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Eisner

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
Well I guess we will wait and see. Disney is at 150 today, you;re predicting it's going to crash by 50%. my crystal ball doesn't see that happening in the next 5-10 years (but it's been wrong before) if that happens the loyal customer ain't going to effect the parks because the economy will have tank such that not even they will be able to go.
Now you also must admit that folks have been predicting this since ticket prices hit 100 bucks and how the average Joe is going to stop going. That has not happened.

during the great recession I think it slide about 25%

I have to take your word on Iger. he's doesn't play into my satisfaction of my vacations.

I really wonder outside if this bubble how much Iger really matters to the wdw guest.
Disney stock was $32 in January of 2008...it was $15.30 in March of 2009.

Something similar happened in 2002....and 92....and 76....etc etc etc.

See if you can find the pattern?🤪



“But that can’t happen NOW...they have marvel!”

Movies are 10% of their portfolio...consumer products maybe 15?

Where’s the bulk? 70% in parks and television - still.

Guess what gets crushed in recessions?

Past is prologue.

I don’t want to jack this with a dissertation...but what the current management does differently is they are primed to bail out at the first sign of trouble. Parachutes on.

The “name” doesn’t have the weight it did...even as compared to Eisner.
 

MMFanCipher

Well-Known Member
I remember reading about Disneyland and Walt was talking to someone about how much to sell an item for. The person
wanted to sell it for x and Disney said no sell it for y. The person said that that didn't cover the cost of production. Walt said You know, we don't have to make a profit on everything. That attitude is what I find Lacking in the current leadership. Just my opinion.
 

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
AAAahh Iger is on tv now on Amanpour & Co. touting his new books and how great it is to work for Disney. It's a replay from September. lol
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
It affects the parks in a massive way during down economic times even when they DID hedge and not tick people off.

By attacking the safety net, it’s near impossible to be able to protect the parks from even greater strife.
The end is a stock market decline/crash. Which is 100% certain to happen.

We just don’t know the date. Most of the larger economic countries are already in recession.

When that comes stateside - and it’s a miracle it hasn’t in funny money times already - Disney will lose half their stock value (minimum) and the parks will get hammered.

Especially outside of the DVC safety blanket in Florida.

A 30% coupon isn’t gonna cut it. I’ve said this before...I’ll leave it at that and watch.

I’m more sure of this than some of the “facts” that I know about Disney.

This is about human psychology. People are predictable...and once you see their motives and understand their backgrounds...it’s an open book.

Iger is an open book.
I hope DIS declines 50% so I can buy more shares and watch it go to new all time highs, just like the market always does after corrections, recessions, and bear markets. That’s what markets do. It says less about individual companies and more about overall sentiment. Everything went down in 2008...even great companies like Disney. That was a generational buying opportunity.

You're that guy sitting on the sidelines forever while everyone gets rich because the next downturn is "right around the corner." Good. Let it happen and we can add more to our positions.

Trouble is, you have no idea when that will come. So many predicted it 30% lower.

Disney is a fantastic business with great management that will be around for the long term. You have to start going down the list pretty far to worry about Disney's valuation and/or long term business model.

Disney Parks were still extremely profitable even at the worst point in the great recession and have grown operating income every quarter since then. Attendance was still strong and also increased nearly every year. Had you bought DIS then, I doubt you'd be such a pessimist now.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
I hope DIS declines 50% so I can buy more shares and watch it go to new all time highs, just like the market always does after corrections, recessions, and bear markets.

You're that guy sitting on the sidelines forever while everyone gets rich because the next downturn is "right around the corner." Good. Let it happen and we can add more to our positions.

Trouble is, you have no idea when that will come. So many predicted it 30% lower.

Disney is a fantastic business with great management that will be around for the long term. You have to start going down the list pretty far to worry about Disney's valuation and/or long term business model.

Disney Parks were still extremely profitable even at the worst point in the great recession and have grown operating income every quarter since then. Attendance was still strong and also increased nearly every year. Had you bought DIS then, I doubt you'd be such a pessimist now.
You sound like somebody who attempts to disguise his fandom as wisdom...

