Disneyland to customers: Visit us now! Ahora! That means NOW! Please?

[TP2000]

This is giving me deja vu. It's like February 2001 all over again.

February, 2001, Los Angeles Times quotes George Kalogridis, then Operations Vice President for the Disneyland Resort concerned about an over-crowded DCA: "Come early in the day or come later, after the park clears out again, hopefully, with Disneyland right across the esplanade and Downtown Disney right there, we won't have to turn people away from the resort."

June, 2019, Disney Parks Blog quotes Kris Theiler, Disneyland Vice President concerned about a lack of crowds at Disneyland: “When you add a new area to the park, it adds capacity and has a positive impact on the whole park, so there is no better time to visit the Disneyland Resort than now.”

Ahora!

 

[Darkbeer1]

Look at that, I found the article I mentioned in my OP (and to prove I wasn't crazy lol):

https:///2018/12/star-wars-galaxys-edge-crowds-disneyland/

"According to Blooloop, experts predict enormous crowds, swamped parking lots, and 10-hour lines. Bill Zanetti, who teaches theme park courses at the University of Central Florida, expects 200,000 guests to descend on Disneyland for the debut of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. “The number is based on what I believe is the actual interest,” he said. “That’s just how many people I expect to descend on the resort on the first opening day.” Touring Plans, which uses statistical analysis to predict crowd sizes and wait times at the parks, places the estimated number of guests at 150,000. The company predicts 8 – 10-hour lines just to get into Disneyland."

While I think 200 thousand people showing up sounded a bit crazy (especially since one is coming at WDW a few months later) they were probably not wrong it would've been enough people to shut the park down and have people wait for hours just to enter DL, much less GE. Remember the 24 hour 60th anniversary event did exactly that as well (which I was there and NEVER got into the park) and that was just for a new fireworks show and parade.

But it was also these kind of hysterical warnings that told everybody who DIDN'T care about GE to not bother going to the park for awhile.

Could that be a prediction for June 24th?

 

[shortstop]

Well according to @TP2000, the Orange County register is saying Disney is going to offer more more reservations. Hopefully they keep it comfortable.

I just read the story. They aren’t letting new guests make reservations - rather, if you already have a reservation, you will have the opportunity to add additional guests to your reservation.

 

[TP2000]

Look at that, I found the article I mentioned in my OP (and to prove I wasn't crazy lol):

https:///2018/12/star-wars-galaxys-edge-crowds-disneyland/

"According to Blooloop, experts predict enormous crowds, swamped parking lots, and 10-hour lines. Bill Zanetti, who teaches theme park courses at the University of Central Florida, expects 200,000 guests to descend on Disneyland for the debut of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. “The number is based on what I believe is the actual interest,” he said. “That’s just how many people I expect to descend on the resort on the first opening day.” Touring Plans, which uses statistical analysis to predict crowd sizes and wait times at the parks, places the estimated number of guests at 150,000. The company predicts 8 – 10-hour lines just to get into Disneyland."

While I think 200 thousand people showing up sounded a bit crazy (especially since one is coming at WDW a few months later) they were probably not wrong it would've been enough people to shut the park down and have people wait for hours just to enter DL, much less GE. Remember the 24 hour 60th anniversary event did exactly that as well (which I was there and NEVER got into the park) and that was just for a new fireworks show and parade.

But it was also these kind of hysterical warnings that told everybody who DIDN'T care about GE to not bother going to the park for awhile.

I'd forgotten about that article, thank you for reminding us!

I would love it if the LA Times or someone not as beholden to Disneyland as the OC Register would call Professor Zanetti back and ask him what happened?

 

[mickEblu]

IsItPacked.com says otherwise. And other calendars said low to moderate crowds.

Isitpacked.com are wrong a lot. But Isn’t that what you re asking, if it’s normal for the crowds to be low this time of year? What I was trying to say with my example was the crowds may usually be lower in early June but nowhere near how low they were the other day.

 

[JD2000]

It is wrong to believe one time, limited reservations would mean bigger crowds, no?

