Crowd prediction calendars?

FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

Active Member
Original Poster
I fully realize the traditionally used crowd prediction calendars of the past aren't going to be as reliable as they once were (assuming of course, they were reliable to start with), but as time goes on, it seems to me that the days people are more likely to visit each park aren't likely to change from previous years, within the limitations imposed by capacity caps as managed by the park reservation system. Given all this, I want to plan our March Spring Break vacation as best I can based on the evidence/experience of the past.

My question is: Which crowd prediction calculators have proven more reliable in the past? Is there any objective data that supports any of the sites being more accurate than another, or is the only way to judge based on individual experience/opinion?
 

networkpro

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Advertisement
Here we go again. What worked in the past won't now. As you stated there are capacity limitations as well as other factors such as state quarantine requirements and air travel restrictions that may or may not be in play when you visit next. No matter how much you want to believe it, things just aren't go back to how they use to be overnight.

This is the only one currently that has any accurate information: https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/availability-calendar/

If you want historical stats based forecasting, then Len Testas' Touring Plans can't be beaten.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I fully realize the traditionally used crowd prediction calendars of the past aren't going to be as reliable as they once were (assuming of course, they were reliable to start with), but as time goes on, it seems to me that the days people are more likely to visit each park aren't likely to change from previous years, within the limitations imposed by capacity caps as managed by the park reservation system. Given all this, I want to plan our March Spring Break vacation as best I can based on the evidence/experience of the past.

My question is: Which crowd prediction calculators have proven more reliable in the past? Is there any objective data that supports any of the sites being more accurate than another, or is the only way to judge based on individual experience/opinion?
Touringplans.com is the best out there. They even backtest their predictions so you can see the history of what they predicted and then what the crowd level actually was for each day in the past and you can even drill down into each park and see the average ride wait time both predicted and actually observed. Pretty good stuff and from my experience accurate.
 

JIMINYCR

Well-Known Member
Touring Plans site is about as close to accurate as any can get. Weve relied on their picks and had good success following their suggestions. We do look at the other sites that offer calendars and compare all the numbers, they usually are close. But we have always been flexible in the past and used park hoppers if we found the need to abandon a busier park. Now that PH option isnt available we will just have to make do with what we encounter... unless things change.
 

FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

Active Member
Original Poster
@GoofGoof @JIMINYCR @networkpro This is perfect, thank you! For Touring Plans to get all of your votes is not something I would have expected. I will be purchasing a membership to their site and using their data to make our reservations.

@networkpro As I stated in my original post, I fully realize and expect that the predictions will not be fully accurate/applicable to what we have going now. I just want to use whatever tools are available to make the best guess possible. Historical data is all I can go on at this point, so that is what I will have to use. Thank you for contributing (even if it was begrudgingly). ;)
 

Ldno

Active Member
Touringplans like they said in the past yes, but right now the availability calendar will give you an accurate picture of how the parks will be full of, remember there’s 3 tabs that you can explore Regular theme park goers, Resort Guests and Annual Passholders Calendars between those 3, I learned the weekends are full in DHS because AP holders reservations are full in DHS for them, regular Joe’s are already filling up columbus week and thanksgiving week. I have no idea why Animal Kingdom is sold out these two days but still interesting to keep an Eye out for! There don’t matter now since there’s no fastpasses involved anymore.
 

FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

Active Member
Original Poster
@Ldno Good point re: the availability calendars. I know the parks are very limited in capacity, but I never would have guessed that AK would be sold out this far in advance! That makes me even more keen to be sure my reservations are set for each park ASAP.

Also, Thank you for the +1 for Touring Plans. It is good to know there is one site that stands out so much from the rest.
 

FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

Active Member
Original Poster
First, my apologies for the long post. I sincerely hope none of what I say comes across as being a personal attack or criticism. Communicating intent clearly in written format is notoriously difficult and I don't want my intentions here misconstrued.
Aren’t crowd prediction calendars completely irrelevant now?

Anyone seeing the news in Europe? This is not “ending”...

...sorry to ruin Christmas for everyone.
Somewhat inaccurate for the current situation maybe, but not completely without value.

I have seen what is happening in Europe (and other places around the world for that matter). It is tragic and scary and I hate that numbers are going up when it seemed things were being managed as best they could be for so long. I don't think most people really believe this pandemic is "ending" any time soon; the virus may never truly go away entirely. But that doesn't mean I'm going to put my entire life on hold indefinitely.

In fact, it is BECAUSE my husband and I feel this virus will be with us for quite a while that we made plans the way we did. We are going to do the best we can with the situation at hand. Like many, we have children who are at an age that we don't have a lot of years left to plan family vacations as a full group. I'm hoping for the best (that we get to spend a wonderful week at WDW with a grandparent), but also prepared as best I can be for the worst (we don't go on vacation and end up staying home). If the time for our trip draws near and we don't feel the situation is safe enough for our comfort, we will cancel and try to reschedule our trip for another time.

