News FastPass+ comes to Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run at Disney's Hollywood Studios

[mikejs78]

And for my hour drive there, that makes perfect sense... but yes, for the price of $100+, I can access those free fastpasses 60 days out assuming I'm fast to the draw and not completing with too many people with longer stays who have an even bigger booking window - you're absolutely right.

For me the initial fast passes are just the tentative plan, not the final one. I'm constantly tweaking and adjusting day of to be able to get in all the rides I want to. And if you know what you're doing, you can pretty much get almost any fast pass day of.

 

[UNCgolf]

People don't wait in a line at Disney based on how long it looks - they usually can't see the queue.. They wait based on the posted wait time (or, if they're smart, the actual wait time that apps like Lines shows). So if the posted wait time is the same as it was before, why would an additional 500-1000 people be waiting? And where do those people come from that weren't there before?

That's how it's supposed to work, but I think you'd be surprised by the number of people that just see the queue isn't backed up all the way to the entrance and go get in line regardless of what the posted wait time is. I've overheard tons of people in line talking about that -- saying things like "it says 70 minutes but look how few people there are; it won't be anywhere near that long". I think a lot of people either don't pay any attention to the posted wait or don't believe it's accurate.

As for the additional people -- I think there are usually more people that want to ride a ride than actually ride it in any given day (for popular rides, that is -- not so much for things like Nemo and Little Mermaid). My guess is that FastPass increases the number of people attempting to ride a ride on any given day, but who knows.

 

[mikejs78]

That's how it's supposed to work, but I think you'd be surprised by the number of people that just see the queue isn't backed up all the way to the entrance and go get in line regardless of what the posted wait time is. I've overheard tons of people in line talking about that -- saying things like "it says 70 minutes but look how few people there are; it won't be anywhere near that long". I think a lot of people either don't pay any attention to the posted wait or don't believe it's accurate.

As for the additional people -- I think there are usually more people that want to ride a ride than actually ride it in any given day (for popular rides, that is -- not so much for things like Nemo and Little Mermaid). My guess is that FastPass increases the number of people attempting to ride a ride on any given day, but who knows.

Maybe, and those are all decent hypothesis. We will see in less than a month.

 

[MrPromey]

That's how it's supposed to work, but I think you'd be surprised by the number of people that just see the queue isn't backed up all the way to the entrance and go get in line regardless of what the posted wait time is. I've overheard tons of people in line talking about that -- saying things like "it says 70 minutes but look how few people there are; it won't be anywhere near that long". I think a lot of people either don't pay any attention to the posted wait or don't believe it's accurate.

Or maybe it's what they're conditioned to think after seeing lines for the popular ones routinely spilling outside of their normal queue areas these days - things like FOP, SDD, Frozen, 7DMT, heck it's not unheard of even at things like ToT, SM, TM.... TTA(Peoplemover).

Regardless of if FP+ is a cause or a symptom, I think we can all agree that there is a severe capacity issue at WDW when it comes to attractions most people have any interest in.

That's to be expected after a decade+ of hotel and vacation club additions along with heavy marketing that the parks have not been keeping pace with.

Hopefully, as the new stuff being built comes online both at HS and the other parks, some of that improves at least a little.

As a 30 day out FP booker, the MK is the only park that consistently has good options (where two of the three don't feel like throwaway choices) and that has to change if they expect to spread out crowds more over the other three parks in coming years.

 

[mikejs78]

Or maybe it's what they're conditioned to think after seeing lines for the popular ones routinely spilling outside of their normal queue areas these days - things like FOP, SDD, Frozen, 7DMT, heck it's not unheard of even at things like ToT, SM, TM.... TTA(Peoplemover).

Regardless of if FP+ is a cause or a symptom, I think we can all agree that there is a severe capacity issue at WDW when it comes to attractions most people have any interest in.

That's to be expected after a decade plus of hotel and vacation club additions along with heavy marketing that the parks have not been keeping pace with. Hopefully, as the new stuff being built comes on line both at HS and the other parks, some of that improves at least a little.

As a 30 day out FP booker, the MK is the only park that consistently has good options (where two of the three don't feel like throwaway choices) and that has to change if they expect to spread out crowds more over the other three parks in coming years.

I'm curious at what the FastPass situation will look like a year from now. Once I add in runaway railway and Rise of the Resistance, there's going to be a lot of extra fast pass capacity compared to what's there now. Other than rise, I wonder if it'll be hard to get fast passes for the other attractions.

