Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

I still need data to better tell me whether this is a Disney thing, or an industry thing.

As it seems to me a handful of films, including some from Disney, have had big money made, and the rest are… flailing.

It's the industry. Disney has the highest box office for any studio so far in 2023. If there's another studio folks feel is fairing better, I'd like to hear that argument.

Universal has had one smash (Mario) and gets consistent returns from there low- to mid-budget Blumhouse horror, but Renfeld bombed, Cocaine Bear underperformed, and the new Exorcist is suffering disastrous test screenings. Ruby Gillman is tracking to be an all-time flop (sadly showing the difficulty facing original animated IPs in the current climate). The Fast & Furious property is fading fast, with each release underperforming its predecessor. The Jurassic series is done for the foreseeable future and will have to be relaunched with an entirely new creative team and artistic direction at some future date. And while I agree Bad Guys and particularly Puss 2 were fantastic films, Elemental had a significantly bigger opening weekend then both!

Sony has a dependable IP in Spider-Man... as long as Lord and Miller continues to oversee the animated version and Feige guides the live-action iteration. Otherwise, every single decision Sony makes with the property is baffling, producing critical and box-office disasters, and they have very little beyond Spidey. In 2023, they've released bombs including 65 and the George Foreman biopic.

Paramount is largely dependent on Tom Cruise not aging. Dungeons and Dragons was a really great film and I hope they forge ahead with the IP, but it underperformed. Transformers Rise of the Beast had a nice opening but is falling fast. With Mission: Impossible, Scream, Sonic, and a promising TMNT relaunch, Paramount may be the best situated studio after Disney, but their box office total will still fall far short of the mouse.

WB is a disaster of historic proportions. They have the IPs but are led by the worst executive in the industry (one of the worst in the industry's history) and don't even have the money to release a full slate of films. They bet the house on The Flash, which is going to prove to be one of the biggest bombs of all time. Shazam flopped hard. Really, its not worth discussing WB very much, because its almost certainly going to be sold again or broken down for parts very soon.

Hollywood is in a transitional phase, but unlike some previous transitional phases (the advent of sound) its unclear what its transitioning into. The clearest analog is the 50s, when a combination of suburbanization, TV, and the Paramount decree left Hollywood panicked and adrift, sinking fortunes into blockbuster musicals trying to make the next Sound of Music but mostly producing colossal bombs. It took years for a new normal to take hold, but it did then and it will again. The entertainment industry thought theaters were dead and streaming was the only answer. That was a huge mistake. Now they have to figure out the balance. The industry thought foreign markets, in particular China, were a bottomless new reservoir of profit. That market has very largely disappeared in the last years for a variety of reasons. What we're seeing is a major industry realignment. A lot of things may change in Hollywood over the next years. But it isn't just a Disney problem.

 

[Casper Gutman]

And by the way, firing Kathleen Kennedy won't fix anything, because most of the rage at her is fueled by a very lucrative culture-war-hate industry rather then tied to reality, so as soon as she goes the folks screaming about her will just pick ANOTHER Star Wars target, because they aren't about to turn off the deep money stream that inciting rage provides.

(And yes, some folks do want to see Kennedy gone for their own reasons, separate from the rage machine - I'm looking at you, Raleigh - but that isn't where most of the noise is coming from)

 

[TalkingHead]

It's the industry. Disney has the highest box office for any studio so far in 2023. If there's another studio folks feel is fairing better, I'd like to hear that argument.

Universal has had one smash (Mario) and gets consistent returns from there low- to mid-budget Blumhouse horror, but Renfeld bombed, Cocaine Bear underperformed, and the new Exorcist is suffering disastrous test screenings. Ruby Gillman is tracking to be an all-time flop (sadly showing the difficulty facing original animated IPs in the current climate). The Fast & Furious property is fading fast, with each release underperforming its predecessor. The Jurassic series is done for the foreseeable future and will have to be relaunched with an entirely new creative team and artistic direction at some future date. And while I agree Bad Guys and particularly Puss 2 were fantastic films, Elemental had a significantly bigger opening weekend then both!

