Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2022 Earnings Results Webcast

[Casper Gutman]

Frozen 2 made $1.4 billion worldwide in 2019. That’s a dying box office? Would it have been better if they’d released it straight to Dis+ and forgone the ticket sales?

IMO the pivot to streaming was Iger’s shortsighted attempt to muscle into Netflix and Amazon territory because at the moment they were the hot new film/tv landscape. But now Star Wars is more about retaining quarterly tv subs than ticket sales, and it barely has any cultural prestige left. Marvel is coasting on a fan base that was built over the 2010s with the theatrical model, and TWDC animation divisions are flailing with what’s become a lackluster return to theaters. (Stay tuned for Strange World.)

Paramount by contrast made a mint on Maverick by holding it back from steaming, and they’ve invested in the lower-budget horror film Smile that has paid off handsomely at the box office. Avatar will make money in large part because it’s made by a filmmaker who understands spectacle and showmanship.

Arguably the biggest problem with Chapek is he seems to have absolutely no feel for the entertainment business. Not sure Iger really did, either, but he could fake it better. It’s far more obvious that Chapek shouldn’t be the head of what is still an entertainment company, end of story.

I think you’re being a bit harsh on Disney and a bit generous to Paramount here, but I agree with a lot of this. The entire film industry lost their collective minds over streaming and decided that what was really a change in the post-theatrical pipeline - which has happened to Hollywood before - meant the entire industry had changed and movie theaters were dead. Disney has actually made that delusion work better then any of its competitors, but every studio is going to have to reevaluate and Paramounts very weak streaming presence has placed them in a good position to be one of the first to do that.

As for Star Wars, between Mandalorian and Andor it’s cultural prestige is probably higher then it has been since the day The Phantom Menace was released.

 

[TalkingHead]

Didn’t see this posted:

Bob Chapek Talks Disney Streaming Profits: “Our Investors Expect Us to Have a Return on That”

Speaking at the Paley Center in New York, the CEO also talked about the future of theatrical films, and Disney's metaverse plans.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

His comments on theatrical releases sound kinda incoherent unsurprisingly. Anyway, this is what the article says about the metaverse:

But he was a little more bearish on the metaverse, or at least the vision seemingly preferred by Meta Platforms Inc.

“I don’t think you will ever be able to have a substitute for the theme park experience,” he said, noting that a day-long experience with food, shopping and live experiences is unlikely to be replicated in a virtual environment.

He did, however, offer one potential example of how Disney could play in the space.

He noted that guests sometimes decide to get off Disney World and Disneyland rides during the attraction, spurring closures or delays.

“Through the magic of technology, we can give you the ability to exit your ride vehicle virtually … And see what makes the Haunted Mansion tick,” he said, adding that a user could then be served the new Haunted Mansion movie on Disney+.

The future is skipping the park because it’s too much of a hassle and too expensive and watching a Mansion ride-through, behind the scenes vids, and a direct-to-video spin-off? This guy’s gonna talk himself out of a job if he’s not careful.

 

[Disstevefan1]

How does Netflix, then, do it?

Streaming, in a way, has saved Box Office disasters (looking at you, Mandalorian, replacing new SW theatrical releases).

Disney Studios, when they're not remaking old IP, consistently puts out bombs that fail financially. And so, now they're almost exclusively creating content for D+. But, it fills the void on D+ that Disney channel B-level entertainment used to fill on cable.

I will agree that too often animated movies went unfortunately directly or too quickly to D+. But that seems to be changing.

And Marvel's D+ series are about stories that would never have been made for theatrical releases.

20th Century and Searchlight are still attempting to make theatrical releases that are less expensive but hopefully popular or award/prestige material.

I love when movies go directly or too quickly to D+ I have had enough of spending too much money for the theater experience.

Now at home we have big screen super high resolution in the comfort of your home and the snacks are better and far less expensive.

 

[Indy_UK]

They won’t but Disney need to treat Disney+ and the cinema box office as a single unit and not separate.

Release colossal titles at the cinema like Avatar, Force Awakens and Avengers and the box office and they should easily help even out and fund Disney+ that will burn through a lot of cash.

Otherwise Disney+ will always be a loss leader for them

 

[TalkingHead]

I think you’re being a bit harsh on Disney and a bit generous to Paramount here, but I agree with a lot of this. The entire film industry lost their collective minds over streaming and decided that what was really a change in the post-theatrical pipeline - which has happened to Hollywood before - meant the entire industry had changed and movie theaters were dead. Disney has actually made that delusion work better then any of its competitors, but every studio is going to have to reevaluate and Paramounts very weak streaming presence has placed them in a good position to be one of the first to do that.

As for Star Wars, between Mandalorian and Andor it’s cultural prestige is probably higher then it has been since the day The Phantom Menace was released.

Good point about Paramount+. Part of Disney’s problem is they’ve become so tied to franchises that they can’t afford a Smile or a Trouble in Paradise. Everything has to be a $200 million event. It’s not only their fault — the star system collapse is also to blame. But for people whose business is creativity, the Dis studios show remarkably little inventiveness when it comes to thinking outside the box.

SW series may be a hit with fans. Outside the first season of Mandalorian, doesn’t seem like they’ve gotten through to the larger casual audience. And they’ve certainly done nothing to generate a wider appetite for new theatrical entries. That’s on Disney for using the franchise to prop up steaming numbers.

