Disney's Next Acquisition Speculation / Discussion

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Totally agree, and pray it is not Chapek.... I really think Kevin Mayer is the choice the board will make (not mine) because he has been Iger's strategic thinker and "Fix-it" guy. He has the best grasp of all of the Disney businesses, where Chapek is just a bean counter.... probably a good one, but he doesn't have the chops to run this company.

I performed some consulting for the Disney C-suite in 2014. I learned a great deal about how Iger thinks about these individual divisions and how he is more of a peace maker and a cajoler (making everyone work together). You need to be a diplomat of the highest order to run this company. Mayer has these skills. Counting beans and /or trading commodities (i.e. Chapek) will not sit well with all the ego's which run this firm, and letting the ego's be what they are, is key to driving the story......

Yes certainly. I think Mayer is probably the front runner. He spearheaded the deal with Verizon, was an integral part in getting the Hulu deal with Comcast, and one of the key pieces for the Fox acquisition. He also got promoted to head the whole division. IMO the only way he doesn't get it is if Disney+ fumbles and/or the division struggles a lot more than expected (including lack of growth in Hulu and ESPN+). The possibilities of that are pretty low.

Next CEO will want to leave their mark as well. Whether you hate the previous CEOs they had some good acquisitions and initiatives. Eisner acquired ABC (which includes ESPN and A&E), Miramax, Fox Family Network (now Freeform), got control of Anaheim Ducks and Anaheim Angels (smartly had the name of the teams as Anaheim), started DVC, Disney Stores, Disney Cruises, launched Hollywood Studios, Disney Paris, Animal Kingdom, California Adventure, Tokyo Sea (OLC). Iger acquired Pixar, Marvel, Lucas, Muppets, BamTech, Fox, Hulu, started D23, and launched Disney Shanghai, Disney+, ESPN+.

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

Whoever is the next CEO would have to work hard to keep Fox from being ripped from Disney.

 

[Indy_UK]

I’ll be honest, I’m a tad worried about Fox, Disney bought them and essentially doubled the size of their company but atm Fox seems almost non existent with still no plans on how they are using them.

We assume Fox will be the label for content that doesn’t fit the Disney name and most of the content will move to Hulu but they are keeping awfully quiet about it

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

I’ll be honest, I’m a tad worried about Fox, Disney bought them and essentially doubled the size of their company but atm Fox seems almost non existent with still no plans on how they are using them.

We assume Fox will be the label for content that doesn’t fit the Disney name and most of the content will move to Hulu but they are keeping awfully quiet about it

I’m referring to keeping Fox from breaking from Disney by a Disney hating democrat.

 

[brodie999]

Bob Iger says Disney isn't planning another acquisition at least until 2022 after he retires.

 

[Darkprime]

Bob Iger says Disney isn't planning another acquisition at least until 2022 after he retires.

Would they consider Spider-Man on the same level as Marvel or Star Wars? Also 2022 would be right around when the current Spidey deal expires..curious.

 

[brodie999]

Would they consider Spider-Man on the same level as Marvel or Star Wars? Also 2022 would be right around when the current Spidey deal expires..curious.

I agree. If Kevin Mayer becomes the next CEO(which is becoming Increasingly likely), he could continue Iger's expansion through acquisition strategy by bringing Lionsgate or even Sony under their umbrella. 2022 is the same year it's rumoured Disney and Sony could make a third Spidey deal.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Would they consider Spider-Man on the same level as Marvel or Star Wars? Also 2022 would be right around when the current Spidey deal expires..curious.

Any distribution acquisitions or IP reacquisitions is not in what Iger was saying. He's also saying he wouldn't pass up anything if the opportunity came along, but they are not looking at anything right now. Timing works with what I said before, not looking to buy anything until Iger is gone.

I agree. If Kevin Mayer becomes the next CEO(which is becoming Increasingly likely), he could continue Iger's expansion through acquisition strategy by bringing Lionsgate or even Sony under their umbrella. 2022 is the same year it's rumoured Disney and Sony could make a third Spidey deal.

Mayer is not going to pursue buying Sony or Lionsgate. It literally makes no sense for them to do so. Games or music publishing/label if they want to go to an area where they are not that good.

