Disney's Streaming Services: Disney+ (and Hulu, ESPN+, Star, & hotstar)

[Jedijax719]

The first three MCU movies are enigmas this year. Black Widow is a very popular character but we are now 2 years removed from her last appearance. It's not an essential film. But compared to the unknowns which are Shang-Chi and Eternals, it would have had the greatest potential at the box office. Spiderman, on the other hand, is a no brainer. They can and should put that in theaters only. Actually, they have no choice since there's NO streaming platform for it. By then everyone who wants a vaccine should definitely have it.

As for a movie like Jungle Cruise, I actually expect that to fall on D+ only. The problem with that is that I am sure they are paying Blunt and Johnson a hefty penny.

And @MisterPenguin yeah I'm guessing Raya probably did well.

It all seems like a game of chicken on the railroad with COVID being the train. Sure, the train may be slowing down but the momentum is still driving it forward until the breaks totally take hold. And the virus is still winning against movie studios and theaters.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I do find it interesting they seem to be more willing to just put these Pixar films up as part of Disney+, I wonder why they are not getting the Premiere treatment? Luca is now the third to go up for free.

 

[Mmoore29]

But again, you cant do that for Black Widow.

Technically, you can. Already, the changes from "theatrical only" to switching to hybrid basically is the end of "you can't do that." So they could easily say, "well, we changed it already, we're changing it again."

Also, though this particular scenario I'm about to suggest is unlikely, if all the chains decided to boycott Disney and refuse to play either Cruella or Black Widow, that would make Disney immediately reconsider and make them theatrical only.

It does make me think, BTW, about the time that the Cinerama Dome had to back out of a plan to premiere The Hateful Eight in order to get The Force Awakens. Would it have been better, in some ways, if Cinerama had said, "Well, go and take it, then. I'm keeping my promise to Quentin?"

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Also, though this particular scenario I'm about to suggest is unlikely, if all the chains decided to boycott Disney and refuse to play either Cruella or Black Widow, that would make Disney immediately reconsider and make them theatrical only.

Of all these releases, Black Widow is the one I don't see chains boycotting. Marvel is guaranteed money for them at this point.

 

[Darkprime]

As for a movie like Jungle Cruise, I actually expect that to fall on D+ only. The problem with that is that I am sure they are paying Blunt and Johnson a hefty penny.

Marvel announced a while ago that they were looking at new back end deals with their talent for movies going to Disney+ I wouldn't be surprised if Disney proper was doing the same.

Technically, you can. Already, the changes from "theatrical only" to switching to hybrid basically is the end of "you can't do that." So they could easily say, "well, we changed it already, we're changing it again."

Also, though this particular scenario I'm about to suggest is unlikely, if all the chains decided to boycott Disney and refuse to play either Cruella or Black Widow, that would make Disney immediately reconsider and make them theatrical only.

It does make me think, BTW, about the time that the Cinerama Dome had to back out of a plan to premiere The Hateful Eight in order to get The Force Awakens. Would it have been better, in some ways, if Cinerama had said, "Well, go and take it, then. I'm keeping my promise to Quentin?"

That would be stupid though. The general movie going audience has already spent a year away from the movie theater and gotten used to the idea of streaming everything. Imagine if they decide not to play a big marvel movie that's basically admitting defeat. People will just watch it on Disney+ and it will further cement Disney's future and commitment to streaming.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Here's another question for you all. Do you think Chapek overruled Feige sending Black Widow to Disney+? Or do you think Feige and Chapek came to some sort of agreement?

Why would anyone imagine that there must be some sort of top executive disagreement and drama to begin with? Even if they disagreed, they could do so amiably recognizing the chain of command.

 

[Darkprime]

Why would anyone imagine that there must be some sort of top executive disagreement and drama to begin with? Even if they disagreed, they could do so amiably recognizing the chain of command.

Because its been public knowledge for a while through the trades that Feige was pushing for Black Widow to be a theatrical exclusive release. So its kind of surprising to see it going to Disney+ from that perspective.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Because its been public knowledge for a while through the trades that Feige was pushing for Black Widow to be a theatrical exclusive release. So its kind of surprising to see it going to Disney+ from that perspective.