 

[TalkingHead]

If Frozen 2 came out in 2024 it would still go to theaters so I'm not sure what point you're making. Chapek talked about this in an interview today. Tentpoles and blockbusters are doing okay. Everything else is dead.

Lightyear?

 

[MisterPenguin]

They won’t but Disney need to treat Disney+ and the cinema box office as a single unit and not separate.

Release colossal titles at the cinema like Avatar, Force Awakens and Avengers and the box office and they should easily help even out and fund Disney+ that will burn through a lot of cash.

Otherwise Disney+ will always be a loss leader for them

Disney simply has to switch from loss leading to charging more. Problem solved.

 

[Indy_UK]

Disney simply has to switch from loss leading to charging more. Problem solved.

While that maybe would be enough for Netflix or any other company, it probably won’t be enough for Disney. They want growth quarter on quarter.

You raise prices, while you’ll loose subscribers as a result, there will surely get to a point where it flatlines?

 

[MisterPenguin]

While that maybe would be enough for Netflix or any other company, it probably won’t be enough for Disney. They want growth quarter on quarter.

You raise prices, while you’ll loose subscribers as a result, there will surely get to a point where it flatlines?

Like it has for theme parks?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Lightyear?

Lightyear was released in theaters and it bombed. That's exactly my point.

Strange World will also bomb.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

As for Star Wars, between Mandalorian and Andor it’s cultural prestige is probably higher then it has been since the day The Phantom Menace was released.

Nobody watched Andor. Rogue One was a fanboy's wet dream but the characters were entirely forgettable. It's a show nobody wanted or needed.

 

[dreday3]

Nobody watched Andor. Rogue One was a fanboy's wet dream but the characters were entirely forgettable. It's a show nobody wanted or needed.

Errr, I know a few people who would strongly disagree with you.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Errr, I know a few people who would strongly disagree with you.

Cool, the streaming ratings say I'm right.

I'm known around these parts as a shill, apologist, pixie-duster. Andor is a flop.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Sorry to harp on this, but this is how Bloomberg is reporting results at the theme parks:

Profit at Disney’s theme-park unit more than doubled to $1.51 billion, due to higher attendance and increased guest spending, but fell short of what analysts were projecting. Hurricane Ian reduced operating income by $65 million.
“The parks number is much lower than we expected,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Geetha Ranganathan said on Bloomberg TV. Inflation could be crimping consumer demand in what has been a strong growth area.

“These results don’t look that rosy anymore,” Ranganathan said.

Disney Erases Almost All Its Pandemic Gains After Earnings Miss

Walt Disney Co. shares fell the most September 2001, dragged down by disappointing advertising sales and costly streaming programming.

www.bloomberg.com

So, according to investors, parks making a $1.51 billion profit is not that rosy. Something is off here.

 

[Crunchie9]

Sorry to harp on this, but this is how Bloomberg is reporting results at the theme parks:

Disney Erases Almost All Its Pandemic Gains After Earnings Miss

Walt Disney Co. shares fell the most September 2001, dragged down by disappointing advertising sales and costly streaming programming.

www.bloomberg.com

So, according to investors, parks making a $1.51 billion profit is not that rosy.

Revenue or profit?

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Revenue or profit?

According to Bloomberg, it's profit.

 

[dreday3]

Cool, the streaming ratings say I'm right.

I'm known around these parts as a shill, apologist, pixie-duster. Andor is a flop.

A flop doesn't mean it's a bad show. It means people are too dumb to understand it.

 

[TalkingHead]

Lightyear was released in theaters and it bombed. That's exactly my point.

Strange World will also bomb.

Tentpoles and blockbusters are doing okay. Everything else is dead.

So which is it?

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

But he was a little more bearish on the metaverse, or at least the vision seemingly preferred by Meta Platforms Inc.

“I don’t think you will ever be able to have a substitute for the theme park experience,” he said, noting that a day-long experience with food, shopping and live experiences is unlikely to be replicated in a virtual environment.

He did, however, offer one potential example of how Disney could play in the space.

He noted that guests sometimes decide to get off Disney World and Disneyland rides during the attraction, spurring closures or delays.

“Through the magic of technology, we can give you the ability to exit your ride vehicle virtually … And see what makes the Haunted Mansion tick,” he said, adding that a user could then be served the new Haunted Mansion movie on Disney+.

The future is skipping the park because it’s too much of a hassle and too expensive and watching a Mansion ride-through, behind the scenes vids, and a direct-to-video spin-off? This guy’s gonna talk himself out of a job if he’s not careful.

What??? A Virtual Interactive theme park! WOW! What a great Idea! Hey, Maybe they could put something like this in that NoBody's Around experience building in the West side area ..We can call it..um..oh I dunno..Chapekquest! Nah, sounds too buisnessy and too depressing and I'm sure your going to need reservations for that piece of schlock...

 

[MisterPenguin]

Nobody watched Andor.

Cool, the streaming ratings say I'm right.

I'm known around these parts as a shill, apologist, pixie-duster. Andor is a flop.

Are you being sarcastic? You're usually not one to just make stuff up.

There's been 1.5 Billion minutes watched of Andor as of the first 5 episodes and Nielsen tracking up to Oct 9.

Every week it made the top ten most streamed original streamer content.

Andor has been well received by critics and audience...