 

[brodie999]

Any distribution acquisitions or IP reacquisitions is not in what Iger was saying. He's also saying he wouldn't pass up anything if the opportunity came along, but they are not looking at anything right now. Timing works with what I said before, not looking to buy anything until Iger is gone.



Mayer is not going to pursue buying Sony or Lionsgate. It literally makes no sense for them to do so. Games or music publishing/label if they want to go to an area where they are not that good.

Well, he could pay his attention to Activision Blizzard, but he's also more likely to acquire a movie studio with more global reach. That's why I think he MIGHT pursue Sony or Lionsgate.

 

[bartholomr4]

Any distribution acquisitions or IP reacquisitions is not in what Iger was saying. He's also saying he wouldn't pass up anything if the opportunity came along, but they are not looking at anything right now. Timing works with what I said before, not looking to buy anything until Iger is gone.



Mayer is not going to pursue buying Sony or Lionsgate. It literally makes no sense for them to do so. Games or music publishing/label if they want to go to an area where they are not that good.

I would also say these decisions are not one-sided..... The trigger to the next “acqusition” or “change in exclusive rights” may not be trigged by Disney at all.... Instead it may be triggered by Sony or Lionsgate or Apple or Amazon themselves based on the fact that their marketshare and ability to thrive in this space is deteriorating at an extremely rapid pace. They may be ready to make a move before Iger or Meyer would choose.

 

[Darkprime]

Any distribution acquisitions or IP reacquisitions is not in what Iger was saying. He's also saying he wouldn't pass up anything if the opportunity came along, but they are not looking at anything right now. Timing works with what I said before, not looking to buy anything until Iger is gone.



Mayer is not going to pursue buying Sony or Lionsgate. It literally makes no sense for them to do so. Games or music publishing/label if they want to go to an area where they are not that good.

what about the New CEO who will no doubt want to make a splash and a big entrance...getting Spidey back would do that. Maybe Iger is the one who starts the talks and the new CEO is the one who actually signs the deal?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

https://www.thewrap.com/disney-plus-kevin-mayer-dealmaker-bully/

This is a good read on Kevin Mayer. Dude sounds like a very driven person, but also not the most pleasant person to work for. He was a lineman in college, so he has that jock mentality.

what about the New CEO who will no doubt want to make a splash and a big entrance...getting Spidey back would do that. Maybe Iger is the one who starts the talks and the new CEO is the one who actually signs the deal?

That all depends on the situation. New CEO is not gonna wanna spend the rumored 5B amount to buy up Spider-man movie and tv rights from Sony, even if it includes distribution to all previous work. I estimated that to be worth about 2-2.25B IIRC (with a premium). @bartholomr4 estimated it to be worth about 1.7B IIRC. Iger was able to convince the board on the 7.4B for Pixar in 2006 due to a) Pixar leaving to go to another studio and b) The criticality that it was for Disney to be the leaders in animation and WDA struggling creatively and financially at the time. It was a great ROI and a great move.

Mayer would have to convince the board of the same (i.e. how pivotal Spider-man is to keep the MCU going and how SPE will devalue the franchise and merchandise sales). If he can do that then maybe he can convince the board to spend that kind of capital.

On the side of M&A - if Mayer does become CEO - one should expect Disney to make more big acquisitions and investments under his wing. From the above:

But he did move to transform the company into the dominant force in Hollywood that it has become. He played an integral role in the acquisition of Pixar in 2006. From there, Mayer led the push to acquire Marvel, Lucasfilm and the Fox assets. “The whole franchise strategy that Bob went after — that was Kevin. He did that deal,” the media executive close to Mayer said. “Marvel was Kevin. Lucas was Kevin’s idea. Everyone thought it was too rich. Kevin was the architect.”

Indeed, one former top-level Disney executive told TheWrap that it took a while to get Iger excited about the prospect of acquiring Marvel, which cost a then-stunning $4 billion but has reaped $18 billion at the global box office since 2012. “We had to talk him into a meeting,” the executive said, recalling that during the meeting Mayer pushed points to a degree that would annoy Iger.

