Disney's Streaming Services: Disney+ (and Hulu, ESPN+, Star, & hotstar)

[doctornick]

So, with the recent news of Netflix's subscriber concerns and stock drop, it makes me want about the endgame for Disney+ and all streamers. Basically: what exactly is future for streaming services? Netflix has some 220+ million subscribers worldwide. They are in every major country except China (and Russia currently). I know they plan to crack down on sharing accounts and also to offer a cheaper with commercials option, but at some point significant subscriber growth isn't going to happen any more. If Netflix isn't "good enough" now to maintain their stock price, will they ever be? It is tough for me to understand exactly what the industry and Wall St view as a mature situation where things are satisfactory; maybe such a situation will never exist.

I ask because it seems companies keeping putting more and more money into these streaming services with some concept that they are the "future" but what exactly is that future? It seems to cost a ton to get the kind of prestige/high interest programming that really drives subs and retention. If Netflix at over 200M subs isn't making enough to cover the programming costs while also keeping Wall St happy, will any service ever be able to?

The shifting to more services offering cheaper versions with commercials strikes me as a realization that subscription fees along won't make these services viable. I kinda feel like longer term we'll see commercial free become a lot more expensive than with commercial versions and streamers will start looking even more like traditional TV, albeit more like multiple channels at once and obvious being on demand.

Another thing I fully expect to see in the future is contracts, so you are committed for a number of months/years for a service and can't do the sign up then binge then drop churn.

I also wonder if we'll see more companies merge streaming services (or eliminate services and go back to selling off rights to back catalogs). Part of the issue to me seems there are too many streamers which makes it difficult for people to get everything they want without signing up and dropping stuff regularly. Having fewer but more robust options due to consolidation might encourage people to sign up and keep particular services.

Anyway, I just think it is an interesting topic as all these entertainment companies are pursuing streaming with such vigor but nobody seems to know if it will even work out in the long run.

 

[Disney Irish]

So, with the recent news of Netflix's subscriber concerns and stock drop, it makes me want about the endgame for Disney+ and all streamers. Basically: what exactly is future for streaming services? Netflix has some 220+ million subscribers worldwide. They are in every major country except China (and Russia currently). I know they plan to crack down on sharing accounts and also to offer a cheaper with commercials option, but at some point significant subscriber growth isn't going to happen any more. If Netflix isn't "good enough" now to maintain their stock price, will they ever be? It is tough for me to understand exactly what the industry and Wall St view as a mature situation where things are satisfactory; maybe such a situation will never exist.

I ask because it seems companies keeping putting more and more money into these streaming services with some concept that they are the "future" but what exactly is that future? It seems to cost a ton to get the kind of prestige/high interest programming that really drives subs and retention. If Netflix at over 200M subs isn't making enough to cover the programming costs while also keeping Wall St happy, will any service ever be able to?

The shifting to more services offering cheaper versions with commercials strikes me as a realization that subscription fees along won't make these services viable. I kinda feel like longer term we'll see commercial free become a lot more expensive than with commercial versions and streamers will start looking even more like traditional TV, albeit more like multiple channels at once and obvious being on demand.

Another thing I fully expect to see in the future is contracts, so you are committed for a number of months/years for a service and can't do the sign up then binge then drop churn.

I also wonder if we'll see more companies merge streaming services (or eliminate services and go back to selling off rights to back catalogs). Part of the issue to me seems there are too many streamers which makes it difficult for people to get everything they want without signing up and dropping stuff regularly. Having fewer but more robust options due to consolidation might encourage people to sign up and keep particular services.

Anyway, I just think it is an interesting topic as all these entertainment companies are pursuing streaming with such vigor but nobody seems to know if it will even work out in the long run.

This might deserve its own topic.

However to me this is a short term issue with Netflix, as its the first time they've had a sub drop in a quarter so Wall St is digesting that. Longer term I don't see 220+M sub as being the cap for any particular streaming company, as there is almost 8B people and growing on this planet. So there is further growth, as its estimated that there is around 1.3B streaming subs in the world as of the end of 2021, with 353.2M in the US alone.

