I aplologise my naivety on the subject.
So SKY are currently run by just a bunch of shareholders. Comcast are now going to them and buying the shares off them for the agreed price. But they need to gain an overall of 51% of the shares for the deal to go through?
They want the whole 100% so Disney could be quids in here, when they sell their 39%?
Do we Think Disney are really going to bring the Hulk and Marvel theme park rights into the conversation? If they do then I do applaud their admiration of getting back every aspect of the brand.
I believe the negotiations will be serious and professional. To that end, both Disney and Comcast will strategize and go into the discussion with a list. The negotiations will not be "accidental". Both parties will bring "things they would like to have, and things they have to have."
During my education, I have taken a couple of negotiation classes/seminars. I was taught to go in to any negotiation with what is referred to as a "BATNA", or "The Best Alternative To No Agreement". The approach assumes if you can't get your BATNA you walk away. If you are offered anything better than your BATNA, you continue to negotiate for more. In a competitive situation (like last weekend's auction) the winner will be the party who's BATNA yields the greatest return to the owner.
In this strategy, you have to put items on the table which are of interest to the other party, which you will trade away, to get your BATNA (or better).
I am thinking Disney's BATNA
does not include the Marvel Theme Park Rights,
but I do think the rights are on their list. I am also thinking Comcast would like to stop promoting their biggest competitor's IP and replace it with their own. Comcast is moving to match Disney with Consumer Products licensing, so I believe they want to get the Marvel Properties out of their parks. We are talking about it, so it is reasonable to think the Marvel park rights are on Comcasts list of things they will trade away. Giving Disney the ability to have these characters in their parks east of the Mississippi, while maintaining a runway for them to remove the characters from their parks (say 10 years) is (in my opinion) a no brainer.
Comcast can not consolidate Sky with NBCU without effective control of the Sky Shareholder base. They can force a consolidation of all shares once their ownership gets above some threshold (I think in the US this is around 90% or higher... Not sure what it would be in the UK). Until Comcast reaches this threshold, they are going to "play nice" and will have motivation to encourage the consolidation.
I have read here members say Comcast can make Disney's life miserable with HULU because of the terms of the agreement. At least there is an agreement which addresses how the majority owners play together. Here, where there is no such agreement, If Disney wants, they can hold the 39% and make Comcast pay a huge interest cost for a company they can't consolidate, which is growing at about 6 % a year.
It is fun to speculate here... That's why we are blogging each other.... Thanks for the banter.