Well, if we're going to speculate, maybe Feige feels a whole lot better about D+ after WandaVision and FAWS premier.

Maybe he saw the Raya numbers.

 

[Jedijax719]

Well, if we're going to speculate, maybe Feige feels a whole lot better about D+ after WandaVision and FAWS premier.

Maybe he saw the Raya numbers.

Maybe, but we didn't. Could that be because the numbers look good for the studio but wouldn't look good to the public? (because the public only has box office numbers to compare?). So maybe it's about their calculations of what PA brings in rather than raw numbers? I mean, FATWS and WV were both "free" so that doesn't seem like apples to apples.

Perhaps the numbers they were truly looking were the HBO Max numbers for the Snyder Cut?

 

[seascape]

Do people really think theatres will be normal by July? I seriously doubt it. The public is still going to be hesitant, and there is no way they'll have the box office smash they'd normally have had.

It's better to maintain this hybrid model until I think end of 2021.

Especially when worldwide Cinema's are all in different places, much easier to have across the board Premiere and Theatres for all countries.

I hate to say this but my wife is against ever going to the movie theaters again. She understands that Covid19 will be over sometime before the end of the year. She is willing to travel but wants social distancing of a minimum of 3 feet to continue forever. We both want temperature requirements to continue forever at themeparks. There will always be sick people in the park but it should be minimized. Anyway, for those of us who love movies, extremely expensive ones like Marvel, we need to pay more. Therefore Disney and the other studios need to find a way not make more money. I am willing to pay for a premium version of Disney+ which includes dat and date viewing of all Disney owned studios. However, I am not willing to buy only one at a time. Disney needs to offer all types of plans to maximize their profits. Give me what I want and take the money I am willing to pay.

 

[Mmoore29]

That would be stupid though. The general movie going audience has already spent a year away from the movie theater and gotten used to the idea of streaming everything. Imagine if they decide not to play a big marvel movie that's basically admitting defeat. People will just watch it on Disney+ and it will further cement Disney's future and commitment to streaming.

Movies can only make profit in the theatrical model, with that much foot traffic. There isn't THAT much demand for PVOD; movies aren't MMA PPV matches. So 100 percent profit on Disney+ comes with that massive trade-off. Disney NEEDS theaters just as much as theaters need Disney. Especially since Chapek and Daniel keep saying "we're not going to cut the legs off of exhibition like Warners did with moving the entire 2021 slate;" but actions like this seem to go against that. A Deadline article quoted an exhibitor as saying, "does anyone who actually knows the movie industry call the shots? This hasn't so disorganized and in such disarray since the Rich Ross era."

 

[Disney Irish]

Movies can only make profit in the theatrical model, with that much foot traffic. There isn't THAT much demand for PVOD; movies aren't MMA PPV matches. So 100 percent profit on Disney+ comes with that massive trade-off. Disney NEEDS theaters just as much as theaters need Disney. Especially since Chapek and Daniel keep saying "we're not going to cut the legs off of exhibition like Warners did with moving the entire 2021 slate;" but actions like this seem to go against that. A Deadline article quoted an exhibitor as saying, "does anyone who actually knows the movie industry call the shots? This hasn't so disorganized and in such disarray since the Rich Ross era."

I'm sorry but this is a shortsighted and quite frankly an outdated view of the movie industry.

If a film makes $800M and is considered profitable in its theatrical only release then a Studio on average only makes $400M of that. But if Disney makes $400M from a Premier Access release on D+ then they keep 100% of that, no sharing with the theaters. Its the same $400M they make in both scenarios, so I don't see how you can say that movies are only profitable in the theatrical model. And then if they consider a "Day and Date" release mode where it goes to both theaters and to Premier Access, such as they are doing with Black Widow, they make even more profit than they would with a theatrical model alone. So in reality Disney is better off including the PVOD model using Premier Access on D+ then sticking to the old theatrical only release model.