 

[JD2000]

Isitpacked.com are wrong a lot. But Isn’t that what you re asking, if it’s normal for the crowds to be low this time of year? What I was trying to say with my example was the crowds may usually be lower in early June but nowhere near how low they were the other day.

I see. And that is the consensus here? Perhaps it is.

 

[TP2000]

I see. And that is the consensus here? Perhaps it is.

Yes, I would agree with @mickEblu that the low wait times of the last week in both parks are abnormally low for early June.

And right now at 5:08pm Pacific Time, Millenium Falcon has only a 15 minute wait time on the Disneyland App. That's ridiculous for the first Disneyland E Ticket in 25 years. But then Guardians of the Galaxy, the second newest E Ticket also themed to a hot IP, is also currently running only a 15 minute Standby wait. Wow!

They screwed up the amount of people they are letting in to Star Wars Land each day, but they've sort of painted themselves into a corner with marketing and such for the reservations that they can't just throw open the doors and let everyone in.

Obviously from what we've seen announced and how their marketing message has changed this week, there is a deepening sense of panic in Anaheim. It's fascinating to watch play out in real time here.

 

[DanielBB8]

They can easily unblock the Deluxe and SoCal APs. Just return the Annual Pass blockouts to what it was before.

 

[fctiger]

Maybe their internals are showing more than just a one-week problem afoot. Could it be that bookings and park-hopper sales are down into July and August?

Could it be that the masses anxiously awaiting June 24th to rush in and try out all the new attractions aren't turning out to be so massive after all?

If that was the case, three weeks of reservations wouldn't have sold out in 2 hours lol. I think there is still MASSIVE interest to see this land, Disney simply found a way to clamp down on it a bit. But if this land was open to everyone today the lines would be ridiculous.

I mean, there was a 7 hour line for GOTG MB on its opening day and Pixar Pier had a 5 hour wait on its opening day to experience Incredicoaster. These are basically nothing more than lay overs of existing rides and Pixar Pier was just a quick and cheap layover. I can't begin to imagine how things would look now if their brand new Star Wars land with actual original E ticket rides would look like if it just opened like those did.

 

[mickEblu]

I just read the story. They aren’t letting new guests make reservations - rather, if you already have a reservation, you will have the opportunity to add additional guests to your reservation.

Selfishly, this is good news for me. 6/22 may be a good day after all. Especially since it’s a Saturday and Deluxe APs and lower are blacked out. Not to mention the fact that if someone is going to buy a day ticket to DL, they re most likely not going to do it two days before SWL opens unless they are in the know and want to enjoy a pleasant day at DL with low crowds.

Sorry @shortstop i just don’t want to wait 2 hours for the Falcon. Lol

Anyway, If anyone is looking for a great day to go to DL, 6/22 may be a really good one unless of course they make some changes before then.

 

[fctiger]

I'd forgotten about that article, thank you for reminding us!

I would love it if the LA Times or someone not as beholden to Disneyland as the OC Register would call Professor Zanetti back and ask him what happened?

Thank you but to be fair we know what happened. Disney made it a reservation system instead and ruled out any stand by lines in the process. Why would thousands of people show up for a land Disney has warned they couldn't get in without a reservation?

 

[The_Mesh_Hatter]

To be fair, the land isn’t really even open yet. Let’s see how things are after June 24.

 

[shambolicdefending]

If that was the case, three weeks of reservations wouldn't have sold out in 2 hours lol. I think there is still MASSIVE interest to see this land, Disney simply found a way to clamp down on it a bit. But if this land was open to everyone today the lines would be ridiculous.

I mean, there was a 7 hour line for GOTG MB on its opening day and Pixar Pier had a 5 hour wait on its opening day to experience Incredicoaster. These are basically nothing more than lay overs of existing rides and Pixar Pier was just a quick and cheap layover. I can't begin to imagine how things would look now if their brand new Star Wars land with actual original E ticket rides would look like if it just opened like those did.

I agree, we do not have a DCA 1.0 on our hands here. But, I'm also starting to think that the crowds and demand won't be THAT bad once the reservations lift. Long lines, stupid wait times? Sure. Like you said, even new overlays get that. But, probably not the equivalent of two Rose Bowls showing up in one day like some experts predicted.