Sony has a dependable IP in Spider-Man... as long as Lord and Miller continues to oversee the animated version and Feige guides the live-action iteration. Otherwise, every single decision Sony makes with the property is baffling, producing critical and box-office disasters, and they have very little beyond Spidey. In 2023, they've released bombs including 65 and the George Foreman biopic.

Paramount is largely dependent on Tom Cruise not aging. Dungeons and Dragons was a really great film and I hope they forge ahead with the IP, but it underperformed. Transformers Rise of the Beast had a nice opening but is falling fast. With Mission: Impossible, Scream, Sonic, and a promising TMNT relaunch, Paramount may be the best situated studio after Disney, but their box office total will still fall far short of the mouse.

WB is a disaster of historic proportions. They have the IPs but are led by the worst executive in the industry (one of the worst in the industry's history) and don't even have the money to release a full slate of films. They bet the house on The Flash, which is going to prove to be one of the biggest bombs of all time. Shazam flopped hard. Really, its not worth discussing WB very much, because its almost certainly going to be sold again or broken down for parts very soon.

Hollywood is in a transitional phase, but unlike some previous transitional phases (the advent of sound) its unclear what its transitioning into. The clearest analog is the 50s, when a combination of suburbanization, TV, and the Paramount decree left Hollywood panicked and adrift, sinking fortunes into blockbuster musicals trying to make the next Sound of Music but mostly producing colossal bombs. It took years for a new normal to take hold, but it did then and it will again. The entertainment industry thought theaters were dead and streaming was the only answer. That was a huge mistake. Now they have to figure out the balance. The industry thought foreign markets, in particular China, were a bottomless new reservoir of profit. That market has very largely disappeared in the last years for a variety of reasons. What we're seeing is a major industry realignment. A lot of things may change in Hollywood over the next years. But it isn't just a Disney problem.

You’re right that all the studios are in a state of flux. But runaway budgets and an instance on only making tentpoles are absolutely a Disney problem. Cocaine Bear was awful but it cost $30m and grossed $90m. How’s that not a win for the studio? Universal’s also signed a deal with Daniels, which might or might not pan out at the box office. But the studio’s at least trying a mid-budget strategy by mixing creative risk and luring young talent behind the camera.

Disney’s in a bad way because they’ve screwed up their brand identity to the point where they’re not associated with imaginative works of fantasy but corporate production line movie assembly projects. That goes for Marvel, Star Wars, and now animation. Some of those may(!) still be moneymakers but general audiences have grown tired of the blandly predictable corporate filmmaking that Disney represents.

 

[dreday3]

I'm curious to see how Barbie does. In summers past, I would bet money it would be a huge summer popcorn hit (even if it's more women than men going to see it, we can bring a good box office). It's not a kids movie. All the buzz it's getting now, heck I'd pay to see it.

If that doesn't do that well, then I think general public is becoming less inclined to go to movie theatres and are more happy to watch from home. I think we are starting to see a shift. And there isn't much Disney can do about that. And if tides shift and more movies start going to streaming, perhaps Disney + would actually gain momentum?

 

[Willmark]

The first step to fixing anything is identifying the problem, or in Disney’s case the problems.I’m not sure they have gotten to that point.

DAS and Pixar have issues, multiple ones.

Stuff like Indy and Star Wars? Those likewise.

Question is will they get introspective enough to fix it?

Yes, some of this is streaming and a sea change post pandemic. It’s not all of it by a long shot.

Interesting to see what Disney will do.

 

[Jedijax719]

The first step to fixing anything is identifying the problem, or in Disney’s case the problems.I’m not sure they have gotten to that point.

DAS and Pixar have issues, multiple ones.

Stuff like Indy and Star Wars? Those likewise.

Question is will they get introspective enough to fix it?

Yes, some of this is streaming and a sea change post pandemic. It’s not all of it by a long shot.

Interesting to see what Disney will do.

The question is whether it's the actual content being presented or public's willingness to bother with the content. Are the movies that failed SO much worse than the content from before COVID-19? Or are people just not wanting to bother with whatever is being put out there? Besides Endgame and Frozen 2, how many of the 2019 movies would have performed the same if they were released now? And all 2019 movies were out before D+ either launched or reached fruition. Nobody knew what would come out on D+ and how long it would take to get new content on there. COVID sped up the time for release of movies onto D+.