 

[flynnibus]

People don't wait in a line at Disney based on how long it looks - they usually can't see the queue.. They wait based on the posted wait time (or, if they're smart, the actual wait time that apps like Lines shows). So if the posted wait time is the same as it was before, why would an additional 500-1000 people be waiting? And where do those people come from that weren't there before?

The problem with both your arguments is you assume there is this fixed number you are starting with. The model should not based on a fixed population, but rather the idea of potential riders, filtered by the ideas of interest, then filtered by tolerance.

For headliners with wide appeal.. you can streamline and assume there will always be a willing supply of riders who want to ride. But why don't lines grow endlessly? Because people OPT to enter a line... for attractions they rarely are forced to enter a line. So the choice to enter a line is usually regulated by 'wait tolerance'.

Waits are usually capped by people's tolerance for waits. The problem is that is not a static value, but instead a formula in itself driven by situational issues (such as where they are in their vacation, the park's overall conditions, time of day, weather, other attraction availability, etc). So its hard to model with precision, but when you talk in more generalities... you can make large chunk assumptions based on past observations.

The next challenge is the whole system is a feedback loop. Interest is not static, but can be driven by lines in itself. When someone knows something is normally an hour, and sees it as 15mins.. they will create a new surge of demand as people look to capitalize on the opportunity. The demand and tolerance are inputs to each other. For instance, maybe people normally say they won't wait more than 60mins.. but if they know an attraction is normally 3hrs... they will adjust their tolerances as an exception, etc.

This is why most FP discussions break down into fist fights.. most people latch onto one or two factors and don't embrace that the reality is far far more complex. Modeling the guest behavior becomes a very complicated simulation to do it accurately. But instead for these kinds of discussions it should just be kept super simple... wait tolerance as a generality and if there is excess demand for the attraction.

Most Disney guests are conditioned that 30-60mins waits are normal. FP+ reservations are generally maxxed out for headliners and so there should be ample demand for standby lines.

You may argue 'well more people don't magically want to ride...' - that is true in an absolute.. but in a park setting, 'opportunity' creates demand too. If all the other headliners are 60-90s.. and this one is only 20mins... it will create demand that will increase it's total rider count. Guests seek out a short line because 'its worth it for a 20min wait...'

 

[mikejs78]

The problem with both your arguments is you assume there is this fixed number you are starting with. The model should not based on a fixed population, but rather the idea of potential riders, filtered by the ideas of interest, then filtered by tolerance.

For headliners with wide appeal.. you can streamline and assume there will always be a willing supply of riders who want to ride. But why don't lines grow endlessly? Because people OPT to enter a line... for attractions they rarely are forced to enter a line. So the choice to enter a line is usually regulated by 'wait tolerance'.

Waits are usually capped by people's tolerance for waits. The problem is that is not a static value, but instead a formula in itself driven by situational issues (such as where they are in their vacation, the park's overall conditions, time of day, weather, other attraction availability, etc). So its hard to model with precision, but when you talk in more generalities... you can make large chunk assumptions based on past observations.

The next challenge is the whole system is a feedback loop. Interest is not static, but can be driven by lines in itself. When someone knows something is normally an hour, and sees it as 15mins.. they will create a new surge of demand as people look to capitalize on the opportunity. The demand and tolerance are inputs to each other. For instance, maybe people normally say they won't wait more than 60mins.. but if they know an attraction is normally 3hrs... they will adjust their tolerances as an exception, etc.

This is why most FP discussions break down into fist fights.. most people latch onto one or two factors and don't embrace that the reality is far far more complex. Modeling the guest behavior becomes a very complicated simulation to do it accurately. But instead for these kinds of discussions it should just be kept super simple... wait tolerance as a generality and if there is excess demand for the attraction.

Most Disney guests are conditioned that 30-60mins waits are normal. FP+ reservations are generally maxxed out for headliners and so there should be ample demand for standby lines.

You may argue 'well more people don't magically want to ride...' - that is true in an absolute.. but in a park setting, 'opportunity' creates demand too. If all the other headliners are 60-90s.. and this one is only 20mins... it will create demand that will increase it's total rider count. Guests seek out a short line because 'its worth it for a 20min wait...'

Sure, I don't disagree with anything you said, but when discussing models it's appropriate to focus on singular aspects of those models at any one time in order to have any kind of discussion on them.

