Do you use crowd calendars to choose when to go to WDW?

[winstongator]

I have been spending way too much time looking at crowd calendars. Then it hit me: I don't even use the calendars to determine when to go! I am a pass holder and lucky enough to get to the parks what I consider a lot.

Looking forward, our next trips are for a business trip my wife has there in April, and then a week in June when she has vacation and the kids are out of school

Looking back our visits were for our kids spring break coinciding with my wife having business in Orlando, another business trip of my wife's, random days in January when I could get down to WDW on my own, Thanksgiving when we were meeting family in Orlando, other days in November when my kids were off school, and then other days in October I could get there on my own.

Lots of busy times, and when it's that busy we tend to do less time at the parks. Looking at when we've gone the 4 years we've been pass holders is almost all very crowded days as that was when we could get to the parks.

 

[aliceismad]

So are you all paying subscribers to touring plans? Noticed there’s a paywall it seems.

I did find one to assist on my next Universal trip though. Apparently early May is slooow

There’s quite a bit of content that’s not behind the paywall. And there’s a lot more to it than just crowd calendars. So for someone like me who doesn’t go all that often it’s worth it. With an online discount it was like $10.

 

[correcaminos]

I look at them for giggles sometimes now because I find then unreliable and really there are no slow seasons now. Just go when you can and don't worry about it.

 

[GJM724]

I am really concerned about how accurate Touring Plans is. I am visiting May 1-9 and all of a sudden the crowds have jumped from 2/3's all the way to 6's and 7's. Maybe Disney is just busier now that the economy is good, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.

 

[aliceismad]

I am really concerned about how accurate Touring Plans is. I am visiting May 1-9 and all of a sudden the crowds have jumped from 2/3's all the way to 6's and 7's. Maybe Disney is just busier now that the economy is good, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.

I got that email too. I think TP is adjusting based on the assumption that people are booking earlier trips to avoid SW:GE opening. May was supposed to be the "next lowest" crowd period after Sept. I think all crowd calendars get thrown out the window for the next year or so. Can't predict what people are going to do with the Star Wars news.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Too many intangibles for them to be accurate. It's like saying it will be sunny on October 1, 2019 because it was sunny October 1, 2017 and 2018. So you plan a picnic.........and a hurricane hits.

 

[Weather_Lady]

When the kids were little and we could take them out of school to travel... we relied heavily on crowd calendars to pick favorable weeks to visit, but we still relied on "a good touring plan" for each day, knowing it would have more of an impact on our efficiency than crowd levels would.

Now that they're older and we're forced to limit our vacations to school breaks (e.g., summer, President's Day week, etc.), we ignore the crowd calendars completely and pin all our hopes to our touring plans (including early arrival, smart use of FP+, simple strategies like not rope dropping parks that have had "early morning magic" events, etc.).

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I will say this, several years ago I thought I had it all lined up using various crowd calendars and had picked out what would be a pretty light spring week. When I arrived we were surprised to see that New England schools were on a break and had filled the resort up pretty well.
I think there are few guaranteed light weeks anymore. Disney has brought in events to fill the old ones like food and wine, flower, halloween parties etc this year halloween parties are now stretching into August! So harder and harder. That said, I think early September is still a good time as most kids are just getting back to school and if you are like me, the idea of pulling them out after just getting back is a no go. I think this is also why early January is a good time time as well with as kids are just back from breaks and the holiday special events are over.

But this year with Star Wars Land? All bets are off an may the force be with anyone venturing before 2021.

 

[correcaminos]

I am really concerned about how accurate Touring Plans is. I am visiting May 1-9 and all of a sudden the crowds have jumped from 2/3's all the way to 6's and 7's. Maybe Disney is just busier now that the economy is good, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.

Hate to say it, but May has never been 2 or 3 really any of the times I have gone. I mean never in all the years I went. this is part of why I don't use calendars and honestly my issue with TP. I feel they do this often and are off too much for what they charge.

 

[NeedMoreMickey]

Don’t use TP. Take a sister trip in March that is around the same time as the Arnold Palmer golf tournament, watch golf during the day and hit the parks in the evening. Another trip in usually October with my husband for our anniversary trip. Most of my trips revolve around something else and not just a vacation to WDW.

 

[lentesta]

I'm happy to post TP's crowd calendar accuracy, if anyone's interested.

 

[winstongator]

I'm happy to post TP's crowd calendar accuracy, if anyone's interested.

I’ve done some brief review of days I’ve been there. Feb 2018 was pretty darn crowded. I might be interested to see if there was some sort trend driving when the error is higher/lower. I like looking at the data and doing some beginning python programming.

What motivated this post was the realization that I go when I go even when the crowd calendar (and history) tells me to reconsider. Thanksgiving week: my kids are off school, my parents are in Orlando, we’re going to go to the parks at some point. History and the crowd calendar do drive my expectations though. Spring break: my wife has a work meeting in Orlando, more time at the parks. Our 3rd big trip is in the summer and that’s driven by when my wife has vacation. What has helped is managing expectations, having a plan and doing our best to stick to it.

We’ve done a lot of trips, with over 80% of them at high crowd times because that’s when we are able to go. It’s also when friends and family can go and we meet up with them there frequently.

I’d love to play with csv data of predicted and observed crowd levels.

One question/comment I’ve had is how wait times map to crowd levels - haven’t you shifted a little on that recently?

I’m also interested in seeing, calculating or simulating how an additional 1k, 2k, 5k or 10k guests impact wait times (and also back calculating attendance levels from wait time changes). A graphical sim-city like environment where you can adjust attendance and attraction throughputs and demands is my ‘dream’. I wonder how close it would be to the ‘build a theme park’ games.

My wife thinks I’m crazy for spending so much time looking at, crunching numbers and thinking about wait times.

 

[Patcheslee]

I'm locked to only summer due to school but avoid Memorial Day and 4th of July. Usually just plan sometime in June then compare nightly rates to find the cheapest week and look at initial crowds. I think we reserve too far ahead to get an accurate crowd prediction.

 

[Much-Pixie-Dust]

I find TP useful for many things, but no longer use them for crowd calendars, as the past 4 trips weren’t accurate in my experience. However, other factors were at play too. For example, I have noticed that certain rides no longer have multiple trains going (like BTMRR or SDMT) and Disney has cut back on ride attendants. These understaffed rides causing longer waits. For example the carousel would have one attendant to get people on and off the ride, check to make sure everybody is on ride properly, start and stop ride, and this increases wait times. We were on jungle cruise and waited 15 minutes in the boat for it fill up completely. Factors like these slows the entire touring process and affects crowds too, IMO.

Based on others’ responses, I am probably in the minority, but I like visiting around holidays because the park hours are and Disney tends to do impromptu extensions of park hours day (at least at MK) around holidays. I find having a smart touring plan, greatly helpful during these times. Plus I love the decorations like the egg display at GF.

 

[jencor]

I use to use TP faithfully, until our last trip in early/mid December 2017. It was not even close. We had one day where they changed the numbers from 3/4 to 7 or 8 on the day or day before of going to the park. It's too late at that point to change my plans. We try hard to go on slow times and since then, we decided that does not happen anymore and have not gone back and do not know when we will. We also never used the tour plans as it went from one side of the park and back and when you are pushing a wheel chair, it was like adding miles to my walk. I think the service of crowd calendars is quite helpful if you are new, but my trust since has dropped.