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Don't hate me but I've never been crazy about ET. It's set in the 1980's using 1950's ride technology. With space aliens, I should be wowed by the ride system, not wondering if ET looks more dated than Peter Pan.
I had read somewhere (though probably incorrectly) that Steven Speilberg's newest contract will not allow USO to change out this ride.
One of the reasons it took so long to keep Steven was because they had closed down ET in Japan and Hollywood, and he did not want to sign a continuation of his contract without the agreement of Orlando's ET staying. But again, the interenet is not the best source of information always.
It needs a massive refurb, but it's still a strong attraction. If I had to choose one of the original attractions to still be around...well, it'd be a tough choice between this and King Kong. You truly ride the movies more than any of the other current USF attractions
I think it's safe for a good number of years. There seems to be focus on replacing other attractions before ET(terminator 2 3-D and Shrek 4-D), and I don't even know what could be built in its place that would make a good replacement.