Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

[doctornick]

The future of the movie theater experience is gone.0

I foresee the future for smaller (i.e. Oscar bait) films increasingly shifting to VOD and streaming - something that had already been occrring but will accelerate - but tentpoles will still be a theater mainstay once the pandemic ends. Big budget event films will still need the large hype and numbers of being shown in theaters and that's really Disney's forte at this point (more than any other film studio).

In regards to Disney, I'm curious if they'll shift more of their smaller stuff to VOD or directly to Disney+ (or Hulu/Star). It's happening now with the pandemic but could be a permanent shift in the future even when theaters are an option.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

It's SOP for Comcast.

I’m talking about Mulan.

 

[doctornick]

But that "first run theatrical experience" will be no different than when it's "free". You're paying $30 to watch it early. That's the only benefit to paying extra for it.

Correct. And? I'm not sure I understand your point here.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I believe someone else needs to come in and infuse some new magic (JD), but not Bill Gates.

JD?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I’m talking about Mulan.

Me too...about the "first run" movies being for a fee then months down the line being free. See my post above. Disney would be crazy not to follow a similar procedure.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

You assume it will be free later.

If it's not, Mulan will be the most popular movie on BitTorrent in 2020.

 

[brianstl]

This isn’t pointed at anyone here, but I would advise everyone to look up some accounting principles (Wikipedia is fine) regarding GAAP.

These quarterly calls are “snapshots” of a very small window in time. It takes years for small businesses to make a profit, and it will years for TWDC to realize any profits and losses on their operations. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and TWDC won’t close because of a bad quarter or two.

Income statement and balance sheet are good places to start.

This is cap from the report. Unless I am reading this incorrectly the $5 billion impairment is being reported as income.

 

[doctornick]

That’s the thing... why connect the release to Disney+ at all?

I’m just glad they came up with this brilliant idea after they released Hamilton cause I do enjoy watching that anytime I want!

I've been wondering that as well. It sounds move like they are using the Disney+ app as a platform more than it really being "on" Disney+ since you apparently don't have to be a Disney+ subscriber to buy it. I'm not sure why they went that way. My guesses off the cuff:

1. To get non-subscribers to download the Disney app to buy Mulan and then hope that it might drive subscriptions in the future. Seems dubious...

2. To use their own platform so they can cut out the middle man (and cost) of other VOD platforms. More likely.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

JD?

Josh

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Me too...about the "first run" movies being for a fee then months down the line being free. See my post above. Disney would be crazy not to follow a similar procedure.

I think they’re testing the waters of it not being free...it’s “premium” content requiring a higher tier subscription...sounds a lot like AP tiers.

 

[doctornick]

You assume it will be free later.

Is there even the slightest reason to think that it wouldn't be?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I think they’re testing the waters of it not being free...it’s “premium” content requiring a higher tier subscription...sounds a lot like AP tiers.

Very well could be. Hulu already has that.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You assume it will be free later.

I'm having trouble thinking of a theatrically released movie (which Mulan will be in some markets) that when it went to VoD, stayed VoD-only forever. Can you?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Josh

Omg...way overestimating what a minion can do.

What I meant was that i think Disney would be better served as a private company.

Stock markets reward dumb decisions for immediate returns and penalizing sound decisions that ensure more longterm quality...

That’s pretty incompatible if you don’t want Disney to flame out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm having trouble thinking of a theatrically released movie (which Mulan will be in some markets) that when it went to VoD, stayed VoD-only forever. Can you?

It will be on Disney+ in short order. Wait 3 months if you want to save enough to buy a pizza.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I'm having trouble thinking of a theatrically released movie (which Mulan will be in some markets) that when it went to VoD, stayed VoD-only forever. Can you?

It will be called “Disney+Passport” - would it ever stay the same $30? No. But I can see it being available for an additional $4.99 for 24 hours, in addition to your monthly fee.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Omg...way overestimating what a minion can do.

What I meant was that i thing Disney would be better served as a private company.

Stock markets reward dumb decisions for immediate returns and penalizing sound decisions that ensure more longterm qualify...

That’s pretty incompatible if you don’t Disney to flame out.

I agree with you 100%. I don't think going public works well in the long-term for in-person, service-based companies.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Omg...way overestimating what a minion can do.

What I meant was that i thing Disney would be better served as a private company.

Stock markets reward dumb decisions for immediate returns and penalizing sound decisions that ensure more longterm qualify...

That’s pretty incompatible if you don’t Disney to flame out.

I agree, and they’ve only stayed alive because of Iger’s M&A moves.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

This is cap from the report. Unless I am reading this incorrectly the $5 billion impairment is being reported as income.

View attachment 489040

Can you print out where you see that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It will be called “Disney+Passport” - would it ever stay the same $30? No. But I can see it being available for an additional $4.99 for 24 hours, in addition to your monthly fee.

Now I think you’re overestimating the demand for Disney content.
The reason Disney + is thriving in subscribers is its cheap and easy...

They aren’t gonna parlay that into a fee based consumption model. Especially a PG only platform that needs a lot more content.

Think that’s an overvalue of what they have.