 

[Willmark]

The question is whether it's the actual content being presented or public's willingness to bother with the content. Are the movies that failed SO much worse than the content from before COVID-19? Or are people just not wanting to bother with whatever is being put out there? Besides Endgame and Frozen 2, how many of the 2019 movies would have performed the same if they were released now? And all 2019 movies were out before D+ either launched or reached fruition. Nobody knew what would come out on D+ and how long it would take to get new content on there. COVID sped up the time for release of movies onto D+.

It’s been my contention that Disney has to choose which customers they want going forward, because the answer isn’t/can’t be all of them like it used to be.

That ship sailed a few years ago, there is no going back.

Without going into details there are far too many social and political issues for that to happen anytime soon.

I’ll leave it simply at that to observe the sites rules.

 

[erasure fan1]

and a promising TMNT relaunch,

Really? I don't see it. The trailer looked pretty so so in my book.

And by the way, firing Kathleen Kennedy won't fix anything, because most of the rage at her is fueled by a very lucrative culture-war-hate industry rather then tied to reality, so as soon as she goes the folks screaming about her will just pick ANOTHER Star Wars target, because they aren't about to turn off the deep money stream that inciting rage provides.

Firing Kennedy is no guarantee of sudden star wars success, I agree. Just like replacing Iger doesn't mean anything at Disney will get better. By all accounts, it could absolutely get worse. But I would absolutely take my chances with someone else with star wars. Kennedy has proven her lack of understanding of the star wars brand. If any of the 3 movies she announced come out, I'll be surprised. The Mando-verse film has the best shot. But part of me thinks it will get the Obi-wan, boba Fett treatment and finish up on D+. I can't say I've seen anyone announce so many projects, only to not make them. By my count we have 9 films that didn't get made. And the ones that did get made, had all sorts of problems with two of them needing to be almost entirely reshot. So could it be worse? Sure. But I'll be happy to roll the dice.

 

[BrianLo]

I suspect the streaming option doesn't harm things like Puss in Boots the same way because Peacock doesn't have the same customer base. With a Disney movie you know roughly when it's coming and you're already subscribed.

I just want to say Puss in Boots Last Wish is not exactly a box office juggernaut. Sure it looks good compared to Lightyear and Strange Worlds' atrocious numbers. Though it too is a spin off of a franchise that was at one time more successful than Toy Story (Shrek 2 inflation wise is a bigger movie than any Toy Story one).

Last Wish's success is primarily one of having a proper budget.

I do think they need to slow their roll a bit. Iger's tentpole strategy for a while seemed a bit infallible until every movie stopped popping a billion - it then gets much harder to justify the spend. Sure your Lion Kings and mainline Avengers films can feel free to splurge. But Animation may need some containment.

Or the other option of course is if your streaming is successful financially, sure you can bury 'premium Disney expensive' content in it. But you can't have both - meagre theatrical performance and a pre-profitable streaming business. Something Chapek seemed to really miss.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No Way Home was Sony, not Disney, right?

Avatar had NOTHING to do with Disney.

Lightstorm/Cameron. Disney basically is the distributor. They made money - for sure - but kinda like fox (ironically) when they released the Star Wars prequels…George was the banker.

Discussing Disney movie slate and returns is a big deal for any and all Disney fans…but it can’t start with misleading or loaded questions…

Like representing a movie that it’s gonna be a red line as a success/failure. That’s trying to make black/white concepts grey on purpose.

Leave that on the other thread where it was spun…and have a good discussion here.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Related note:

Ryan Murphy Set to Leave Netflix for Disney

The megaproducer is expected to reunite with Dana Walden at the Mouse House when his nine-figure pact at the streaming service expires.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

This totally goes with my whack theory of Scott Stuber becoming ceo or coo!!

Out with the Willow…in with the Molly!!!!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just want to say Puss in Boots Last Wish is not exactly a box office juggernaut. Sure it looks good compared to Lightyear and Strange Worlds' atrocious numbers. Though it too is a spin off of a franchise that was at one time more successful than Toy Story (Shrek 2 inflation wise is a bigger movie than any Toy Story one).

Last Wish's success is primarily one of having a proper budget.

