This is an intriguing question. Right now, Shanghai Shendi Group is in the midst of a massive multi-billion dollar expansion to the south of Shanghai Disney Resort. Shendi is the co-owner of Shanghai Disney Resort. Shanghai Shendi might be constrained with what they can contribute in the next few years. In addition, the government did not announce a new park in their 5 year plan. Obviously, that isn't absolute, but it means immediate priorities might be elsewhere. Personally, I wouldn't be shocked if something like the following occurs...
Next 2 to 3 Years- Walt Disney Imagineering and Shendi begin preliminary work on the park. This would include market research, masterplanning, basic thematic choices, and some basic design work. Disney and Shendi begin to gain political support for the park. There might be a statement either in the press or in a government meeting along the lines of "we are currently exploring the possibility of 2nd park at Shanghai Disney Resort with our partners at Disney, but we have not finalized our plans." I do expect some interim expansion will be announced at Shanghai Disneyland Park. Nearly the entire time the park has been open something has been in the pipeline. A useful ride addition might be an omnimover in the style of Finding Nemo, Little Mermaid, or Haunted Mansion. Adding 2-3 omnimover attractions would bolster the park's capacity dramatically while adding additional attractions for families with small children. They also shouldn't break the bank (in theory).
In about 2-3 years- The 2nd park's basic theme and artwork are released to the public. Within a year the park is approved by the regional government, and site prep begins. Construction commences thereafter.
7-8 years out- The 2nd Park Opens to the public.
Obviously, the following is hypothetical, but I think this timeline makes sense. And of course economic, social, and political impacts might throw a wrench into this timeline. But given Disney promised 60 billion in spending over the next ten years, it seems like they're ready to spend big at Shanghai Disney Resort. The slide deck was very optimistic about the prospects of the Shanghai Park. If Disney were planning to cut Shanghai off due to the geopolitical risk, then Disney would have communicated that in their investor briefing. Instead, Disney was bullish about the future of the resort and the Chinese market. Plus, Disney will only be providing about 40% of the capital for the expansion, so I'm thinking they'll continue on course. The alternative is not investing and potentially missing out on a lucrative market. Whatever they contribute to Shanghai Disney would be awful to lose, but the gamble seems worthwhile.