I’m not predicting that Disney will go belly up...far from it. It’s resiliency to endure and respond is one of its most attractive features from a business and a fan perspective.

But she still gets racked when the iceberg gets hit. There’s no honest way to predict that WON’T happen again.

As you said...there is an opportunity to ride that wave back to the top. I paid $11.60 for some Disney stock that is in there...somewhere. Wish I had more.

But I want responsible stewardship. The best way to do that is longterm price control. With disney, you want it to be an “exclusive” price level that is just above “attainable” to most.

What they have done since the last recession...which was days short of complete meltdown (read about it)...is unprecedented.

How would Iger respond when it happens?

He WONT. He’ll be gone at the first sign of trouble.

That is “unprecedented” in corporate history.
 

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
You sound like somebody who attempts to disguise his fandom as wisdom...

I’m not predicting that Disney will go belly up...far from it. It’s resiliency to endure and respond is one of its most attractive features from a business and a fan perspective.

But she still gets racked when the iceberg gets hit. There’s no honest way to predict that WON’T happen again.

As you said...there is an opportunity to ride that wave back to the top. I paid $11.60 for some Disney stock that is in there...somewhere. Wish I had more.

But I want responsible stewardship. The best way to do that is longterm price control. With disney, you want it to be an “exclusive” price level that is just above “attainable” to most.

What they have done since the last recession...which was days short of complete meltdown (read about it)...is unprecedented.

How would Iger respond when it happens?

He WONT. He’ll be gone at the first sign of trouble.

That is “unprecedented” in corporate history.
???
You sound like somebody who attempts to disguise his fandom as wisdom...

I’m not predicting that Disney will go belly up...far from it. It’s resiliency to endure and respond is one of its most attractive features from a business and a fan perspective.

But she still gets racked when the iceberg gets hit. There’s no honest way to predict that WON’T happen again.

As you said...there is an opportunity to ride that wave back to the top. I paid $11.60 for some Disney stock that is in there...somewhere. Wish I had more.

But I want responsible stewardship. The best way to do that is longterm price control. With disney, you want it to be an “exclusive” price level that is just above “attainable” to most.

What they have done since the last recession...which was days short of complete meltdown (read about it)...is unprecedented.

How would Iger respond when it happens?


That is “unprecedented” in corporate history.

In Disney history?? because it's certainly not unprecedented in corporate history. companies get racked all the time. lol anyone remember new coke?? and their ceo's typically collect big fat golden parachutes when they skedaddle. Heck at least Iger earned his, I hate when the company tanks and the ceo still collects.

Now you're right it's a bit off topic. I don't know much about Eisner so I can't say if he was good or bad, I do believe that you guys feel that Iger has been bad for the parks.

I think the "loyal fan base" has morphed and will morph again. What they have done since the last recession has built a damn profitable business . That is a good thing, I'm sure not everyone is going to like it but again we'll have to see how these changes play out. right now sorry I just don't see some small loyal fan base as tipping the balance.
Lastly, are we so sure that the loyal fan base is leaving?? My sampling pool is small but the dvc'era I know are still happily planning vacations and still buying AP's. Have their vacations changed? Sure. Have they stopped going?? No
lol sorry for the disjointed post, I'm on a pad and it's hard to type.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
???



In Disney history?? because it's certainly not unprecedented in corporate history. companies get racked all the time. lol anyone remember new coke?? and their ceo's typically collect big fat golden parachutes when they skedaddle. Heck at least Iger earned his, I hate when the company tanks and the ceo still collects.

Now you're right it's a bit off topic. I don't know much about Eisner so I can't say if he was good or bad, I do believe that you guys feel that Iger has been bad for the parks.

I think the "loyal fan base" has morphed and will morph again. What they have done since the last recession has built a damn profitable business . That is a good thing, I'm sure not everyone is going to like it but again we'll have to see how these changes play out. right now sorry I just don't see some small loyal fan base as tipping the balance.
Lastly, are we so sure that the loyal fan base is leaving?? My sampling pool is small but the dvc'era I know are still happily planning vacations and still buying AP's. Have their vacations changed? Sure. Have they stopped going?? No
lol sorry for the disjointed post, I'm on a pad and it's hard to type.
Yes...just disney. Even Eisner saw Disney lasting forever as part of “him”...he’s a creative guy.
Iger is not...he’s a Hollywood suit.

