Disney’s Q3 FY23 Earnings Results Webcast

[Slpy3270]

So is my math right, down to 146 million D+ subs and the expectation was 151 million? So losing subs while even Netflix gains them?

They actually gained subs outside India. It's Hotstar that caused the fall.

Netflix only "gained" subs because of the password-sharing crackdown, and even then there doesn't seem to be much more room for growth.

Biggest reason to not sell is that Hotstar is huge in India - building up D+ there would be significantly difficult by comparison.

Hotstar is holding profitability back. They need to figure out what to do about that. A joint-venture is more favorable imo.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So is my math right, down to 146 million D+ subs and the expectation was 151 million? So losing subs while even Netflix gains them?

India muddies the data.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

So is my math right, down to 146 million D+ subs and the expectation was 151 million? So losing subs while even Netflix gains them?

Yeah, but take out Hotstar and they were up for D+:

Disney+ non-India subscribers grew from 104.9 in the previous quarter to 105.7 million.

And revenue per subscriber went up, so they can definitely spin this


The average revenue per subscriber at Disney+increased 2% in the quarter. from $7.14 to $7.31 due to higher advertising revenue on their ad-tier.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Biggest reason to not sell is that Hotstar is huge in India - building up D+ there would be significantly difficult by comparison.

They don't WANT to build D+ up there because the ARPU is so low.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The Streaming loss went from $1B last quarter to $0.5B this past quarter. Excellent trajectory.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A Shooting Star (The Wonderful World of Mickey Mouse)

 

[HauntedPirate]

"Lower volumes" at WDW? Must have been the hot weather the past month.

 

[Slpy3270]

Stock is mostly down 1-2%. Guessing a lot of this was priced in.

 

[the_rich]

Obviously not everything is rosy but it was alot better than people were expecting.

 

[Comped]

They don't WANT to build D+ up there because the ARPU is so low.

Indeed, but in 10-20 years when the ARPU is not so low, it's better to have a very well known product. Hotstar is, which is why Disney has kept it since the Fox deal.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Stock is mostly down 1-2%. Guessing a lot of this was priced in.

Wall Street is looking at other 'economic headwinds' such as the strikes.

We'll see if that turns around if Iger re-promises dividends.

 

[Slpy3270]

Obviously not everything is rosy but it was alot better than people were expecting.

The revenue miss is pretty concerning, though.

And I expect the results in November are going to look awful, especially since that's when Indy 5 and Haunted Mansion start to affect results.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Stock is mostly down 1-2%. Guessing a lot of this was priced in.

Yeah, definitely expecting a bad quarter and while bad, so far this doesn't seem a disaster and ways to spin some positives

 

[CaptainAmerica]

"Lower volumes" at WDW? Must have been the hot weather the past month.

Remember that variance explanations are shared in decreasing order of magnitude. "Higher costs" were a bigger problem than "lower volumes" and the "higher costs" were the write-off of Galactic Starcruiser.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Rock On (Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem)

 

[Slpy3270]

Yeah, definitely expecting a bad quarter and while bad, so far this doesn't seem a disaster and ways to spin some positives

The stock was down like 8% after May's results, which weren't awful either but caused a huge panic.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

"Lower volumes" at WDW? Must have been the hot weather the past month.

I know you're joking but the quarter we're talking about is April, May, and June. And "lower" is in comparison to LAST April, May, and June.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

"Corporate expenses was impacted by the costs of an abandoned project. They do not specify what the project was."

Assuming that is Lake Nona?

Explains why they abandoned it now as role it into a quarter with a ton of write downs

 

[Splash4eva]

"Lower volumes" at WDW? Must have been the hot weather the past month.

That be included in next quarter….

 

[the_rich]

The revenue miss is pretty concerning, though.

And I expect the results in November are going to look awful, especially since that's when Indy 5 and Haunted Mansion start to affect results.

It was a small miss though and the eps beat estimates. Where I see the biggest concern is attendance at wdw. As for the movies indy 5 and Haunted mansion are def negatives. We'll have to see if d+ grows, if they make a deal between espn and a league(ideally nfl). There are problems but I think they'll come out the other side.