deeevo
Well-Known Member
Well if you include Star Wars and Marvel with the brand then the sky's the limit.
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Disney Posts Mixed Earnings $1.58/share on Rev of $14.24B
- Thread starter Chef Mickey
- Start date
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
Streaming is definitely the future. Whether or not most major sources of content become the exclusive singular point of distribution, I'm not sure.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Disney has enough supply. Others may need to join forces. In any case I will be a consumer of Disney whereas currently it is hit and miss. Star Wars is a must however and p&r when possible.
I look forward to catching up on Marvel in chronological order.
I am buying more shares under $101. I perceive this as an overreaction to a very slight revenue miss and some jitters about non park biz segments being down y/y. Operating income was down due to tough compares. I think investors get greedy and forget movies/consumer products are very seasonal.
ESPN is a drag, but they are addressing head on with another income stream in a subscription service. We'll see how that goes, but it's going to be incremental to cable revenue of today. Sure that's going down, but this should steady the ship.
ESPN is a drag, but they are addressing head on with another income stream in a subscription service. We'll see how that goes, but it's going to be incremental to cable revenue of today. Sure that's going down, but this should steady the ship.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
I Disagree with a CxO telling the audience what they WANT to hear and continuing to take actions which damage the BRAND and underlying business.
I don't expect a CFO to talk about attractions. I do expect them to admit when a business strategy has run its course.
Right now even while Tourism is up in MCO Disney is forced to offer huge incentives to visit.
A lot of people have been turned off by cost cuts like me and have stopped visiting.
One of the reasons CxO's are paid so obscenely is to deliver news the audience does not want to hear
A more appropriate message would have been the next two to four quarters will be challenging as we bring on new revenue streams as we are experiencing diminishing returns in finding additional cost reductions in a high touch customer service based business.
One takes intestinal fortitude, the response given was simply lazy.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Right now i'd be dumping shares if i had any to dump got rid of mine when it was at 114. This is just the first of many bad quarters for Disney
matt9112
Well-Known Member
don't have to be but this is Disney.....
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Where now they are mutually exclusive was not always like that.
rael ramone
Well-Known Member
Thoughts:
Adding a streaming ESPN is the correct decision. But if one defines 'fix' as 'maintain current margins & revenue', then a fix for this isn't coming. It's a needed adjustment for a new normal. A normal that will not allow the previous margins to continue. And that is with them hoping that Amazon implodes before they become much more aggressive in wanting to stream sports content of their own. How can they deliver any margin if Amazon comes fully into the space with their 'no margin' business model.
And they want to do a Disney streaming channel with original content specific to the streaming channel. Count me skeptical. Is the audience rejecting Disney Channel because of the medium, or because of the content?...
Right now on CNBC they have Todd Juengler, who has been labeled the #1 media analyst. He rates $DIS as 'aggresively neutral' w/ a $107 price target. Said he doesn't know why you need to own it (or any other media stock) now...
(Rich Greenfield is on Fast Money tonight at 5 Eastern US. too bad I'll be in bed for that one).
Another thing that jumped out to me was the big drop in films. 16%. Yes it's because of 3, not 4 super headliner films in the same period. But that highlights that $DIS is becoming more and more cyclical.
More cyclical means some investors will exit their positions because a $DIS holding adds risk to their portfolio. And yes, some like cyclicals, but they will most likely wait for what they believe to be a bottom before picking it up.
(Another thing I've noticed recently. In the past on Seeking Alpha there used to be so much pixie dust that it would make someone on a Disney Mom panel blush. Not anymore).
But as far as the parkgoer is concerned, there is much to be concerned about.
The CFO's comment about looking to further expand margins at P&R is not good news.
Margin isn't between what it costs them to do business and the revenue they receive. Margin is also between what you pay and what you get for your entertainment & vacation dollar.
And we know what they do to expand margin - price increases, upcharges, and cuts. And the first cut has already been announced. The closing of the Great Movie Ride is most definitely a cut. Yes new stuff is coming. Wall Street wants new stuff to monetize IP and bring in more revenue. If they did nothing, prices would go up, because that's what they do. All this new stuff (even if some of it is 'value engineered' down later) is expected to be Paid For by the Customers, and then some..... and some more..... and some more....
The question in the future is how much will a trip to the swamps cost. And what will you get for your money. How much of a 'Disney Experience' will a guest get out of the Basic Ticket, and how much will it cost to get the experience many of us are used to? And what happens when the next recession comes?
Adding a streaming ESPN is the correct decision. But if one defines 'fix' as 'maintain current margins & revenue', then a fix for this isn't coming. It's a needed adjustment for a new normal. A normal that will not allow the previous margins to continue. And that is with them hoping that Amazon implodes before they become much more aggressive in wanting to stream sports content of their own. How can they deliver any margin if Amazon comes fully into the space with their 'no margin' business model.
And they want to do a Disney streaming channel with original content specific to the streaming channel. Count me skeptical. Is the audience rejecting Disney Channel because of the medium, or because of the content?...