Also its been said that doing the PVOD model with Premier Access on D+ leaves money on the table that they would otherwise get in a theatrical only model. This is not true and again is shortsighted. Disney+ just like other streamers tracks the number of accounts based on "Paid Accounts" meaning the actual subscription, not the number of active accounts which would include sub-accounts. So D+ now have over 100M paid accounts. If just 20% of those subscribers pay the $30 for a Premier Access movie that is $600M that goes right into Disney's pocket with NO sharing with anyone else. And we know for a movie like Black Widow its going to be more than 20% getting the movie.

So with a movie like Black Widow or other MCU movie doing "Day and Date" to both theaters and D+ Premier Access it could hit $1B. And that would be more directly in Disney's pocket. This is the future of movie releases, its how consumers have been trained for the last year and Disney is going give its audiences every opportunity to view its films including D+ Premier Access.

 

[DCLcruiser]

Black Widow is an origin story, right? So it has no impact on the Infinity Wars saga (nothing new). It can easily go D+/Theaters as it may not be very popular or at least not a cinematic experience requiring a theatre.

In the future I'd rather spend $50 at the theater for Dolby Cinema than $30 at home for MCU/blockbusters, but for your basic movie that I may wait to rent on Apple TV for $5.99, I'd rather see it on D+ for free (Luca, etc).

 

[Jedijax719]

By now BW is a very well known character.

@DCLcruiser it will be interesting to see if they announce a date for the "free" release on D+. People waited this long for the movie so there's no reason they can't wait another 3 months for the free release if it happens.

 

[khlaylav]

Here's something tangentially related but should still be noted: According to the Hollywood Reporter, Netflix is changing their release schedule for two of their shows.

Un-Binged: Netflix Modifies Releases for ‘The Circle,’ ‘Too Hot to Handle’

The two unscripted shows will roll out over several weeks as the streamer looks to a longer period to engage viewers.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

"For well-known properties, at least, the varied strategy has paid dividends. All-at-once Netflix shows like The Crown and and Bridgerton tend to finish at the top of Nielsen's streaming rankings for originals soon after their release, but The Mandalorian and WandaVision have both had long runs in the top 10 on the back of their weekly episode debuts."

And then a quote from someone at Netflix.

'"We're experimenting with the release format so you have time to dissect and dish on every step of the competition as it unfolds," Brandon Riegg, vp unscripted and documentary series at Netflix, said in a blog post announcing the modified releases.'

Would indicate for at least these couple shows, Netflix sees what Disney is doing and wants in on that action.

 

[Mmoore29]

I'm sorry but this is a shortsighted and quite frankly an outdated view of the movie industry.

If a film makes $800M and is considered profitable in its theatrical only release then a Studio on average only makes $400M of that. But if Disney makes $400M from a Premier Access release on D+ then they keep 100% of that, no sharing with the theaters. Its the same $400M they make in both scenarios, so I don't see how you can say that movies are only profitable in the theatrical model. And then if they consider a "Day and Date" release mode where it goes to both theaters and to Premier Access, such as they are doing with Black Widow, they make even more profit than they would with a theatrical model alone. So in reality Disney is better off including the PVOD model using Premier Access on D+ then sticking to the old theatrical only release model.

Also its been said that doing the PVOD model with Premier Access on D+ leaves money on the table that they would otherwise get in a theatrical only model. This is not true and again is shortsighted. Disney+ just like other streamers tracks the number of accounts based on "Paid Accounts" meaning the actual subscription, not the number of active accounts which would include sub-accounts. So D+ now have over 100M paid accounts. If just 20% of those subscribers pay the $30 for a Premier Access movie that is $600M that goes right into Disney's pocket with NO sharing with anyone else. And we know for a movie like Black Widow its going to be more than 20% getting the movie.

So with a movie like Black Widow or other MCU movie doing "Day and Date" to both theaters and D+ Premier Access it could hit $1B. And that would be more directly in Disney's pocket. This is the future of movie releases, its how consumers have been trained for the last year and Disney is going give its audiences every opportunity to view its films including D+ Premier Access.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against the idea as a whole, and I understand that moves like this were going to happen anyways, even if there had never been COVID; we're just getting pushed to this much faster now.

