Do you think Shanghai will go for another expansion next or go for a second gate?

[Supersnow84]

Shanghai is almost finished zootopia and will add the 7th land to the monstrous park however even with zootopia the park is still quite short on actual rides (Shanghai has 17 rides by the traditional count so excluding modes of transport and little play areas like liki tiki’s inclusive of zootopia) (for reference HK with arendelle has 16 rides) and has a lot of unused space which is used as picnic/parkland.

Now Shanghai is not short on expansion pads for Disneyland (they could feasibly almost double the size of every single land in the park with the space they have) however the current park also gets more than enough guests to justify a second gate (though currently length Of stay time is barely better than HK because of the mile wide inch deep Shanghai design)

With all this In Mind do you think Shanghai will go for a second gate next or for another expansion to really lock in 2-3 days as an absolute minimum for the resort

 

[networkpro]

Shanghai is almost finished zootopia and will add the 7th land to the monstrous park however even with zootopia the park is still quite short on actual rides (Shanghai has 17 rides by the traditional count so excluding modes of transport and little play areas like liki tiki’s inclusive of zootopia) (for reference HK with arendelle has 16 rides) and has a lot of unused space which is used as picnic/parkland.

Now Shanghai is not short on expansion pads for Disneyland (they could feasibly almost double the size of every single land in the park with the space they have) however the current park also gets more than enough guests to justify a second gate (though currently length Of stay time is barely better than HK because of the mile wide inch deep Shanghai design)

With all this In Mind do you think Shanghai will go for a second gate next or for another expansion to really lock in 2-3 days as an absolute minimum for the resort

Neither. With all of the turmoil in Communist China right now (local government debt, the exit of global manufacturing companies and the jobs they provide, increasing political friction with the rest of the world, and Xi's Mao-like personality cult he's fostering) the near-term future isn't very rosy for lots of people with the necessary disposable income.

 

[Supersnow84]

Neither. With all of the turmoil in Communist China right now (local government debt, the exit of global manufacturing companies and the jobs they provide, increasing political friction with the rest of the world, and Xi's Mao-like personality cult he's fostering) the near-term future isn't very rosy for lots of people with the necessary disposable income.

It hasn’t seemed to have depressed the outlook for the park up till now at least

Shanghai has probably bounced back the strongest of the 6 resorts overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if it expanded first outside of finishing existing expansions Covid delayed

 

[Mark_E]

Eventually, I think there will be a second gate, but not for a fair while. I'd love to say we will get a second park there within 10 years time, but I am doubtful. That's not because I don't think the demand is there - it absolutely is, and it would be busy from day dot like the first park, but the political situation certainly isn't the best and it may make more financial sense initially to expand the first park.

 

[Supersnow84]

Wouldn’t the Chinese government be in favour of presenting a strong front over acknowledging there is weakness in the economy

Disney is certainly making out like thieves on Shanghai

 

[BrianLo]

Shanghai certainly seems to be the only resort actually in a position for another gate. Tokyo having chosen to forgo, which seems to in some part be the right move for them.

That said I think we'll see two large scale projects still before the second gate consideration occurs at the end of the decade. There could have been one this decade but I think the Pandemic likely shifted it a good 5-7 years. The resort needs to be humming at large margins for a while. Which it actually was heading towards and is back on track for.


By large scale I mean two bigger rides, not necessarily entire lands. I thought there was serious talk of an Intamin Spiderman coaster.

 

[Supersnow84]

Shanghai certainly seems to be the only resort actually in a position for another gate. Tokyo having chosen to forgo, which seems to in some part be the right move for them.

That said I think we'll see two large scale projects still before the second gate consideration occurs at the end of the decade. There could have been one this decade but I think the Pandemic likely shifted it a good 5-7 years. The resort needs to be humming at large margins for a while. Which it actually was heading towards and is back on track for.


By large scale I mean two bigger rides, not necessarily entire lands. I thought there was serious talk of an Intamin Spiderman coaster.

It will be interesting to see if say zootopia will actually increase attendance

It’s would be interesting to see if Shanghai kinda maxed its potential attendance immediately or if it has a lot of untapped potential

 

[BrianLo]

It will be interesting to see if say zootopia will actually increase attendance

It’s would be interesting to see if Shanghai kinda maxed its potential attendance immediately or if it has a lot of untapped potential

I am beyond certain that market is not even remotely tapped out. These things have a long time horizon. Today's generation of kids will have nostalgia and bring there kids in 20 years and then it starts to compound with time.

