Disney's Next Acquisition Speculation / Discussion

[brodie999]

What would be in it for Disney? Disney already has a pseudo “creative control” and Sony is begging Disney to step into its other Spider-verse movies. If Sony try’s to leave the relationship with Marvel Studios again, the fan back-lash will be even greater. They blinked this time and not doing so again, will be brutal.

Two events I am watching: 1) the success / failure of the next non-spider-man Sony Marvel production (Morbius) and 2) after these next two Spider-man movies (the Disney event and the stand-alone Spider-man movie) Tom Holand’s contract is up. Now Tom is under contract with Sony, but I could see him moving to Marvel/Disney. If the Morbius movie flops, Sony’s position weakens even further.

Not to mention, their other franchises like Angry Birds, Men in Black and Charlie's Angels have been flopping lately. If this continues in 2020, they'll be forced to sell Spider-Man back to Marvel permanently. Maybe some of the behind the scenes situation might involve Marvel increasing their ownership to 50% early-to-mid next year.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

What would be in it for Disney? Disney already has a pseudo “creative control” and Sony is begging Disney to step into its other Spider-verse movies. If Sony try’s to leave the relationship with Marvel Studios again, the fan back-lash will be even greater. They blinked this time and not doing so again, will be brutal.

Two events I am watching: 1) the success / failure of the next non-spider-man Sony Marvel production (Morbius) and 2) after these next two Spider-man movies (the Disney event and the stand-alone Spider-man movie) Tom Holand’s contract is up. Now Tom is under contract with Sony, but I could see him moving to Marvel/Disney. If the Morbius movie flops, Sony’s position weakens even further.

I would actually ask what's in it for Sony under that theoretical scenario. Sony giving up production rights and retaining distribution rights in perpetuity (a la Universal and Hulk) would mean they are giving up something they have now in exchange for a little better deal on the distribution front. Thing is, though, Disney/Marvel would block Sony out quick. There would be no more Spider-man titular movies and they would just proceed to use the character and the rogue in other character's movies and in ensembles. Marvel kinda did Planet Hulk, at least references and overall theme, in Thor Raganarok. That's the reason why I would hope they would focus on getting that back from Universal so they can give us World War and Immortal Hulk movies.

Not to mention, their other franchises like Angry Birds, Men in Black and Charlie's Angels have been flopping lately. If this continues in 2020, they'll be forced to sell Spider-Man back to Marvel permanently. Maybe some of the behind the scenes situation might involve Marvel increasing their ownership to 50% early-to-mid next year.

I would argue that, if Sony doesn't sell and decides to keep SPE, then they would double down on Spider-man if all other franchises bomb and/or underperform. New data has come in and BOP now expects the new Jumanji to do about half of what Jumanji 2017 did. It has dropped from their initial forecast.

I think you are being a tad over optimistic and I think we still don't know if the 25/75 split is for the overall license or just SM3.

 

[Darkprime]

I would actually ask what's in it for Sony under that theoretical scenario. Sony giving up production rights and retaining distribution rights in perpetuity (a la Universal and Hulk) would mean they are giving up something they have now in exchange for a little better deal on the distribution front. Thing is, though, Disney/Marvel would block Sony out quick. There would be no more Spider-man titular movies and they would just proceed to use the character and the rogue in other character's movies and in ensembles. Marvel kinda did Planet Hulk, at least references and overall theme, in Thor Raganarok. That's the reason why I would hope they would focus on getting that back from Universal so they can give us World War and Immortal Hulk movies.

Not if Sony were smart and were somehow able to put it in the agreement to which the production rights were sold / reverted that Disney had fo keep producing a spiderman movie every 2 years.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Not if Sony were smart and were somehow able to put it in the agreement to which the production rights were sold / reverted that Disney had fo keep producing a spiderman movie every 2 years.

Why would Disney agree to another studio dictating when they should produce a movie? There's nothing in it for Disney in this scenario. And it's also a bad one for Sony too as they can't make money off different characters like Venom and spin offs like Spiderverse.

 

[Darkprime]

Why would Disney agree to another studio dictating when they should produce a movie? There's nothing in it for Disney in this scenario. And it's also a bad one for Sony too as they can't make money off different characters like Venom and spin offs like Spiderverse.