But the odds of there being that many paid accounts actually ponying up for premier access is quite remote. Most of these people are simply going to wait until the free access period, that is a fact. It's also what's basically happening with a lot of the PVOD deals of other studios' films, except that the profit participation is even more complicated, especially factoring salaries, back end, production company/financier participation, and so on.

Movie theaters are the best chance to rack up a massive haul and get a movie into the black. While the streaming model will inevitably figure out the profit participation model and perfect it to make it viable, we're not quite there yet.

Besides, the fact remains that there are a great many people that love the theatrical experience, because, newsflash, it's not a case of "sticky floors and bad hygiene anymore," and was already past that point even before COVID. Multiplexes, drive-ins, small theaters, and so on, they all are going to continue to have a place. Movies are made to be experienced on the big screen, both for profit, and for the vibe.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The D+ numbers would be interesting to see for any titles, but especially the premium ones.

D+ now has 100M subs. So, just one percent going for premium title would be 1M x $30 = $30M. Without halfsies with the theaters, that would be equivalent profit to a box office of $60M.

Now, if they get 10% of the subs going for a premium title, then that's $300M, or, the equivalent profit of a box office of $600M.

 

[MisterPenguin]

BTW, absent a pandemic, both Iger and Chapek have uncategorically said that Disney is committed to the theatrical release window (followed by PPV channels, premium cable, DVD, broadcast, and landing on D+). Obviously, they wouldn't be so committed to those release windows if there were not a direct monetary benefit, or, a 'brand' benefit from keeping the Disney brand alive for the life of all those windows.

A movie that doesn't profit in the theatrical window, can make up for it in the other windows.

The pandemic changes that algorithm.

And who knows, maybe having 10% of D+ subs opting for a premium fee when D+ has over 250M subs will also change that algorithm in the future.

But for now, when the pandemic is 'over,' Disney will go back to the theatrical and following windows.

 

[Surferboy567]

The D+ numbers would be interesting to see for any titles, but especially the premium ones.

D+ now has 100M subs. So, just one percent going for premium title would be 1M x $30 = $30M. Without halfsies with the theaters, that would be equivalent profit to a box office of $60M.

Now, if they get 10% of the subs going for a premium title, then that's $300M, or, the equivalent profit of a box office of $600M.

I’d imagine it’s probably more then that 10%. Just a guess though, no way of actually knowing. I haven’t seen Raya yet I want to but I feel like 30 is asking a lot.

I like the idea of maybe a different version of Disney + with premiere access. That only matters though if they continue to do these combined releases going forward.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The D+ numbers would be interesting to see for any titles, but especially the premium ones.

D+ now has 100M subs. So, just one percent going for premium title would be 1M x $30 = $30M. Without halfsies with the theaters, that would be equivalent profit to a box office of $60M.

Now, if they get 10% of the subs going for a premium title, then that's $300M, or, the equivalent profit of a box office of $600M.

There are no definitive numbers on Mulan, but if the following article is accurate a PVOD model is certainly financially viable. I imagine a lot more people would pay for Widow than would have for Mulan.

Personally, there's few movies I'd pay $20 to $30 to rent "early". iTunes wants me to pay $25 to "bring the theatre to you" and rent LAND, starring Robin Wright for $25. Nothing against the movie, but at a glance I can't see why I'd spend that money rather than wait a few months for an "average" film.

I paid for Wonder Woman 84, I paid for a month of HBO for Justice League, I'd pay for Black Widow. I'll do it occasionally for the big movies, if I can't or don't want to bother with the theater.

‘Mulan’: Making Sense Of The Box Office And VOD Grosses

'Mulan' is a bomb in China, but there are signs that its PVOD performance is at least halfway decent.

www.forbes.com

Presuming half of Disney Plus subscribers are in America, then we can guestimate that around 3.1 million people leased Mulan in America during the first week of availability, for an opening week of $93 million.

Nonetheless, a $93 million PVOD total would be equivalent to around $186 million in theatrical grosses, since Disney doesn’t split revenue with the theaters.