 

[fctiger]

Could that be a prediction for June 24th?

It very well could. Although maybe not AS bad since obviously thousands are seeing it now. But yes I'm all but positive MF;SR is going to go from a 30 minute wait today to a 3-5 hour wait come June 24th. And probably an 8 hour stand by to enter the Cantina.

 

[TP2000]

To be fair, the land isn’t really even open yet. Let’s see how things are after June 24.

But that's when all the summer blockouts kick in for the lower AP levels from Deluxe on down, plus an assumed continuation of the employee blockouts through the summer.

I think the real test is going to be whenever the Resistance ride opens in October or November (hopefully). A Friday night in late October when AP's are unblocked, or a Sunday in early November, should be the real test.

I think the level of obvious TDA panic just in the first week of operation shows that they will back off massively on any type of reservation system in the future, and the land's "virtual queue" will get its numbers pumped up before it even debuts on June 24th.

 

[fctiger]

They can easily unblock the Deluxe and SoCal APs. Just return the Annual Pass blockouts to what it was before.

The crazy thing is they did that last year in early June when the park wasn't getting the attendance as hoped and even did a 'add a friend' program to get people discount tickets if they go with someone who already had an AP.

Which proves over and over again, Disney does NOT want a less crowded park. They want it as busy as possible all year long. They only did the reservation system because they were just worried it was going to turn into a melee and wanted to control the chaos better. I think they are doing a great job on that but in Disney's eyes, apparently its too good of a job lol.

But I wouldn't be shocked if they gave both those passes those blocked dates back, at least for this month. And they MAY even fool with the idea of making a stand by line to GE (but I really hope not) if its lighter than they expected. I imagine in 2 weeks time most of this will be moot though.

 

[fctiger]

I agree, we do not have a DCA 1.0 on our hands here. But, I'm also starting to think that the crowds and demand won't be THAT bad once the reservations lift. Long lines, stupid wait times? Sure. Like you said, even new overlays get that. But, probably not the equivalent of two Rose Bowls showing up in one day like some experts predicted.

I NEVER believed it was going to be as bad, because once again. people seem to forget they are building two of these things. And that alone was always going to clamp down on the crowds a bit which lands like WWOHP and Pandora didn't have. There will be tons of people who normally vacation at WDW will simply wait for it to open there. The hardcore SW fans will show up in Anaheim and to shout first, but I imagine more casual fans (which makes up most of SW fandom) will just see it in the resort they already spend their time in.

So thats going to detour a lot of people who would probably make a special trip to come to DL not to bother. It really does prove Disney knew what they were creating and would do everything to both meet demand but also not to turn it into chaos.

 

[Touchdown]

They can easily unblock the Deluxe and SoCal APs. Just return the Annual Pass blockouts to what it was before.

Except they don’t want to do that, they want those people to buy flex passes instead and give them more control about how many APs they let in. I really think that they will take the pain of a more quiet summer to force that switch because it seems clear to me that DL is moving towards 4 tiers of passes:
-Weekday Select
-Flex (which they hope is the most popular pass)
-Signature (I expect Signature to go away and Signature Plus to be the only option)
-Premiere

 

[mickEblu]

I NEVER believed it was going to be as bad, because once again. people seem to forget they are building two of these things. And that alone was always going to clamp down on the crowds a bit which lands like WWOHP and Pandora didn't have. There will be tons of people who normally vacation at WDW will simply wait for it to open there. The hardcore SW fans will show up in Anaheim and to shout first, but I imagine more casual fans (which makes up most of SW fandom) will just see it in the resort they already spend their time in.

So thats going to detour a lot of people who would probably make a special trip to come to DL not to bother. It really does prove Disney knew what they were creating and would do everything to both meet demand but also not to turn it into chaos.

This has been my take all along too. I also believe that A whole ton of Star Wars nerds are already Disneyland nerds and already have annual passes. So it’s not exactly bringing a whole new market to DL.