I do think they need to slow their roll a bit. Iger's tentpole strategy for a while seemed a bit infallible until every movie stopped popping a billion - it then gets much harder to justify the spend. Sure your Lion Kings and mainline Avengers films can feel free to splurge. But Animation may need some containment.

Or the other option of course is if your streaming is successful financially, sure you can bury 'premium Disney expensive' content in it. But you can't have both - meagre theatrical performance and a pre-profitable streaming business. Something Chapek seemed to really miss.

Last wish is actually a really enjoyable movie. That’s what many of Disneys efforts of late are NOT.

And I didn’t detest lightyear…for a reference point.

 

[BrianLo]

Last wish is actually a really enjoyable movie. That’s what many of Disneys efforts of late are NOT.

And I didn’t detest lightyear…for a reference point.

I liked Encanto too. WDAS still has the opportunity for Strange World to be the exception if Wish hits. I'm still positive on Wish.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s been my contention that Disney has to choose which customers they want going forward, because the answer isn’t/can’t be all of them like it used to be.

That ship sailed a few years ago, there is no going back.

Without going into details there are far too many social and political issues for that to happen anytime soon.

I’ll leave it simply at that to observe the sites rules.

It’s not politics…well at least not to THAT level. Politics affecting Disney is always exaggerated. It will pass.

But…I think the real problem is they are trying to tell the audience how to feel…and the reason it’s not working is they decided they DETEST the typical formula. Not everything has to be 1950’s…but a rousing adventure or a heartfelt story isn’t bad it if resembles it…not all the time…but some of the time.
Their push to “balance” looks like mining the past for current grievances and that’s always gonna fail. People don’t want guilt in the entertainment.

I know…crazy, flat world, huh?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I liked Encanto too. WDAS still has the opportunity for Strange World to be the exception if Wish hits. I'm still positive on Wish.

I think their whole year banks on it. Only chance to balance out what could be two more public flops…

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Avatar had NOTHING to do with Disney.

Lightstorm/Cameron. Disney basically is the distributor. They made money - for sure - but kinda like fox (ironically) when they released the Star Wars prequels…George was the banker.

Discussing Disney movie slate and returns is a big deal for any and all Disney fans…but it can’t start with misleading or loaded questions…

Like representing a movie that it’s gonna be a red line as a success/failure. That’s trying to make black/white concepts grey on purpose.

Leave that on the other thread where it was spun…and have a good discussion here.

Disney paid to make Avatar 2, not Cameron.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney paid to make Avatar 2, not Cameron.

Avatar 2 was in development for about 8 years before roberts doped big shot Bob into buying fox….
Perhaps Disney paid fox “back” for it…or even Cameron…
But they had no creative control whatsoever. The timing doesn’t work.

We’re talking Cameron here…not some lap dog like abrams

Filming began 6 months before the announcement of Disney’s INTENT to buy fox…it took 18 months longer to actually buy it.

 

[TP2000]

I just want to say Puss in Boots Last Wish is not exactly a box office juggernaut. Sure it looks good compared to Lightyear and Strange Worlds' atrocious numbers. Though it too is a spin off of a franchise that was at one time more successful than Toy Story (Shrek 2 inflation wise is a bigger movie than any Toy Story one).

Last Wish's success is primarily one of having a proper budget.

Isn't that the key to any business success, from a lemonade stand to General Motors? Having a proper budget that covers costs and then makes at least a modest profit to partially re-invest in future growth?

The truth is Last Wish had a budget less than half that of Lightyear, but did over twice the box office of Lightyear.

The other truth is Last Wish had a budget two thirds that of Strange World, but did almost eight times the box office of Strange World.

If I was Iger right now, I would be shutting down every catering budget on the studio lot, and demanding people now pay to charge their Teslas in the parking structure off Riverside Drive on the days they elect to actually come into work.

 

[Ghost93]

Disney paid to make Avatar 2, not Cameron.

Avatar 2 had already been completely filmed by the time Disney bought 20th century fox. Disney paid to finish much of the CGI but it's hard to say how much due to the circumstances.

 

[Casper Gutman]

So do any of the Disney doomers want to tell me what studio in Hollywood is really knocking it out of the park right now?