I think If Disney are that desperate to get the rights back they would agree to it. In exchange they may ask for more % of the profits though to make it worth it if Disney were to stick to a spidey movie every 2 years and not just block out Sony by not making Spidey movies.

 

[bartholomr4]

I think If Disney are that desperate to get the rights back they would agree to it. In exchange they may ask for more % of the profits though to make it worth it if Disney were to stick to a spidey movie every 2 years and not just block out Sony by not making Spidey movies.

This afternoon on CNBC's Half-time report, Mario Gabelli (large investor/billionaire) said he was investing in Sony. He said he thought Sony Pictures Entertainment would be merging with Paramount (CBS/Viacom). This could trigger the much rumored contract clause which would revert the Spider-verse Rights from Sony back to Marvel. Again speculation, but if true, Disney should be patient.

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

Wouldn’t the contract expire after they finished the upcoming Spider-Man universe films, and shows before they return to Marvel?

 

[bartholomr4]

Wouldn’t the contract expire after they finished the upcoming Spider-Man universe films, and shows before they return to Marvel?

I think there are two agreements in play. One the master license agreement (which Marvel signed before it was owned by Disney) which gave SPE the exclusive rights to the Spider-verse, and the second agreement a short term agreement for the films they will execute over the next 2-3 years. The rights to the Spider-verse are perpetual until a change in control (this has been speculated) or an agreement is made by Sony and Marvel to change the current agreement.

 

[Darkprime]

I think there are two agreements in play. One the master license agreement (which Marvel signed before it was owned by Disney) which gave SPE the exclusive rights to the Spider-verse, and the second agreement a short term agreement for the films they will execute over the next 2-3 years. The rights to the Spider-verse are perpetual until a change in control (this has been speculated) or an agreement is made by Sony and Marvel to change the current agreement.

Maybe Viacom might be more open to selling the IP if they ever bought Sony. As far as I know whoever owns Spider-Man can only ever sell it back to Disney anyway right cause something in the contract?

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

I think there are two agreements in play. One the master license agreement (which Marvel signed before it was owned by Disney) which gave SPE the exclusive rights to the Spider-verse, and the second agreement a short term agreement for the films they will execute over the next 2-3 years. The rights to the Spider-verse are perpetual until a change in control (this has been speculated) or an agreement is made by Sony and Marvel to change the current agreement.

I meant with the contract clause, and the remaining films they are working on.

 

[Darkprime]

There's some speculation on twitter marvel might have gotten Universal's marvel rights back somehow.

 

[bartholomr4]

There's some speculation on twitter marvel might have gotten Universal's marvel rights back somehow.

It’s great to speculate..... no proof. I had thought Disney would have made that deal when they struck the deal for the purchase and control of Hulu.... it would be a total surprise.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I think If Disney are that desperate to get the rights back they would agree to it. In exchange they may ask for more % of the profits though to make it worth it if Disney were to stick to a spidey movie every 2 years and not just block out Sony by not making Spidey movies.

Objectively speaking, do you think Disney is desperate at all? I just don't see your scenario playing out in any way shape or form.

There's some speculation on twitter marvel might have gotten Universal's marvel rights back somehow.

This is just two random people chatting. Nothing to see here.

It’s great to speculate..... no proof. I had thought Disney would have made that deal when they struck the deal for the purchase and control of Hulu.... it would be a total surprise.

I remember a lot of us speculating about that. Very surprising they didn't do it then (along with theme park rights). That Hulu deal was not cheap in any way, so it would have been a good time to get those outstanding Marvel rights. Michael Paull said they are interested in getting all MCU movies on Disney+ so it would be interesting to see if they are going to try to negotiate to either acquire or license those rights.

 

[brodie999]

Bob Iger says Disney is interested in buying the "James Bond" IP.

 

[Darkprime]

Here's a random ? Do you think Disney would ever consider selling off Lucasfilm? In the eyes of many the sequel trilogy and spin-off movies were a failure under Disneys watch the best thing they've managed to produce is the Mandalorian and even that has been getting criticized recently. The only reason I think they wont consider selling off Lucasfilm is they would lose the Star Wars franchise on Disney+. Unless they came to an agreement with a potential new buyer that they could keep the previous movies on Disney+ for like 5 years or something. Which would be a tough sell to another studio. But if another studio was desperate enough for a nostalgic driven IP like Star Wars...some sort of deal like that might be possible. Plus with a lot of people in the industry saying Disney as it currently stands is starting to look like a monopoly selling Lucasfilm could alleviate some anti-trust concerns. Just some food for thought. Personally id love to see Star Wars/Lucasfilm land at WB or Universal.