Longer term for Netflix I see a content issue as competitors continue to remove content from Netflix and put them on their own service. So they will need to either A. spend to create a backlog of content, or B. buy a backlog of content by acquiring a movie studio who has a backlog, or C. a combination of both A and B.

Now D+ is still in its infancy so its got a lot of room to grow, so I don't see any issue there. And as has been discussed many times, Disney has a WHOLE lot of content still in locked away that they haven't tapped yet, including the Fox library. So they don't have a content issue, but will still need to spend to continue to make new content to keep subs interested.

As for the consolidation question, I'm sure there will be more consolidation in the entertainment world, the who and when is the remaining question. And longer term I suspect as traditional cable goes away there will be some smart company that will offer a "Bundle" of streaming services all together for one cost, I've mentioned this before. But I do see streamers locking subs into a long term contract to prevent churn, it only makes sense.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Netflix was the primary streaming service for a long while. Now that everyone is getting into the game it's inevitable the market shares will spread out a bit.

I don't think Netflix is in serious trouble, they just need to adapt. They were smart to realize they couldn't survive on other studios catalogues and they started producing their own original content. Prestige TV like House of Cards really helped build their brand at the time.

Lately, they seem to be pushing quantity over quality. They've also created a catch-22 situation where they cancel shows right away if they don't get an instant audience. People are less likely to tune in not knowing if a story won't be concluded, which results in the cancellation. It's an odd approach for a streaming service not constrained by the ratings game that broadcast TV is.

Netflix would be wise, in my opinion, to air more self contained programming (i.e. don't have cliffhangers that make series pointless to watch if they are cancelled) or commit to wrapping up shows (i.e. promise that if a show is cancelled they'll be given a few episodes to wrap it up). This just makes sense to be as it builds a library. Netflix is quickly being filled with "incomplete" shows that people will be hesitant to watch, rather than create a "complete" piece of content that will be a resource for years to come.

Disney isn't flooding D+ with a gazillion shows and seeing what sticks. They're delivering high quality content on a regular basis. Pretty much every week gives us a new episode of a Marvel or Star Wars show and they pretty consistently good.

They're also using a weekly release schedule that results in new content all the time. People might be less enthused if they could binge Boba Fett in a day and then wait six weeks for the next big thing to release. It also helps with word of mouth because people can actually discuss the shows on a regular basis. People are talking about whatever happened on the Mandalorian each week, versus not doing so because everyone is on a different viewing schedule.

Netflix will be fine, but will inevitably have a smaller market share because of competition. Disney will continue to do well. I just think that right now Disney has a smarter approach and Netflix needs to make some changes to stop the bleeding.

 

[MisterPenguin]

There are too many streamers. Not all will survive. The goal right now is to keep up deficit spending until you're one of the few streamers left standing. Then, you can cut back on the costs of new content and keep raising subs until you hit the tipping point. (Tho, I think Netflix just found the tipping point there. That's why lower tier ad-support is on the table.)

 

[Disney Irish]

There are too many streamers. Not all will survive. The goal right now is to keep up deficit spending until you're one of the few streamers left standing. Then, you can cut back on the costs of new content and keep raising subs until you hit the tipping point. (Tho, I think Netflix just found the tipping point there. That's why lower tier ad-support is on the table.)

I dunno, 220M just doesn't seem like a tipping point to me. Like I mentioned at the end of 2021 there were ~1.3B streaming subs in the world across all the different services. Now obviously there is some overlap between services, but 220M is only ~17% of the overall number. There is still obviously runway to go before its completely saturated the market for available subs.

And Disney better hope there is because they are going to hit that same tipping point real quick if its only 220M.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I dunno, 220M just doesn't seem like a tipping point to me. Like I mentioned at the end of 2021 there were ~1.3B streaming subs in the world across all the different services. Now obviously there is some overlap between services, but 220M is only ~17% of the overall number. There is still obviously runway to go before its completely saturated the market for available subs.