Living life comes with inherent risks of varying degrees, depending on the choices we make at any given time. In our case, trying to take a vacation at a location we feel is doing everything it can to keep visitors as safe as possible is worth the increased risk vs staying home and going about our day-to-day activities. I can think of no other place we might go where visitors are required to mask up consistently and that is so diligent about sanitizing throughout the day. I would feel safer visiting WDW than eating at certain restaurants in my area, some of which do not require their employees, who are making and serving my food, to wear masks properly and consistently.

I recognize and respect others for deciding what their level of acceptable risk is in their own lives. I also appreciate that there are opportunities for those of us who would like to.

For the record, everyone in my household wears masks any time we're out in public. We do not partake in indoor dining (with the exception of myself and only at one particular restaurant that I have observed acting with customer and employee safety in mind 100% of the time). We don't engage in indoor recreation outside our home. We do not allow our children to visit their friends inside other people's homes, nor allow other people in our own except when necessary, and then only for very short periods of time and only with masks worn at all times. We are doing everything we can to mitigate the risk of infection on our end, but I'm not willing to plan my future as if this will be our reality forever.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
First, my apologies for the long post. I sincerely hope none of what I say comes across as being a personal attack or criticism. Communicating intent clearly in written format is notoriously difficult and I don't want my intentions here misconstrued.

Somewhat inaccurate for the current situation maybe, but not completely without value.

I have seen what is happening in Europe (and other places around the world for that matter). It is tragic and scary and I hate that numbers are going up when it seemed things were being managed as best they could be for so long. I don't think most people really believe this pandemic is "ending" any time soon; the virus may never truly go away entirely. But that doesn't mean I'm going to put my entire life on hold indefinitely.

In fact, it is BECAUSE my husband and I feel this virus will be with us for quite a while that we made plans the way we did. We are going to do the best we can with the situation at hand. Like many, we have children who are at an age that we don't have a lot of years left to plan family vacations as a full group. I'm hoping for the best (that we get to spend a wonderful week at WDW with a grandparent), but also prepared as best I can be for the worst (we don't go on vacation and end up staying home). If the time for our trip draws near and we don't feel the situation is safe enough for our comfort, we will cancel and try to reschedule our trip for another time.

Living life comes with inherent risks of varying degrees, depending on the choices we make at any given time. In our case, trying to take a vacation at a location we feel is doing everything it can to keep visitors as safe as possible is worth the increased risk vs staying home and going about our day-to-day activities. I can think of no other place we might go where visitors are required to mask up consistently and that is so diligent about sanitizing throughout the day. I would feel safer visiting WDW than eating at certain restaurants in my area, some of which do not require their employees, who are making and serving my food, to wear masks properly and consistently.

I recognize and respect others for deciding what their level of acceptable risk is in their own lives. I also appreciate that there are opportunities for those of us who would like to.

For the record, everyone in my household wears masks any time we're out in public. We do not partake in indoor dining (with the exception of myself and only at one particular restaurant that I have observed acting with customer and employee safety in mind 100% of the time). We don't engage in indoor recreation outside our home. We do not allow our children to visit their friends inside other people's homes, nor allow other people in our own except when necessary, and then only for very short periods of time and only with masks worn at all times. We are doing everything we can to mitigate the risk of infection on our end, but I'm not willing to plan my future as if this will be our reality forever.
Good post...

But talking about “life has risks” is a different discussion.

We’re talking About non-essential travel. Which is driven heavily by perception. And at high expense and limited value...that’s a detriment now too.

Disney isn’t expecting crowds for sometime. They’ve told you without saying it in a press release. The signs are there.
 

"El Scorpion"

Premium Member
In the Parks
No
Good post...

But talking about “life has risks” is a different discussion.

We’re talking About non-essential travel. Which is driven heavily by perception. And at high expense and limited value...that’s a detriment now too.

Disney isn’t expecting crowds for sometime. They’ve told you without saying it in a press release. The signs are there.

Yet they want to ostracize the APs. I don't get it.
 

"El Scorpion"

Premium Member
In the Parks
No
If I had to guess (and I’m known to do that)...

They have calculated that the mostly local AP crowd doesn’t generate the per guest spending to increase the overhead to the level it would grow to in employees and logistics to justify spending for it.

I'm just a bit PO'd right now. My pass expired 3/14. But because I got one of those "renew and get 2 months" the last time - they go by the 12 month date not the 14 month one when calculating the extension. So my pass expired. No big deal. Figured I'd just buy an new one. Wrong. And I couldn't get grandfathered into the COVID extension.

My family all has valid APs. I don't. I'm on the "Flex Ticket" now. Which I abhor.


......just my little vent.
 
Last edited:

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm just a bit PO'd right now. My pass expired 3/14. But because I got one of those "renew and get 2 months" the last time - they go by the 12 month date not the 14 month one when calculating the extension. So my pass expired. No big deal. Figured I'd just buy an new one. Wrong. And I couldn't get grandfathered into the COVID extension.

My family all has valid APs. I don't. I'm on the "Flex Ticket" now. Which I abhor.


......just my little vent.

Nope...not doing that. I’ve made my commitment...a million times over. I have the deed, the wedding portfolio, the bar tabs and the stack of restaurant charges a mile high to prove it.

Business is a two way street. I’ll show when it’s fair.
 
Top Bottom