DVC Price Fluctuations Trends

WDWFigment

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I've been watching DVC prices for SSR (which, according to my math, is the best long term value despite costing more than OKW since it has the lowest per point dues--is this a correct analysis?) for about the last year, and haven't really picked up on and pricing trends--are there?

I was hoping that maybe the prices would go down with the current economic situation, but I've learned in my Property class that time shares are known for not reflecting lulls in the economy, as people consider them a good investment (despite this not being true) and a way to lock in their vacations (which they are reluctant to part with).

Anyway--are there any trends that I'm missing? I'd like to avoid financing, (which means I'll be waiting a couple of years to buy) but if there are benefits of financing now as opposed to buying outright later, I may consider it.

As far as trends, I mean, are there any better times of year to buy than others? Do prices receive a bump (or do they go down?) when new properties are announced? Has the Hawaii announcement influenced pricing? Will the inevitable announcement of the Kingdom Tower at the Contemporary?

Any insight would be greatly appreciated!
 
DVC Mike

DVC Mike

Well-Known Member
As far as purchasing direct from DVC, the price just keeps going up and up (even right after 9/11). There is a history of DVC pricing available at: http://www.mouseowners.com/content/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=197&Itemid=140

While point prices only go up, the incentives offered by DVC change over time. I don't think you can tell what time of year the incentives will be better than other times.

As for the overall best deal, I would say purchasing SSR offers the "best deal". Just be aware of the 11-mo home priority booking period and don't purchase SSR expecting to stay at BCV, VWL or BWV most of the time.

Now, resale pricing may be impacted by the current economy. If more people have to sell because of the ecomony and there isn't as much demand, resale prices could dip (I think we've already seen a bit of this). The resale prices also depend on how often Disney executes ROFR.
 
scorp111

scorp111

Well-Known Member
The only long-term trend for DVC is a slow upward tick in initial buy-in prices.
Short term, there have been incentives such as a reduction in price if you are a referral, or developer points ( basically a 1-time bonus of points that must be used within 6 months of purchasing). We recieved the developer points last April and spent a week in a 2br at Saratoga Springs in September with them. Our first use of our actual DVC points will be starting next Saturday. Since we banked our 1st year points, we are doing a week in a studio at AKL starting next weekend, and then will have 2 2BR suites for 5 nights in June, all Savannah view, all with our 2008 points.

Back to your question, this might be the most pronounced downturn in the economy since DVC has become really popular, so it will be interesting to see. One consideration is the increased buying power for those visiting from the UK/Europe, and that might keep the market pretty level.

We purchased 250 points last year, and financed only about 20% of the purchase, which we have since paid off.

For us, it is the relative assurance we can have quality vacations for quite a long period.
 
WDWFigment

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
^Sorry, I meant to say I've been watching them at The Timeshare Store.

I definitely wouldn't be purchasing through Disney, itself.

Thank you for the information!

If I'm primarily going to be travelling in late August (slow season...when school is back in session), will I have trouble booking at BCV, VWL, or BMV?

Thanks again--you seem to be a wealth of information around here!
 
slappy magoo

slappy magoo

Well-Known Member
One thing to understand is that Disney has the right of first refusal when it comes to resales. If someone tries to resell too low, Disney can buy it, and then resell it themselves. As a result, even if there are significantly lower prices out there, they won't be there too long, and even if you jump on a lower price, Disney might exercise the option to buy it themselves, leaving you high and dry.

We went last August, with hopes to split the trip up between BCV, 2nd choice WVL, and a few days @ BWV. We got WVL, not BCV.
 
WDWFigment

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I've read about the ROFR before. Does Disney exercise this often? It seems like it would be pretty easy to determine when they're most likely to exercise it (sales below $x per point?) but I haven't seen any information about that.

After staying in a 1BR at SSR, I'm fine with being "stuck" with that most of the time (especially considering the savings of buying there), but I'd like to be able to jump around a little. I perused the MouseOwners boards a little, and it seems like point trading is available to help accomplish this (although I'm sure all owners know which properties are the "best" to have when trading and trades take place accordingly).

It also appears that some people own DVC properties for the sole purpose of renting them out. At a renting price of $13 per point, you'd recoup your initial investment on a $78 per point initial investment in roughly 9 years (not factoring in interest, or a whole host of minor factors). That doesn't seem like a bad route, either...
 
DVC Mike

DVC Mike

Well-Known Member
WDWFigment

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
DVC Mike said:
MouseOwners maintains an "ROFR database" to help resale buyers determine at what point cost DVC has been exercising ROFR.

http://www.mouseowners.com/content/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=316&Itemid=270
Click to expand...

Thanks! It looks like there isn't much room for negotiation between many of the list prices on The Timeshare Store, based on the ROFRs. Maybe it'd be smarter to negotiate for the seller to pay the closing costs (or a portion of the closing costs) rather than try to float a price that risks not being able to pass ROFR...
 
DVC Mike

DVC Mike

Well-Known Member
WDWFigment said:
If I'm primarily going to be travelling in late August (slow season...when school is back in session), will I have trouble booking at BCV, VWL, or BMV?
Click to expand...

The easiest times to book those 3 resorts will be January through Mid-February, May and September. These are generally considered to be quiet periods for DVC booking.
 
mousermerf

mousermerf

Account Suspended
A note: Don't buy Saratoga unless you intend to stay at Saratoga. Heard many tales of folks buying into DVC for the sake being DVC and then being sorely dissapointed when trying to goto other resorts. Buy the resort you want - the "value" will be staying at a resort you enjoy.
 
WDWFigment

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
mousermerf said:
A note: Don't buy Saratoga unless you intend to stay at Saratoga. Heard many tales of folks buying into DVC for the sake being DVC and then being sorely dissapointed when trying to goto other resorts. Buy the resort you want - the "value" will be staying at a resort you enjoy.
Click to expand...

I have no problem staying at SSR the majority of the time, I would just like to be able to, on occasion, book other resorts. I have no problem calling at exactly the 7 month window to check on availability elsewhere, I just don't want to be stuck at only SSR for my next 20 vacations.
 

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