 

[bartholomr4]

Here's a random ? Do you think Disney would ever consider selling off Lucasfilm? In the eyes of many the sequel trilogy and spin-off movies were a failure under Disneys watch the best thing they've managed to produce is the Mandalorian and even that has been getting criticized recently. The only reason I think they wont consider selling off Lucasfilm is they would lose the Star Wars franchise on Disney+. Unless they came to an agreement with a potential new buyer that they could keep the previous movies on Disney+ for like 5 years or something. Which would be a tough sell to another studio. But if another studio was desperate enough for a nostalgic driven IP like Star Wars...some sort of deal like that might be possible. Plus with a lot of people in the industry saying Disney as it currently stands is starting to look like a monopoly selling Lucasfilm could alleviate some anti-trust concerns. Just some food for thought. Personally id love to see Star Wars/Lucasfilm land at WB or Universal.

Never going to happen. They value the franchise so much differently than block-buster big tent movies. Consumer Products by it self is a reason to retain the asset.

 

[Darkprime]

Universal In Talks To Take Lego Movie Rights

Hollywood Chases Lego Movie Rights

deadline.com

Could Disney be in the mix for the lego movie rights?

Universal is leading the pack of several studios chasing the rights to make future Lego movies.

 

[matt78]

Here's a random ? Do you think Disney would ever consider selling off Lucasfilm? In the eyes of many the sequel trilogy and spin-off movies were a failure under Disneys watch the best thing they've managed to produce is the Mandalorian and even that has been getting criticized recently. The only reason I think they wont consider selling off Lucasfilm is they would lose the Star Wars franchise on Disney+. Unless they came to an agreement with a potential new buyer that they could keep the previous movies on Disney+ for like 5 years or something. Which would be a tough sell to another studio. But if another studio was desperate enough for a nostalgic driven IP like Star Wars...some sort of deal like that might be possible. Plus with a lot of people in the industry saying Disney as it currently stands is starting to look like a monopoly selling Lucasfilm could alleviate some anti-trust concerns. Just some food for thought. Personally id love to see Star Wars/Lucasfilm land at WB or Universal.

Wouldn't it just make more sense to put new people in charge at Lucasfilms.

Would it make sense for Disney to trade an ownership stake in Hulu for the rights to Spider-Man? As far as I know Sony only has FunimationNow as a streaming service and that is anime only. Sony's other streaming efforts have all seemed to fail. This seems like a win-win for both companies since it would give Sony a legit outlet for its shows and would also benefit Disney in that not only do they get the rights to Spider-Man but it also keeps Sony from selling its streaming rights to one of Disney+/Hulu's competitors or trying to start their own service.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I don't mean to sound like a jerk, but I don't know where you guys come up with some of these hypotheticals. They will simply never happen.

Objectively speaking Disney is not selling LFL for less than IDK 100B or whatever astronomical number your mind can come up with that no one in their right mind would pay for. It's a great asset and while the ST was handled poorly the world of SW is gigantic and can go in multiple directions. The fact that Mandalorian and Baby Yoda is all the buzz right now proves that the SW is huge. That's before we talk about LucasArts, Indiana Jones, IL&M, Skywalker Sound. Disney got Lucas for pennies on the dollar and they ain't selling it. Star Wars mainline is fragmented now, but it is salvageable.

Likewise, Hulu is worth significantly more than Spider-man full IP rights with a much bigger upside, let alone movie and limited TV show rights. It's not even close. How big of an ownership stake are we talking about Disney giving Sony here? Hulu went from being worth 8-9B prior to the Fox closing to 15B when they bought AT&T's 10% share on the entity to a floor of 27.5B when Disney and Comcast reached a deal. All this happened in about a year's time.

Its value will only go up especially as things like FX Now is coming next year and full integration with Disney+ and ESPN+ will eventually happen.

 

[matt78]

Obviously they wouldn't give up a stake larger then what they value Spider-Man at. I just think it would benefit Disney to keep Sony's catalogue from Netflix, AT&T, Amazon and Apple and this would be a way to do it without them having to buy Sony Pictures. I also never said that could or should happen. I was just wondering if it made any kind of sense.