Right now on CNBC they have Todd Juengler, who has been labeled the #1 media analyst. He rates $DIS as 'aggresively neutral' w/ a $107 price target. Said he doesn't know why you need to own it (or any other media stock) now...
(Rich Greenfield is on Fast Money tonight at 5 Eastern US. too bad I'll be in bed for that one).
Another thing that jumped out to me was the big drop in films. 16%. Yes it's because of 3, not 4 super headliner films in the same period. But that highlights that $DIS is becoming more and more cyclical.
More cyclical means some investors will exit their positions because a $DIS holding adds risk to their portfolio. And yes, some like cyclicals, but they will most likely wait for what they believe to be a bottom before picking it up.
(Another thing I've noticed recently. In the past on Seeking Alpha there used to be so much pixie dust that it would make someone on a Disney Mom panel blush. Not anymore).
But as far as the parkgoer is concerned, there is much to be concerned about.
The CFO's comment about looking to further expand margins at P&R is not good news.
Margin isn't between what it costs them to do business and the revenue they receive. Margin is also between what you pay and what you get for your entertainment & vacation dollar.
And we know what they do to expand margin - price increases, upcharges, and cuts. And the first cut has already been announced. The closing of the Great Movie Ride is most definitely a cut. Yes new stuff is coming. Wall Street wants new stuff to monetize IP and bring in more revenue. If they did nothing, prices would go up, because that's what they do. All this new stuff (even if some of it is 'value engineered' down later) is expected to be Paid For by the Customers, and then some..... and some more..... and some more....
The question in the future is how much will a trip to the swamps cost. And what will you get for your money. How much of a 'Disney Experience' will a guest get out of the Basic Ticket, and how much will it cost to get the experience many of us are used to? And what happens when the next recession comes?
You'd definitely think that if you dumped your shares at $114. I have a lot of shares and my cost basis is well under current prices. I am planning to hold 20-30 years.
jakeman
Well-Known Member
Maybe what you want her to say isn't correct based on the data she has?
So the question now is: What is your personal price point for ESPN and overall Disney streaming services?
Personally, I don't get much from ESPN anymore. I hardly watch it, even for NFL coverage, so I'm not inclined to pay anything for it. Unless there is an immense catalog of movies available, the future Disney streaming service won't appeal to me at more than current Netflix pricing. And if they don't include some kind of family sharing at that price, like with Netflix, or they charge more for it, it's a no-go.
There are positives to this streaming announcement, but yet many ways they can screw it up.
Personally, I don't get much from ESPN anymore. I hardly watch it, even for NFL coverage, so I'm not inclined to pay anything for it. Unless there is an immense catalog of movies available, the future Disney streaming service won't appeal to me at more than current Netflix pricing. And if they don't include some kind of family sharing at that price, like with Netflix, or they charge more for it, it's a no-go.
There are positives to this streaming announcement, but yet many ways they can screw it up.
jakeman
Well-Known Member
It depends. If ESPN 3 is included then you've got a pretty good college draw there from September to March built in. They seem to be making a pretty big push into soccer. I would guess depending on how many broadcasting rights they can secure that could bolster the summer months (is that when soccer plays?).
Sports are generally personal, so it's going to vary from person to person, but I would wager it is going to depend on their sports offerings, not their talking head slate.
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
Those are the words I would only expect to hear from a C-Level when there are just three breaths of air left in the flooded quarters as the ship sinks completely into the sea.
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
For me? Probably $0. We aren't a big sports household so ESPN is never watched and our son has reached the age where Disney Junior and Disney XD is being quickly replaced with YouTube videos of various topics. I honestly don't think we'd miss it.
Which brings to mind a different point - streaming is already offering such a vast landscape of programming and younger viewers have much different viewing habits than I ever had. As I mentioned, my son can watch YouTube for hours. I don't get it, but it keeps him entertained. If Disney actually restricts themselves to a single POS for streaming content they could run the risk of being lost among the thousands of other growing possibilities a younger audience can choose from.
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ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Then that's a bad CxO who can't admit that all businesse strategies have a lifespan and change is both necessary and inevitable.
Example Sears COULD be where Amazon is today.
But they did not have the vision to put the catalog on the internet and leverage their physical plant and distribution network to deliver the goods.
The sad thing is the upfront investment would have been small. Just put a web interface on the catalog order system.
Yet down the the road from me is a family owned mail order house.
I built their first website, which was little more than a way to get their catalog and accept orders by email this was right when Sears was shutting down the catalog division.
They had the vision to realize that 'This internet thing' was going to fundamentally change their business model.
Yes they are still in business today bigger than ever and still family owned but they are the undisputed leader in their space because they had the vision and were willing to take a risk. Something Disney has forgotten how to do both creatively and business wise
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
My basis was $40, I think Disney is going to 0 and it will crash.
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
My point was simply that most if not all C-Levels will skillfully answer or report in the most positive manner legally possible.
Well if it went to $0, it will have crashed. No need to really say both.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
That's true but what separates the good from the great is the willingness to tell the truth