But then I think you make my point for me. Millennium Falcon has generally had lines in the 60-90 minute range. Now, there's varience in that but for the sake of argument, let's assume thats the average. Let's say a ride capacity of 1500 (Its a little higher if I recall, but for sake of but let's use 1500 for the sake of simplified Math). So that means at any given time there are 1500-2250 people in line, out of a park that averages 30k people / day. With park hours of 7AM to 8 PM, that's about 20k out of the 30k who will be able to ride. Given height requirements, etc, that seems reasonable.

Now, let's say FP is added to serve 1000 pph leaving 500 pph for standby. Again, the wait time will still be 60-90 min because the number of people going through won't change.

Now you mention tolerance. That's true. But is tolerance suddenly going to change because of FP? If current standby has a tolerance of 60-90 min, is it suddenly going to surge to 120 min because FP is introduced? Or, will the same factors play into tolerance with FP that existed without it?

Again, we will see. We will have a good measure in a month and we can hopefully, finally put this argument to bed once and for all.

 

[flynnibus]

Now, let's say FP is added to serve 1000 pph leaving 500 pph for standby. Again, the wait time will still be 60-90 min because the number of people going through won't change.

Now you mention tolerance. That's true. But is tolerance suddenly going to change because of FP? If current standby has a tolerance of 60-90 min, is it suddenly going to surge to 120 min because FP is introduced? Or, will the same factors play into tolerance with FP that existed without it?

Two things happen... if we keep things simple and take your 1500 people, and assume 1000 get absorbed by FP. That means only 500 in standby. That is 2hrs of standby time (assuming 3/4 of capacity goes to FP.. you get 250pph standby).

And there is your problem.. for those same 500 people to ride, the standby wait has already increased. Now we would have to ask 'would they bother waiting 2hrs?' and if those same 500 would actually queue up. And that's where the feedback loops and tolerances come into play. The biggest factor being 'this is our only way' and if it's something they really want to ride.. they'll wait.

You ask "But is tolerance suddenly going to change because of FP?" - It plays a huge factor. Because if you have a FP or know you will get one... it will potentially really undercut tolerance. But when FPs are scarse... guests know they have no alternative but to accept the waits as they are with no alternative. If they want to ride, they either increase their tolerance, or try to find another time where waiits are within their tolerance. But we know for the majority of the day, you can't escape the waits.. so if they want to ride... they have to be more tolerant. And that's where the 'is this ride worth XX minutes' comes into play.

FP works to reduce tolerance in theory... but everyone without a FP doesn't have a say in if the FP tax should be there or not. So they have to accept it and decide if the new normal is tolerable or not.

 

[mikejs78]

Two things happen... if we keep things simple and take your 1500 people, and assume 1000 get absorbed by FP. That means only 500 in standby. That is 2hrs of standby time (assuming 3/4 of capacity goes to FP.. you get 250pph standby).

And there is your problem.. for those same 500 people to ride, the standby wait has already increased. Now we would have to ask 'would they bother waiting 2hrs?' and if those same 500 would actually queue up. And that's where the feedback loops and tolerances come into play. The biggest factor being 'this is our only way' and if it's something they really want to ride.. they'll wait.

You ask "But is tolerance suddenly going to change because of FP?" - It plays a huge factor. Because if you have a FP or know you will get one... it will potentially really undercut tolerance. But when FPs are scarse... guests know they have no alternative but to accept the waits as they are with no alternative. If they want to ride, they either increase their tolerance, or try to find another time where waiits are within their tolerance. But we know for the majority of the day, you can't escape the waits.. so if they want to ride... they have to be more tolerant. And that's where the 'is this ride worth XX minutes' comes into play.

FP works to reduce tolerance in theory... but everyone without a FP doesn't have a say in if the FP tax should be there or not. So they have to accept it and decide if the new normal is tolerable or not.

In my model I was assuming 1000 pph allocated to FP. If you assume 75%, then the number would be more like 375 people in standby and 1125 in FO. Line still an hour, not two.

Do you have any evidence to back up your tolerance theory? In regards to the only real studies that have been done on the subject, standby wait times stayed relatively static (+/- 11 minutes, depending on the attraction)... That was from 2014 though, and like I said, it will be great to get a fresh perspective.

 

[flynnibus]

In my model I was assuming 1000 pph allocated to FP. If you assume 75%, then the number would be more like 375 people in standby and 1125 in FO. Line still an hour, not two.