Upthread, somebody said Iger was “eisners handpicked successor”
That literally can’t be farther from the truth. Iger was a bland fallback from roy’s uprising. Plain and simple.

And as you know...I’m not a novice in either Disney history nor insight into Disney market, business strategies or operations.

Disney clientele is a lot more than DVCs. That’s maybe 25% on a given day in Orlando...far fewer everywhere else.

Travel goes with the economy - believe it or not. First to fall, last to rise.

I’ve watched as warning signs have quietly compiled.

We’ll see what happens.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
It affects the parks in a massive way during down economic times even when they DID hedge and not tick people off.

By attacking the safety net, it’s near impossible to be able to protect the parks from even greater strife.
The end is a stock market decline/crash. Which is 100% certain to happen.

We just don’t know the date. Most of the larger economic countries are already in recession.

When that comes stateside - and it’s a miracle it hasn’t in funny money times already - Disney will lose half their stock value (minimum) and the parks will get hammered.

Especially outside of the DVC safety blanket in Florida.

A 30% coupon isn’t gonna cut it. I’ve said this before...I’ll leave it at that and watch.

I’m more sure of this than some of the “facts” that I know about Disney.

This is about human psychology. People are predictable...and once you see their motives and understand their backgrounds...it’s an open book.

Iger is an open book.
A stock market crash would hurt everyone, that’s a worse case scenario, perhaps in that case no one would have the disposable cash to vacation at a Disneypark but we have seen Disney bounce back from 911 and the mini crash In 2009 when Disney stock was $17

Something catastrophic has to happen for Disney to feel anything in my opinion.
 

larryz

Disneyphilus Smirkatious
Premium Member
I hope DIS declines 50% so I can buy more shares and watch it go to new all time highs, just like the market always does after corrections, recessions, and bear markets. That’s what markets do. It says less about individual companies and more about overall sentiment. Everything went down in 2008...even great companies like Disney. That was a generational buying opportunity.

You're that guy sitting on the sidelines forever while everyone gets rich because the next downturn is "right around the corner." Good. Let it happen and we can add more to our positions.

Trouble is, you have no idea when that will come. So many predicted it 30% lower.

Disney is a fantastic business with great management that will be around for the long term. You have to start going down the list pretty far to worry about Disney's valuation and/or long term business model.

Disney Parks were still extremely profitable even at the worst point in the great recession and have grown operating income every quarter since then. Attendance was still strong and also increased nearly every year. Had you bought DIS then, I doubt you'd be such a pessimist now.
Well, I'm waiting for the animated version of The Black Swan...
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
A stock market crash would hurt everyone, that’s a worse case scenario, perhaps in that case no one would have the disposable cash to vacation at a Disneypark but we have seen Disney bounce back from 911 and the mini crash In 2009 when Disney stock was $17

Something catastrophic has to happen for Disney to feel anything in my opinion.
It’s happened every time a greater economic decline has happened. Every single one.

The one caveat is that the tech crash effect at Disney was delayed about a year because they had expertly marketed the 2000 in Orlando...people had committed (celebrate the future, Hand in hand 🎶)...and they waited till EARLY 2001 to drop out of the travel market there...

There is no “insulation” to guard against that...but the big difference is that they used to be more measured in their approach on pricing and appealing to a broader market...much of which was to guard against recessions. The management used to have a “we’re making plenty” instinct that is pretty much gone.

You see it every 3 months: “attendance was “strong” - meaning down - while revenues were up”

Yay! Another $0.05 on the ticker!

But that cannot continue forever.

There’s ALOT of vacation club. But not that many.
 

MrHappy

Well-Known Member
Movies are 10% of their portfolio...consumer products maybe 15?

Where’s the bulk? 70% in parks and television - still.