 

[Supersnow84]

I am beyond certain that market is not even remotely tapped out. These things have a long time horizon. Today's generation of kids will have nostalgia and bring there kids in 20 years and then it starts to compound with time.

True but people also fall away over time, 12 million is quite larger for a one park resort, will they reach the numbers of say magic kingdom or just kinda cycle a constant number of guests

 

[marni1971]

Finish the first park first lest we get a DCA / WDSP.

 

[Supersnow84]

Finish the first park first lest we get a DCA / WDSP.

Though that wasn’t the fault of the original park in either case

Both were bad on launch because they were built on the cheap, I agree it’s incredibly unlikely they would put 6 billion up again in the next 5 years but I don’t think the status of the existing park affects the second gate unless you count that the second gate would deprive the main park from expansion for decades likely like Paris

 

[wdrive]

It’s a delicate balance balance between building a new park and expanding a current one.

A new park with 6 themed lands is more expensive to run than adding 6 new themed lands to an existing park (in theory)

 

[Supersnow84]

It’s a delicate balance balance between building a new park and expanding a current one.

A new park with 6 themed lands is more expensive to run than adding 6 new themed lands to an existing park (in theory)

although the other side is how much more would 6 lands in a new park draw compared to 6 new lands in Disneyland

I honestly don’t know if it would change anything, especially since Shanghai is the only resort with enough expansion pads that it could build functionally another park’s worth of lands inside Disneyland

 

[wdrive]

although the other side is how much more would 6 lands in a new park draw compared to 6 new lands in Disneyland

Very true, as I said it’s a delicate balance. And why the people who decide these things are probably paid way more than I am

 

[Supersnow84]

Very true, as I said it’s a delicate balance. And why the people who decide these things are probably paid way more than I am

That’s true it’s an interesting thought, I know personally even if it’s no different I’d be more drawn to a 6 land new park more than 6 new lands at Disneyland park

I don’t know what it is but something is just attractive about a second gate, though Shanghai is already monstrous so that might play into it, expansion is a bit awkward

 

[wdrive]

That’s true it’s an interesting thought, I know personally even if it’s no different I’d be more drawn to a 6 land new park more than 6 new lands at Disneyland park

I don’t know what it is but something is just attractive about a second gate, though Shanghai is already monstrous so that might play into it, expansion is a bit awkward

I have it say if they built 6 new lands in the Magic Kingdom at WDW I think it would draw as much as a new park. Look at Harry Potter in Universal, plenty people believe that is a park in itself. But it’s very contextual and I can’t say I know a ton of Chinese culture and how they’d interpret new lands vs new park etc

 

[Supersnow84]

I have it say if they built 6 new lands in the Magic Kingdom at WDW I think it would draw as much as a new park. Look at Harry Potter in Universal, plenty people believe that is a park in itself. But it’s very contextual and I can’t say I know a ton of Chinese culture and how they’d interpret new lands vs new park etc

That’s true though magic kingdom I think is a little bit different due to its world status compared to the other 5

Yeah Chinese customs confuse me on this, I’ve heard sources from books and reports that both Chinese parks are following Chinese customs with their park design….but the parks couldn’t be more different if they tried while still being magic kingdoms, Hong Kong is often reported as “many small lands” being integral to Chinese custom but Shanghai went for few large lands with a lot of space

I wouldn’t know what they would support

 

[NotCalledBob]

Bob and Josh were in Shanghai for it's 7th Anniversary earlier this week. They went onto HK the next day. As always I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall during the trip.

 

[Supersnow84]

Interesting the CEO doesn’t usually visit every resort on every birthday and 7 really isn’t a special year (even in Chinese numerology 7 has both negative and positive connetations and is only really an absolute positive in relationships)

I feel like there had to be a reason for this, strange though that he also tacked on a trip to HK

 

[networkpro]

That’s true though magic kingdom I think is a little bit different due to its world status compared to the other 5

Yeah Chinese customs confuse me on this, I’ve heard sources from books and reports that both Chinese parks are following Chinese customs with their park design….but the parks couldn’t be more different if they tried while still being magic kingdoms, Hong Kong is often reported as “many small lands” being integral to Chinese custom but Shanghai went for few large lands with a lot of space

I wouldn’t know what they would support

China isn't a monolithic homogenous society or culture in spite of what the CCP presents in the official media.