And Disney better hope there is because they are going to hit that same tipping point real quick if its only 220M.

D+ is at half the subs of Netflix with being in only one third the countries.

Even with only 1/3 the subs, Disney+ shows regularly break into the 10 ten lists of Nielsen.

D+'s saturation in each country is likely to be more saturatey.

 

[Disney Irish]

D+ is at half the subs of Netflix with being in only one third the countries.

Even with only 1/3 the subs, Disney+ shows regularly break into the 10 ten lists of Nielsen.

D+'s saturation in each country is likely to be more saturatey.

We'll see, but the point is there are still way more sub to go after than what D+ or Netflix have today, lots of runway left.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Apparently Nat Geo is filming a second season of Disney’s Animal Kingdom

 

[BrianLo]

So, with the recent news of Netflix's subscriber concerns and stock drop, it makes me want about the endgame for Disney+ and all streamers. Basically: what exactly is future for streaming services? Netflix has some 220+ million subscribers worldwide. They are in every major country except China (and Russia currently). I know they plan to crack down on sharing accounts and also to offer a cheaper with commercials option, but at some point significant subscriber growth isn't going to happen any more. If Netflix isn't "good enough" now to maintain their stock price, will they ever be? It is tough for me to understand exactly what the industry and Wall St view as a mature situation where things are satisfactory; maybe such a situation will never exist.

I ask because it seems companies keeping putting more and more money into these streaming services with some concept that they are the "future" but what exactly is that future? It seems to cost a ton to get the kind of prestige/high interest programming that really drives subs and retention. If Netflix at over 200M subs isn't making enough to cover the programming costs while also keeping Wall St happy, will any service ever be able to?

The shifting to more services offering cheaper versions with commercials strikes me as a realization that subscription fees along won't make these services viable. I kinda feel like longer term we'll see commercial free become a lot more expensive than with commercial versions and streamers will start looking even more like traditional TV, albeit more like multiple channels at once and obvious being on demand.

Another thing I fully expect to see in the future is contracts, so you are committed for a number of months/years for a service and can't do the sign up then binge then drop churn.

I also wonder if we'll see more companies merge streaming services (or eliminate services and go back to selling off rights to back catalogs). Part of the issue to me seems there are too many streamers which makes it difficult for people to get everything they want without signing up and dropping stuff regularly. Having fewer but more robust options due to consolidation might encourage people to sign up and keep particular services.

Anyway, I just think it is an interesting topic as all these entertainment companies are pursuing streaming with such vigor but nobody seems to know if it will even work out in the long run.

I agree that this likely warrants its own thread (because it’s interesting and worth delving into more).

What we are seeing with Netflix is a natural correction from a speculative fueled endless growth into a transitory more mature company. Netflix is not remotely in trouble, it’s just taken Wall Street a hot minute to realize their growth cannot be exponential forever.

What we will see moving forward is less focus on subscriber growth and more on its cash flow as it progresses from a growth company to a more stable mainstay. It’s not that Netflix is worth 3x less today than 6 months ago, it’s that the spectulators have stopped guessing that it will be 3x bigger than it currently is in a couple years.

All of this helps Disney. Which has not realized Disney+ as an inevitable profit centre, nor is it being subjected to the speculative craze, so the company’s overall value is more in touch with reality. It briefly seemed to tip away from reality when the company was literally half-closed in the pandemic and the stock price was sky rocketing.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Darn it, Super Mario Bros. animated movie delaying to April 7, 2023 from December 21st, 2022:




I hope this is not COVID-19 pandemic resurging for this late Fall/Winter for a massive wave of COVID-19 is coming by Fall/Winter.

 

[DCBaker]

"The coming-of-age series, based on the queer teen romantic drama “Love, Simon,” was originally developed for the streamer, but was pushed to Hulu after executives worried that certain issues on the show, including teen sexuality and alcohol use, weren’t a right fit for Disney+.

