Does anybody trust Crowd Calendars?

[SourcererMark79]

Im a new AP, and DW and I spent the afternoon picking our days to visit for the remainder of the year. Browsed a bunch of crowd calendars, and came to the conclusion they are not all equal. In fact, wildly different. So, does anyone use these as a guide for when to visit? I'm convinced that with few exceptions, it's either crowded or CROWDED!

 

[Souvenir]

I'm convinced that with few exceptions, it's either crowded or CROWDED!

THIS exactly! I use crowd calendars for finding out what special events are happening but I never assume there won't be a lot of people.

One of the nice things about having an AP, I always know I'll be back. If the things I had planned to do are too backed up, I just go do something else. I don't need to get to everything on every trip.

 

[correcaminos]

THIS exactly! I use crowd calendars for finding out what special events are happening but I never assume there won't be a lot of people.

One of the nice things about having an AP, I always know I'll be back. If the things I had planned to do are too backed up, I just go do something else. I don't need to get to everything on every trip.

This is so true! That's the good thing, we know we'll be back!

I find the crowd calendars out there are guidelines but not always great. Some don't match up at all with each other either which says something to me - either they have no idea or that the crowd size is really quite relative. The off season now is not much better that very crowded times. So go when you want and just have fun

 

[MaximumEd]

Crowded is relative at WDW. After going for years during spring break, we went in late October one year, and even though it was crowded, the difference between crowded and CROWDED was dramatic.

 

[John park hopper]

We used the crowd calender to select dates to go ths passed May and based on that it seemed to be pretty accurate early. Monday - Friday crowds were light to moderate but on the weekend it got moderate to heavy. Based on the crowd calender we planned a trip early Feb 2018 so we will see

 

[SourcererMark79]

THIS exactly! I use crowd calendars for finding out what special events are happening but I never assume there won't be a lot of people.

One of the nice things about having an AP, I always know I'll be back. If the things I had planned to do are too backed up, I just go do something else. I don't need to get to everything on every trip.

Yes, I have found this to be true since becoming an AP. No more feeling of missing out or not getting your money's worth.

 

[rob0519]

I don't think you can trust crowd calendars anymore. It's always crowded and the holidays and special events are super crowded.

 

[DisneyJoe]

They use different methodologies so comparing one to another is like comparing apples to oranges.

 

[SourcererMark79]

They use different methodologies so comparing one to another is like comparing apples to oranges.

Yes they do. I view them to see if I'm overlooking a non Disney special event (cheer, runDISNEY, jersey week etc.) Some have steered me away on a particular day because of something going on, so it has helped in some ways.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Your definition of crowded is different than mine which is different from someone else.

Essentially, Disney is always crowded.

However, avoiding Summer, Easter, July 4th, Spring Break, Thanksgiving, Christmas/New Years, and Memorial Day weekend will generally get you lighter crowds than those. Any other random day is just the luck of the draw. I've been there on a random mid weekday in mid September and felt like it was pretty crowded.

 

[Bobb_o]

I don't worry about the number and focus more on why a park would be crowded. It's like I'm not doing Epcot on a weekend during F&W.

 

[roj2323]

At one time crowd calendars were predictable but in the past 2-3 years especially they have become entirely unreliable. I've had some luck in choosing reasonable crowd days but that's in my opinion only because I'm a local and pay attention not only to the park calendar, park special events, construction events (openings, closings and such), the Local school calendars as well as the weather. Even with great knowledge of all of those, it's still a crap shoot.

 

[Surfin' Tuna]

I have found they reliably predict when the busiest of days will be, but they are rarely right beyond that. It seems even a few years ago, we could use them as a guide. Now if we go over based on the calendars we regret it. Just go when you can go and try to avoid Spring Break and other major holidays. Disney knows when they slow times are and does their best to fill those days.

 

[Herdman]

We might refer to the crowd calendars on Touring Plans as to which days to visit which park within our trip planning, but we don't use it to pick the actual dates of our trip.

 

[sshindel]

Use them as a guideline, but like anything, predicting the future is hard.

I personally wish the crowd calendar sites would publish the general rules they use to develop their models. How they collect their data, what variables they collect, what variables they use to predict the crowd level, what factor they may use as a guideline for predicting overall year-to-year growth, and how often they retrain/rebuild their models. Having insights into this would give us a better idea how much to trust their predictions. Of course, publishing their methods likely would allow others to try and do the same, so they'll keep that quiet for competitive advantage.

 

[JIMINYCR]

When I'm in the planning phase I look at them all and compare what they are suggesting for the park to visit but I never completely rely on them. We plan to be at specific parks on specific days but sometimes the crowds are very different than predicted. Thats why we have always gotten park hoppers so we have the flexibility to change our plans. I find Touring Plans are still more reliable than the others and I give them more credence.

 

[SyracuseDisneyFan]

I do look at Crowd Calendars, but I don't know how accurate they are.

 

[Seanual757]

Not really we are local we make our FP's go for them and leave unless we can get another.

 

[Weather_Lady]

I study several different calendars AND their methodologies (and the differences in the methodologies help to explain the differences in recommendations -- for example, one site will automatically give preference to parks with EMH because it values the extra time more than the small bump in crowds that EMH produces; another popular site does the opposite, because it seeks to avoid the crowd bump -- other sites don't even take EMH into account, or school breaks, or special WDW events). Overall, though, we use them only for picking "when to visit" rather than "which park to visit on which day."

It's true, though, that they are untrustworthy. One time I trusted a crowd calendar in planning our vacation, and the next thing I knew, it drank all my beer, emptied my bank account, blew away my Donald hat on Big Thunder Mountain, and invited my mother-in-law to spend the summer with us. I realize now that I should never have trusted it.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Use them as a guideline, but like anything, predicting the future is hard.

I personally wish the crowd calendar sites would publish the general rules they use to develop their models. How they collect their data, what variables they collect, what variables they use to predict the crowd level, what factor they may use as a guideline for predicting overall year-to-year growth, and how often they retrain/rebuild their models. Having insights into this would give us a better idea how much to trust their predictions. Of course, publishing their methods likely would allow others to try and do the same, so they'll keep that quiet for competitive advantage.

TouringPlans does, in detail.