is out and September after Labor Day. We used to do the big family trip early December but that is getting busy now. That has been moved to before Thanksgiving.
 

BernardandBianca

Well-Known Member
Dave, you mentioned "Yes, this is observations of how long people waited in line, but I've got really good indications that its right on the money. It is also the only dataset I have to work with, so we press on." (Didn't want to quote the whole post.)

First, I'd like to thank you for the effort you put into doing this, the results are interesting to look at.

Last (got there quick), is it possible that FP+ is screwing up the numbers? If you're looking at how long people waited in line, then the mess that is FP+ and how they adversely effect the distribution of people in line, causing longer lines at certain attractions and altering the lines between FP and standby at other, could be giving a distorted comparison with past patterns. I understand that your data only begins in CQ4 of 2012, so FP+ may have been around then, but I don't think everything was rolled out fully (with mandatory three fastpasses) until later.
 

epcotWSC

Well-Known Member
IDK, I went to WDW last September and it was quite crowded. Decent waits and the like. It probably wasn't as bad as the middle of the summer, but it was very crowded. We were there for the start of the F&W Festival though, so that could have been a factor. Maybe the dead time is post-Labor Day until the beginning of F&W Festival (which the start can vary throughout September)?
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Dave, you mentioned "Yes, this is observations of how long people waited in line, but I've got really good indications that its right on the money. It is also the only dataset I have to work with, so we press on." (Didn't want to quote the whole post.)

First, I'd like to thank you for the effort you put into doing this, the results are interesting to look at.

Last (got there quick), is it possible that FP+ is screwing up the numbers? If you're looking at how long people waited in line, then the mess that is FP+ and how they adversely effect the distribution of people in line, causing longer lines at certain attractions and altering the lines between FP and standby at other, could be giving a distorted comparison with past patterns. I understand that your data only begins in CQ4 of 2012, so FP+ may have been around then, but I don't think everything was rolled out fully (with mandatory three fastpasses) until later.

The biggest thing that screws with the numbers is park hopping. Like you go to DHS for frozen, TSMM & hope elsewhere... Usually MK.

FP may be... May not be. I really haven't thought about it. Probably a better question for @lentesta and how they calculate things out.

However - same methodology as last year, so I can only assume that FP wouldn't be a factor - it's just that busy.

I'm really just trying to give people an idea of what is going on... And based on the numbers, it's damn busy.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
IDK, I went to WDW last September and it was quite crowded. Decent waits and the like. It probably wasn't as bad as the middle of the summer, but it was very crowded. We were there for the start of the F&W Festival though, so that could have been a factor. Maybe the dead time is post-Labor Day until the beginning of F&W Festival (which the start can vary throughout September)?

About the 10 days surrounding Labor Day. That weekend, the week after and there ya go. Bounces up to about 3-5 in the last week of September
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
The biggest thing that screws with the numbers is park hopping. Like you go to DHS for frozen, TSMM & hope elsewhere... Usually MK.

FP may be... May not be. I really haven't thought about it. Probably a better question for @lentesta and how they calculate things out.

However - same methodology as last year, so I can only assume that FP wouldn't be a factor - it's just that busy.

I'm really just trying to give people an idea of what is going on... And based on the numbers, it's damn busy.
It would be nice to get an equal dataset before and after FP+ then perform a regression analysis and descriptive statistics. Results could devine meaning
 

HauntedMansionFLA

Well-Known Member
Thanks for all of the attention to detail and giving us a outlook of the treads at WDW. I'm kind of curious about going mid January when it looks like the parks flat line after all of the holiday cheer. I might actually attemp a January trip based on your hard work.
 

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