Now, the third and final season, as well as Seasons 1 and 2, will be available on Disney+ as well as on Hulu beginning on June 15."

‘Love, Victor’ Will Now Be Available on Disney+ (EXCLUSIVE)

'Love, Victor' will stream on both Hulu and Disney+ starting in June.

variety.com

 

[Crossfire]

 

[Animaniac93-98]

"The coming-of-age series, based on the queer teen romantic drama “Love, Simon,” was originally developed for the streamer, but was pushed to Hulu after executives worried that certain issues on the show, including teen sexuality and alcohol use, weren’t a right fit for Disney+.

Now, the third and final season, as well as Seasons 1 and 2, will be available on Disney+ as well as on Hulu beginning on June 15."

‘Love, Victor’ Will Now Be Available on Disney+ (EXCLUSIVE)

'Love, Victor' will stream on both Hulu and Disney+ starting in June.

variety.com

I'm sure the hype and buzz around Netflix's Heartstopper had nothing to do with this sudden change of...heart.

 

[Disney Irish]

"The coming-of-age series, based on the queer teen romantic drama “Love, Simon,” was originally developed for the streamer, but was pushed to Hulu after executives worried that certain issues on the show, including teen sexuality and alcohol use, weren’t a right fit for Disney+.

Now, the third and final season, as well as Seasons 1 and 2, will be available on Disney+ as well as on Hulu beginning on June 15."

‘Love, Victor’ Will Now Be Available on Disney+ (EXCLUSIVE)

'Love, Victor' will stream on both Hulu and Disney+ starting in June.

variety.com

More evidence that the wall between D+ and Hulu is slowly dissolving.

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

I thought it started with the Runaways? Still waiting for Cloak & Dagger to be on Disney+. If this continues would be cool if they added a Freeform section, and collection of shows & films that aired on Fox Family, ABC Family, and Freeform.

 

[DCBaker]

"Hulu is taking rights to popular streaming title Schitt’s Creek, with all six seasons of the comedy series shifting over from Netflix this fall.

The change will take effect on October 3, the Disney-run streaming service announced."

‘Schitt’s Creek’ Moving From Netflix To Hulu This Fall

Hulu is taking rights to "Schitt's Creek," with all six seasons of the popular comedy series shifting over from Netflix this fall.

deadline.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

"Hulu is taking rights to popular streaming title Schitt’s Creek, with all six seasons of the comedy series shifting over from Netflix this fall.

The change will take effect on October 3, the Disney-run streaming service announced."

‘Schitt’s Creek’ Moving From Netflix To Hulu This Fall

Hulu is taking rights to "Schitt's Creek," with all six seasons of the popular comedy series shifting over from Netflix this fall.

deadline.com

I'm befuddled.

Pop TV is owned by CBS/Viacom (Paramount+). At some point they must have sold the complete rights to Netflix, which is apparently selling it to Hulu.

Another way CBS/Viacom is mismanaging their content.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I'm befuddled.

Pop TV is owned by CBS/Viacom (Paramount+). At some point they must have sold the complete rights to Netflix, which is apparently selling it to Hulu.

Another way CBS/Viacom is mismanaging their content.

Aren't most streaming deals time limited? I would assume Netflix paid to stream it for a certain number of years and the deal is expiring.

The show was originally commissioned by CBC so I don't think Pop TV and/or CBS/Viacom ever owned the series.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Aren't most streaming deals time limited? I would assume Netflix paid to stream it for a certain number of years and the deal is expiring.

The show was originally commissioned by CBC so I don't thing Pop TV and/or CBS/Viacom ever owned the series.

I stand corrected. I thought it was a Pop TV original.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I stand corrected. I thought it was a Pop TV original.

I imagine it was labelled as such. Shows are labelled as "Netflix Original" if Netflix pays to air them outside of their country of origin for example, I think.