Your postulation is difficult because you don't know how many actually have FPs. You can say there is 1125pph in FP, and 375pph in standby.. but you started with a pool of 1500-2250 people. How many had FPs? How many are forced to go into the standby line?

The availability of FP capacity doesn't mean the people in front of the attraction right now can use it. The whole concept of FP skews the population question because by design it's shifting demand.

All we do know is the standby line is now moving at 1/4 the speed it was before.. so it only takes 1/4 the people to get the same wait time you had before. Did 75% of people really get FPs for another time? And hence are satisified to come back later.. or is there a significant percentage of people who do not, and now need to decide if standby is worth it.. and then we get the feedback loop over if someone 'enters the queue' or not.

Do you have any evidence to back up your tolerance theory? In regards to the only real studies that have been done on the subject, standby wait times stayed relatively static (+/- 11 minutes, depending on the attraction)... That was from 2014 though, and like I said, it will be great to get a fresh perspective.

Just my engineering background and systems education. It's all queuing theory - but you are mixing in psychology here as well. That's why it's not just a math problem... but a behavioral issue.. like a lot of industrial engineering devolves to. The pieces are human.. so you have to model what drives them and the choices they make. They aren't just marbles rolling down a rail.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I just got an alert that Disney is now offering 20% off all hotels rooms through April 27th. If Disney is having occupancy issues, wouldn't it make sense to have a perk available to their hotel guests to ride rise of the resistance? Why wouldn't Disney make morning EMH for 1 hour, 2 days a week and offer boarding groups to only hotel guests? During the AP blackout period, boarding groups were readily available even 2 hours after the park opened. Disney could release only half of their BG inventory and it would satisfy both hotel and day guests.

Disney's only 'problems' are with their pricier rooms. For this offer, the only value rooms left are at All Star Sports. Then it's moderate and deluxe rooms they're trying to sell out. At those price points, most people choose cheaper non-Disney accommodations. This means their values are mostly sold out. They have no problem filling up their own rooms. The discounts provided to fill the remaining moderate and deluxe are easy to give out since they're marked up so terribly high.

Disney doesn't need to use BGs to entice people to their resorts. Besides, with the ride being touchy, it would be a really bad idea to sell the idea that guests can ride this one ride, which Disney can't guarantee at this point to anyone.

Sorted low to high...

 

[MrPromey]

I'm curious at what the FastPass situation will look like a year from now. Once I add in runaway railway and Rise of the Resistance, there's going to be a lot of extra fast pass capacity compared to what's there now. Other than rise, I wonder if it'll be hard to get fast passes for the other attractions.

It all depends. If Disney keeps their marketing claws out of pushing the new offerings too much, it might work out. Otherwise, we can expect new records for crowds to come right in and fill up all that capacity.

I recall them running a Super Bowl add to market the addition of Toy Story Land (with it's two new non-e-tickt attractions) which to me, left the impression that there was a lot more new stuff to see and do with this addition than there was/is.

It really depends on if they see attendance and capacity as an actual problem or not. I'm not convinced they do since the changes to Epcot didn't seem to really come into full swing until they appeared to notice a softening in attendance at that park.

It also seems like the replacement stuff (like MRR) will have lower capacity than what was there before them so really, it's anybody's guess but I'd say that it's in Disney's hands to manage with how they advertise and offer deals to either push attendance or not.

Fingers crossed, I guess.

 

[TheDuke]

In addition to the FP debate the new tiering system is just a bad idea too. My brother checked and apparently now at the 30 day mark you can't get either of the tier 1's or Midway Mania, and RnRC and ToT are both only available at night. Should have at least kept Midway Mania as a tier 1, if not RnRC too. HS doesn't have the large number of mid level rides that MK does so they need a strict tiering system.

 

[mikejs78]

In addition to the FP debate the new tiering system is just a bad idea too. My brother checked and apparently now at the 30 day mark you can't get either of the tier 1's or Midway Mania, and RnRC and ToT are both only available at night. Should have at least kept Midway Mania as a tier 1, if not RnRC too. HS doesn't have the large number of mid level rides that MK does so they need a strict tiering system.

I prefer this new tiering system. The old one was a disaster. Having most rides on tier 1 made no sense.

 

[rljackson]

My family are within our 60 day window and already had fast passes selected. By the time I heard this all of the passes were gone. I feel like we really got shafted here and wonder if we will get to ride without a very long wait now. I wish they would have made the change greater than 60 days out to give all guests a chance to get the passes.