Guess what gets crushed in recessions?
Where'd you get these figures or more like when? Disney+ should get separated out into a revenue stream of its own. I would also imagine there's other streams not accounted for in your business unit pie chart. Not saying they aren't susceptible to a crash, but they are much more diversified than in the past.
 

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
It’s happened every time a greater economic decline has happened. Every single one.

The one caveat is that the tech crash effect at Disney was delayed about a year because they had expertly marketed the 2000 in Orlando...people had committed (celebrate the future, Hand in hand 🎶)...and they waited till EARLY 2001 to drop out of the travel market there...

There is no “insulation” to guard against that...but the big difference is that they used to be more measured in their approach on pricing and appealing to a broader market...much of which was to guard against recessions. The management used to have a “we’re making plenty” instinct that is pretty much gone.

You see it every 3 months: “attendance was “strong” - meaning down - while revenues were up”

Yay! Another $0.05 on the ticker!

But that cannot continue forever.

There’s ALOT of vacation club. But not that many.
Let's say you are 100% correct and it cannot continue forever, let's look at the worst case scenario. lets say there is a catastrophic economic crash. I'm firmly with others that say if the "you know what" hits the fan that bad, Disney is going to be the least of anyone's problem. so at that point who cares.
Next if what everyone here complains about and disney is truly for the rich, then an economic crash will be weathered by those not affected by it.

Travel industry is a disposable income thing, and in a market crash, the so called loyal customer is going to do the same thing the once in a life timer does, he's going to duck and cover and keep his cash firmly in the bank.

You are right some things can't go on forever but companies have and do change course. I agree that the "we're making Plenty" style of business is gone, pretty much from every major corporation. I know many folks here poo-poo the "it's a business" line but as long as folks hold onto what I call the "walt fantasy" it will lead to disappointment. we're making plenty is a small business option. Disney left that model long ago and when you've got millions of stockholders, unfortunately you are beholden to them.

But I also think that the "loyal customer" model is also dead. again whether we like it or not, I feel (and I could be totally wrong) that Disney can absolutely succeed without the so called "loyal" customer. I'm not even sure what or who that is in today's market.
The old "loyal" customer is being happily replaced.

Iger will go and they will replace him with someone else but whomever they get, they will have to answer to the bottom line. Again I could be off but IMO there is no going back, the idyllic, halcyon days of the past are done. In no near future do I see them coming back.

Lastly, why do folks feel that the masses no longer like Disneyworld?
 
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Lilofan

Well-Known Member
HKDL is reporting weekday attendance is down 90% due to the ongoing violent protests and showdown between the protestors and police. Can you imagine if a drop like this happened at WDW? And how it affects Orlando and FL in general since tourism is the #1 industry in the state. If this happened , Iger and Chapek would be in full panic mode and layoffs would follow.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
Where'd you get these figures or more like when? Disney+ should get separated out into a revenue stream of its own. I would also imagine there's other streams not accounted for in your business unit pie chart. Not saying they aren't susceptible to a crash, but they are much more diversified than in the past.
They’re a little dated...so they are shifting away from cable revenues. But that’s generally still in the ballpark.

Disney fans don’t want to accept that the “value” has been gleaned mostly off tv ads since 1995...but that is how it went.

They are in transition now. The old ways are broken to a certain extent.

The huge price hikes aren’t to create “luxury” in the parks...it’s cause they needed the cash to boost stock.

But even though their sales are well ahead of projections - they aren’t making anything off + yet. Startup is huge. It will take time.

Anyway you slice it though, a travel bust will cut parks and that will crush Disney’s stock...if and when
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
HKDL is reporting weekday attendance is down 90% due to the ongoing violent protests and showdown between the protestors and police. Can you imagine if a drop like this happened at WDW? And how it affects Orlando and FL in general since tourism is the #1 industry in the state. If this happened , Iger and Chapek would be in full panic mode and layoffs would follow.
A 5% drop in attendance or revenue in Orlando is viewed internally as “catastrophic”

It’s the engine. People don’t realize it’s actual importance. That’s why Iger price tinkering is “ill advised” to say the least
 
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