From a media and entertainment perspective Disney is behind and lacks the expertise in gaming and music. I would expect Mayer to want to grow in both of those areas along with keep growing Parks and Resorts (which includes cruise lines). Both Eisner and Iger opened at least one resort under their watch. The next CEO will want something like that as well.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

From Bloomberg

Even with an archive like Disney’s, its streaming operations won’t be immediately profitable after Disney+ launches. MoffettNathanson LLC, a media and technology investment firm, expects its three services to lose a combined $11 billion over the next four years, then finally turn a profit in 2024.

 

[bartholomr4]

From Bloomberg

Its the amount of the losses and how they are shrinking now that revenue starts to come in (in the next quarter). Because revenue comes in and offsets any losses, the investment needs will be lower, so in that respect it will positively impact the earnings.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Its the amount of the losses and how they are shrinking now that revenue starts to come in (in the next quarter). Because revenue comes in and offsets any losses, the investment needs will be lower, so in that respect it will positively impact the earnings.

Disney wants to offset those losses with profits from P&R, Media Nets and the international of DTCI ASAP. The street won’t be receptive to another major acquisition if DTC’s loses are not cancelled out in the short to medium term.

 

[Darkprime]

The mouse gets what the mouse wants eventually...

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

The mouse gets what the mouse wants eventually...

Most interesting telltale sign to me is that they have a "Spider verse" collection on Disney+. I think Disney wants to have the whole IP outright it's just a matter of agreeing on a number. However, I agree with @seascape that acquisition of Miramax to boost Hulu's library would be better (and way cheaper) especially as NBCU and Warner's content is getting pulled.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Disney could always do a carve out with Sony/Starz for PayTV/SVOD rights to the Spider Man films. (Sony Animation, like Illumination, has an SVOD deal with Netflix)

 

[Darkprime]

Ive been thinking about the July 2023 date Disney has booked for a Marvel movie. Cant help but feel like something is happening behind the scenes with Spidey. Mikey Sutton is teasing a scoop for Wednesday. He teased it with a picture of Tom Holland and a Spiders web with the caption "I know y'all have been waiting for some time. " He also said Sony and Disney will collaborate on Spider-Man 4 for a 2023 release. How nuts would it be if they announce Spidey is back in December like the Fox deal in December 2017? Not saying thats what Mikey is teasing. But its curious indeed.

I cant help but wonder if maybe Sony would be willing to give up production rights like Universal did for Hulk but retain distribution rights? Sony at least seem to be willing to keep working with Disney unlike Universal. They would get to be the exclusive distributor of Spidey films while splitting the profit with Disney and Feige and Co would gain full creative control. Maybe its just wishful thinking on my part but could it be something they would consider?

 

[bartholomr4]

Ive been thinking about the July 2023 date Disney has booked for a Marvel movie. Cant help but feel like something is happening behind the scenes with Spidey. Mikey Sutton is teasing a scoop for Wednesday. He teased it with a picture of Tom Holland and a Spiders web with the caption "I know y'all have been waiting for some time. " He also said Sony and Disney will collaborate on Spider-Man 4 for a 2023 release. How nuts would it be if they announce Spidey is back in December like the Fox deal in December 2017? Not saying thats what Mikey is teasing. But its curious indeed.

I cant help but wonder if maybe Sony would be willing to give up production rights like Universal did for Hulk but retain distribution rights? Sony at least seem to be willing to keep working with Disney unlike Universal. They would get to be the exclusive distributor of Spidey films while splitting the profit with Disney and Feige and Co would gain full creative control. Maybe its just wishful thinking on my part but could it be something they would consider?

What would be in it for Disney? Disney already has a pseudo “creative control” and Sony is begging Disney to step into its other Spider-verse movies. If Sony try’s to leave the relationship with Marvel Studios again, the fan back-lash will be even greater. They blinked this time and not doing so again, will be brutal.

Two events I am watching: 1) the success / failure of the next non-spider-man Sony Marvel production (Morbius) and 2) after these next two Spider-man movies (the Disney event and the stand-alone Spider-man movie) Tom Holand’s contract is up. Now Tom is under contract with Sony, but I could see him moving to Marvel/Disney. If the Morbius movie flops, Sony’s position weakens even further.