 

[AugieMorosco]

My family are within our 60 day window and already had fast passes selected. By the time I heard this all of the passes were gone. I feel like we really got shafted here and wonder if we will get to ride without a very long wait now. I wish they would have made the change greater than 60 days out to give all guests a chance to get the passes.

I love the tier reset and I'm sure Disney has their reasons for making these changes effective within a 60 day window, but that's so unfortunate. Our trip is July 7-16 and I'm afraid the same thing might happen. With the MMRR opening in March and the TBD on Remy in EPCOT, I could see changes to tiers, fp+, boarding groups, standby lines in May or June, inside of our 60 day window. Hope your trip ends up being great!

 

[natatomic]

No, I'm talking about the average standby wait time. Analysis done by @lentesta's team at the time FP was first introduced showed little impact to standby wait times. Not total average wait time. Again, if you have 2000 people who want to ride, and no FP, all 2000 will ride in about an hour. If you have the same 2000 people who want to ride, but 1500 have FPs, it will still take the remaining 500 people in the standby line an hour - but there will only be 500 people in standby. Thus line size will decrease dramatically but wait time will be about the same.

Now, as I said, I could very well be wrong. But I'll let the data determine that and look forward to any analysis done by @lentesta and his team once we have enough dates to compare. The period from Feb 19 until Runaway Railroad opens will be quite interesting to watch.


It doesn't make your wait longer because without FO, many of those FP people would already be in the standby line.


It's logistically a lot more complicated to run and manage FP, and the daily boarding groups (which they assumed would be needed for Falcon, but weren't) are easier to manage on a day to day basis as they can easily adjust capacity as needed. Not knowing reliability of the ride probably had a lot to do with it.

Except that rides that once never had fast pass – Pirates of the Caribbean, spaceship Earth, haunted mansion, etc. - now seem to all have constant wait times Of at least half an hour, often even upwards of an hour or more! Whereas before fastpass was introduced for these rides, The wait times were almost always 10 to 15 minutes.
The problem with fast pass, is that it allows everyone to be in two lines at once. You’re in a “virtual queue“ for the ride you have a fast pass for, as well as the ride you’re in the physical line for. back when you could only wait in one line at a time, you had to pick and choose which rides were not important and let you skip. Now that people have fastpass, they can wait in line for rides they would have otherwise skipped, while they wait in the “virtual line“ for the ride they have the fast pass for. Yes, all rides have a finite capacity, but rides that used to not always have that capacity met, are now having that capacity met much more frequently because people (who know how to use the FP system to their greatest advantage) are able to ride more rides at the expense of making the lines everywhere longer for those in standby (and those who aren’t at using the FP system are are getting FPs for things like Tough to Be a Bug and Indiana Jones).

 

[mikejs78]

Except that rides that once never had fast pass – Pirates of the Caribbean, spaceship Earth, haunted mansion, etc. - now seem to all have constant wait times Of at least half an hour, often even upwards of an hour or more! Whereas before fastpass was introduced for these rides, The wait times were almost always 10 to 15 minutes.

This isn't due to FP. It's due to the fact that many, many more people are visiting the park now than were visiting the park 15 years ago.

The problem with fast pass, is that it allows everyone to be in two lines at once.

This is a fallicy that keeps getting repeated. Since everyone has access to the system,.it evens itself out. It allows everyone to get more done in one day than they otherwise would because it smooths out the wait times across the board, and allows people three attractions where they don't have to wait in line. They can use that time for more attractions, watch a parade, done, shop, or just enjoy the park. But mathematically the effect of "two lines" doesn't do anything because everyone has it.

I'll say it again. Some rides increasd from FP (pirates shower an average wait time increase of +9 minutes from before/after FP) while others decreased (Space Mountain saw an average decrease of 11 minutes). All in all, most attractions stayed the same.

 

[natatomic]

I'll say it again. Some rides increasd from FP (pirates shower an average wait time increase of +9 minutes from before/after FP) while others decreased (Space Mountain saw an average decrease of 11 minutes). All in all, most attractions stayed the same.

Just curious, did they study this back when FPs first started 20ish years ago, or when they rolled over the FP+ a few years ago?

 

[dr_seeker]

Just curious, did they study this back when FPs first started 20ish years ago, or when they rolled over the FP+ a few years ago?

Touring Plans did a study comparing wait times for all rides before/after FP+. Spaceship Earth, Pirates, and other rides that got FP like Journey Into Imagination or rides that have more people using FP like DINOSAUR went up significantly.